(-5.5) Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars (London) 9:30 AM
Last 49 games, Jags favored only TWICE
London Effect
Jags have played this London game many times – that experience is valuable with this trip’s circumstances being so unusual.
Defensive players for Bills starting to complain that Ryan’s scheme does not suit them. Little to no time to make adjustments with this week’s game being played in London.
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Bills with 97 yards of penalties per game (#1 in NFL; next team with only 78 ypg)
Bookmaker Matt Holt told me on ESPN radio on Monday that Bills are one of the heaviest supported teams by the public this year – the average fan loves to bet Rex Ryan.
Games played Week 8 or before: Jags 3-26 straight-up (9-20 ATS)
Jags last 11 games: sacked 45 times
Jags have given up 10 TD passes but have only 1 INT
(-2.5) Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
Drop Off
Lions after scoring 30 points or more last week: 1-14 ATS
Detroit after a win: covered the next game only 7 of 28 times
Run and Play D
Vikings worst passing offense in league (179 ypg)
Vikings second best scoring defense (16 ppg)
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Detroit gained 546 yards against the Bears last week
(after struggles against the Denver, Seattle, and Arizona defensives the prior three weeks)
Detroit lost key contributors on D line in offseason. Replacements have not played well overall in 2015.
Detroit ATS (since 2011): 27-44-1
Lions have covered only 5 of 18 vs. Vikings
Vegas has downgraded Lions by 5.5 points since the start of the season (second most in NFL)
Detroit giving up most yards per pass in league (9.1)
Detroit worst rushing offense in league (66.5 yards per game; second worst [Saints] gaining almost 20 more yards rushing per game)
Detroit -8 in turnovers (worst in NFL)
(+4.5) New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts
Doesn’t make sense?
Based upon the Vegas power rankings, Colts should be favored by 7.5 points
QB Health
Both Brees and Luck considered less than 100% by those who watch the all-22 film. How healthy each are this week will be a key factor …
Colts bounce back – especially against bad teams
Colts against teams with losing record: 19-4 against the spread
Colts now 17-3 ATS the game following a loss (failing to cover last 2)
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Road team in Saints games (coached by Sean Payton) has covered 10 of last 15. Prior 44 games: road team covered only 6 times.
Saints worst defense in league (409 ypg)
Luck much better at home in career
Home: 21-7 SU (19-8-1 ATS)
Road: 16-14 SU (15-15 ATS)
Colts -6 in turnovers (tied for second worst in league)
Colts #31 in yardage differential (-328)
(NL) Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
Don’t be fooled
Pitt Landry Jones: 8/12 for 168 yards (2/0)
Before last week, QB Landry Jones never played an NFL regular season game. In 3 seasons worth of preseason games, Jones played as BAD as any quarterback in the league.
Vegas values Big Ben to be worth 7 points per game
Scoreboard better than stats
Pitt +6 in turnovers (tied for best in NFL) … remember, turnovers tend to even out over the long run.
Pitt #22 in yardage differential (-161)
Negative Pitt trends
Steelers on road: 14-22 ATS streak
Worse when longer travel: Pittsburgh 3-9 ATS outside of the Eastern Time Zone
Steelers as road favorite: 4-11 ATS
[if favored]
Steelers 2-15 ATS when FAVORED the week BEFORE playing Cincinnati
Steelers vs. opponent with .200 win percentage or lower: 1-10-1 ATS
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Alex Smith last 64 games as a starter: 41-22-1 SU
Last three games: KC Jeremy Maclin: 281 yards on 22 receptions
Wiseguys have supported KC heavy (and unsuccessfully) this season.
(+4) Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins
Miami changes
Four games under coach Joe Philbin: Dolphins had a total of 1 sack. One game under Dan Campbell: 6 sacks
Miami’s new coaching staff executed a scheme change which very much benefited the Dolphin’s D-line performance last week.
Last week’s Miami win inflating line
Early line (before last week’s games): Miami -1.5
Historical home struggles
Dolphins, as a home favorite: 12-40 ATS (back to 2003)
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Hoyer: 24/36 for 293 yards (3/0) … 92.6% QBR
Houston 5th best yardage differential (+270)
Houston’s offense is the fastest paced in the NFL (even faster than Philly)
Wiseguys questioning Bill O’Brain’s coaching.
