YTD: 23-16 +0.70 UNITS
4* Arizona Cardinals -3 -125 (GOW) *LOSER*
I said last week that I knew arizona was the "square side" against Detroit for my GOW, but I trust my capping enough to not care about that.. And this is another example. Let's start off with Pittsburgh.. The team has shown absolutely no faith in Vick. They are running wildcat, running the heck out of bell, and basically ask Vick to not lose the game. That may work when your defense plays as well as they have against Baltimore and San Diego, but I can't see that happening against Arizona. This team has simply lit up teams on the scoreboard this season. The steelers have a suspect pass rush, and weak secondary.. And have to face red hot Carson Palmer, who is I believe 17-3 In his last 20 starts as a cardinal, and have to cover Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Floyd and stop Chris Johnson with far inferior personnel. The steelers have done a great job hiding this deficient personnel but I think a great offensive mind like Arians in his Pittsburgh "revenge" game can expose these corners and lack of a pass rush. Vick has struggled big time throwing outside the numbers, and being accurate. No team jumps routes like the cardinals defensive backs, and no team sends more blitzes, which will force Vick to beat them from the pocket. The Steelers offense in the second half against the Ravens had I believe two first downs, and they also struggled mightily against the Chargers, getting one first down in the first 27 minutes of the second half! The steelers have done a great job keeping the game close so Vick can try to work Magic at the end.. But this is a game he is going to have to play big, to keep up with this cardinals offense. The look ahead line for this game had the cardinals -5.5.. And now it's -3, but were the steelers amd Vick really that impressive? I'm not buying it..
3* Green Bay Packers -10 -115 *LOSER*
The Chargers cant rush the passer witnout blitzing. they also can't stop the run to put rodgers in unfavorable down and distances. Outside of Jason Verrett, there corners have struggled mightily.. Awful combination for the Chargers. Not to mention that the Packers defense is playing very good at the moment, and the Chargers OLine is in shambles. They can't sustain drives because of the lack of run blocking.. And Rivers is getting the pocket pushed into his face consistantly. If you can't win at the LOS or control the clock against rodgers in Green Bay, you are in big trouble.
2* Minnesota Vikings -3 -120 *WINNER*
KC has burned me four straight weeks.. this team just isn't very good. The offense was BAD last week, especially without charles against the Bears defense. Alex smith is sensing pressure and flinching in the pocket way to often.. this vikings defense is fast, athletic, and swarms to the ball.. Dink and dunks won't work today.. The vikings can run effectively enough to keep a underperforming Chiefs pass rush in check. Just can't see a vikings team that plays very well at HOME to lose this game.. Everyone wants to remember the San francisco game but this minnesota team is completely different then that team
1* Denver Broncos -4 -110 *LOSER*
Originally I didn't want to lay points on te road with a struggling offense against a hot QB.. But the matchup is great for denver. McCown has done good against teams that can't rush the passer.. But he is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL under pressure.. And we know this denver team puts pressure on the QB. When pressure is in his face, he has the tendency to force passes, which obviously should be a positive for Denver's defense, who has three corners that should shut down the Browns subpar weapons. Peyton needs a running game to keep the down and distance managable, and the Browns have been bad at stopping the run ever since mike Pettine has taken over.. And are also missing there best corner Joe Haden, and pro bowl safety Gibson.
1* San Francisco 49ers +3 -125 *WINNER*
I would Be SHOCKED if this number does not drop. Maybe to PK. The Ravens are a bad team, and shouldn't be laying 3 ON THE ROAD to a 49ers team I have power ranked pretty similar. Baltimore has no pass rush, a struggling secondary, and no weapons for flacco. Vegas hasn't downgraded this Ravens team enough based off reputation.
1* Redskins/Jets under 40.5 *LOSER*
OLine in shambles for washington.. Even though the jets stop the run, washington is gonna try to stay commited to it to keep cousins out of third and long. Bowles played this type of defense against him in arizona and cousins couldn't get anything going but turnovers. Washington plays bend but don't break defense.. Look for long drives and a 20-13 type game.
1* Patriots/Colts over 53.5 *WINNER*