Arian Foster:
Last week: 53 yards on 18 carries
Prior week: 41 yards on 19 carries
Week before: 10 yards on 8 carries
Road team in Miami games 66-46 ATS
(+9) New York Jets at New England Patriots
Pats keep rolling
Vegas ranks New England as clearly the best team in the league
Pats highest scoring team in league (36.6 ppg)
Tom Brady last four games: 114 completions on 165 attempts for 1411 yards - with 10 TD and 1 interception
Pats at home in regular season NOT laying Double Digits: 27-7 ATS
Laying Double Digits: 5-12 ATS
Jets good
Vegas has upgraded Jets by 5.5 points since the start of the season (most in NFL)
Jets best yardage differential (+553)
Jets best defense in league (269 ypg) and yielding fewest points (15 ppg)
Jets best rushing offense in league (146 ypg)
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15 of last 19 Jets losses by a TD or more
Coach Bowles likes to press corners and blitz – CB Revis perfect fit
(+5.5) Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams
Gurley difference maker
Rams season stats on offense poor:
Rams worst offensive yards per game in league (297)
Rams averaged only 13 First Downs (last four weeks) … league average is over 20
But, Wiseguys expecting even more impactful contributions from RB Todd Gurley
159 yards last week.
146 yards week before
Browns against run
Browns worst in league defending the run (149 ypg)
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Browns have many good players, but not at skill positions. It’s difficult to win with such limitations in the modern NFL.
Last season’s OC Kyle Shanahan departure from Browns a big loss (he’s excelling this year as OC for the Falcons)
Browns Dwayne Bowe: 0 catches this season
Rams defensive front is elite enough to be disruptive – which is necessary to be effective in today’s offensive friendly NFL
(-4) Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans
Titans struggles
Last 17 home games, Titans have covered only TWICE
Ken Whisenhunt: 4-29 SU streak as head coach
Mariota no big deal
Mariota status UNCERTAIN
(Vegas currently values him as worth only 1.5 points per game)
Wiseguys skeptical of Falcons
Vegas ranks Atlanta as only 1 point better than average
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Falcons as favorite: 42-30-2 ATS
Falcons as road favorite: 16-9-1 ATS
Devonta Freeman has 10 TDs over the last four games
Falcons on road: 6-13 SU
Next game after a loss: Atlanta 30-13 ATS (9-10 ATS last 19)
Falcons Off a loss of 6 or more points:
22-8 ATS last 30 (started 17-0 ATS, but 5-8 ATS since)
Atlanta best defense in league against the rush (78 ypg)
Long time between road games for Tennessee: Sept 21 – Nov 1 (four home games and a bye). This is an extremely fertile time for growth for a young team (in theory)
Tennessee: covered only 5 of last 26 games
Mariota sacked 17 times in last four games
Tennessee 3rd best defense in league (313 ypg) … #1 against the pass (184 ypg)
(+3.5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins
Washington banged up
Washington with many injuries last week vs. Jets. Injuries still an issue this week.
Cousins struggling
Washington worst in passing yards per attempt (6.2)
Kirk Cousins has highest interception rate of any active QB with at least 400 career passes. Extremely difficult to win in the NFL turning the ball over
Tampa D better than scoreboard?
Tampa defense is 5th best in yardage allowed but next to last in scoring defense (29 ppg)
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Washington: 6-24 SU last 30 games
Washington O-line scheme/coaching liked by wiseguys
Wash as favorite: 53-84-3 ATS
(+4) Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers 4:05
Surprising offense
Charges O-line has been decimated. Huge issue.
But still …
San Diego #1 offense in league (433 ypg)
San Diego 2nd best yardage differential (+472)
Raiders on road
Last 26 Raiders road games: 3-23 SU
Close Division Series
SD/Oakland: Underdog 11-2 ATS in series
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Rivers with 5 TDs and only 1 Int (last two games)
Chargers defense had only 1 sack first three games – had 10 last three weeks
Raiders vs. team with losing record: 44-87-2 ATS (since 1993)
Raiders 19-9 ATS as road underdogs against division opponent
Though playing better of late - Oakland has scored more garbage points (once game is uncompetitive) than any team in league since start of last season … implying team is even worse than the scoreboard would indicate.
Oakland off bye: 1-11 straight-up (3-9 ATS)
Oakland 2nd worst in league against the pass (299 ypg)
(+3.5) Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
QB change
Vegas says Romo worth 6 points per game
Matt Cassel replacing Brandon Weeden (who has lost 11 straight starts SU and ATS).
Vegas ranks Cassel as a 1 point upgrade.
Road dog with rest
Dallas as dogs by more than a FG: 17-4 ATS
Dallas on road:
1-1 in 2015
Dallas 8-0 SU on road during 2014 regular season (every other team has lost at least 3 road games) (2007 Pats only other 8-0 SU regular season team since 1991)
Dallas defense much improved with recent additions. Last week’s bye was especially valuable – giving Dallas the time to tweak their scheme to take full advantage of these additions. The extra time associated with the bye also helps with a quarterback change.
Surprising Spread
Home field is typically 3 in the NFL. For Dallas to only be +3.5 with a back-up quarterback shows them significant respect and shows a general negativity about the Giants.
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The underdog in Dallas games has covered 69% of the time (59-27 ATS since 2010)
Cowboys, playing within the division: 24-36 ATS
Giants changed offensive coordinators at the start of last season … the transition was rough at stages – but as Manning has become comfortable with the offense, his play has generally improved.
At home: Giants only 2 of 16 winning seasons ATS
SNF: (+3) Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers
Carolina consistent
Win vs. Seattle has fans taking notice, but …
Carolina last 12 games, have outgained (more total yards) opponents 11 times
Vegas has upgraded Carolina by 4.5 points since the start of the season (second most in NFL)
Eagles turnaround
Four weeks into the season (1-3 SU), Philly had played 5 of 6 games on the road (considering last two weeks of preseason). Home games the last two weeks (winning and covering both games).
First four games of the season: Philly opponents had the ball a combined 56 more minutes. Last two weeks, Philly has won the Time of Possession in both games.
DeMarco Murray off his first 100 yard game this season
(prior to last week: 130 yards on 49 carries)
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Ron Rivera starts to seasons (SU)
2011: 1-5
2012: 1-6
2013: 1-3
2014: 2-2
2015: 5-0
Carolina scored 2 TDs on two final drives vs. Seattle
Carolina at home: 13-7-1 ATS
[Carolina] Teams favored the week after playing Seattle: 7-18-3 ATS
Carolina’s defense has yielded only 5 TD passes (with 8 INTs)
MNF: (+8) Baltimore Ravens at Arizona Cardinals
Arizona better than record
Cards two losses this season: -6 in turnovers
(outgaining the victor in both games – by a combined 278 yards)
Carson Palmer has won 17 of 21 starts
Arizona is 22-10 SU last 32 (no matter who the QB)
Losing only 10 times against the spread
Different Directions
Ravens downgraded 7 points by Vegas since start of season (most in league)
Arizona upgraded 4 points by Vegas since start of season (only two teams upgraded more)
How will Harbaugh’s intensity and frustration wear on the team during a lost season?
Huge home field
Arizona Home vs. non Division (since 2013):
11-0 straight-up
9-1-1 ATS (covered spread by 90 net points)
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Arizona has had better W/L record than stats for years – luck or intangibles?
Arizona has allowed only FIVE 100 yard rushers last 33 games
Coach Brice Arians 17-7 ATS as a favorite
Cards at home last 10+ seasons (58-42 ATS)
Arizona blitzing D scheme especially benefits from crowd at home
Arizona #2 in passing yards per attempt (9.1)
Road team has covered only 16 of last 40 Ravens games
Ravens playing first games in 17 years without either Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, or Terrell Suggs anchoring Ravens defense
Baltimore pass rush has been feeble this season.
Ravens off loss: 27-9 the next game (straight-up)
Baltimore #29 passing yards per attempt (6.5)
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Byes: Chicago, Cincinnati, Denver, Green Bay