Byes: Miami; Minnesota; NY Jets; Carolina
(+3) Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last 48 games, Jags favored only ONCE
Tampa horrible at home
Tampa has lost 11 straight home games.
Tampa at home: 15-38 ATS
Tampa not playing horribly
Tampa has a positive yardage differential this season
But mistakes from Winston hard to overcome:
Winston with 4 INTs last week
Jags start seasons slow
Games played Week 8 or before: Jags 3-24 straight-up (9-18 ATS)
LAST WEEK
Jax at Colts
Jags Kicker Jason Myers missed a 53 yard FG to win the game. But the Colts called timeout before the snap. Then he also missed the do-over. He missed another potential game winner with 8:13 left in overtime.
Jags rushed for 142 yards
Jags outgained Colts by 105 yards
Jags sacked only three times in last three weeks
(prior six games, sacked 33 times)
Jags with 206 yards of penalties the last two weeks
TB hosted Car
First Downs: TB 25; Carolina 17
TB rookie kicker Brindza in last two week:
missed 5 FGs and 2 Extra Points
(-2½) Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans
Tennessee off bye
Titans playing better of late …
Impressive Week One victory plus
Last week vs Indy: Titans with 8 more First Downs and 55 more yards gained and 10 minute Time of Possession advantage
This is a big improvement over the recent past …
Tennessee: 5-19 ATS last 24 games
Ken Whisenhunt: 4-27 SU streak as head coach
Last 15 home games, Titans have covered only TWICE
Tennessee edge in series
Tennessee has beaten Buffalo 8 of last 9 in this matchup
LAST GAME
Bills LeSean McCoy and Sammy Watkins missed
Bills penalties: 17 for 135 yards last week
(57 penalties on the season – the most by any team through four games since 2005)
Mariota sacked 10 times in last two games
Bookmaker Matt Holt told me on ESPN radio on Monday that Bills are one of the heaviest supported teams by the public this year – the average fan loves to bet Rex Ryan.
(+6½) Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
Harbaugh exploits extra rest
Extra rest off Thursday Night game vs. Pitt
Baltimore 14-2 SU (10-5-1 ATS) under John Harbaugh with greater than 7 days rest.
Flacco feasts on Browns
Flacco 13-1 SU vs. Browns in career (8-5-1 ATS)
Baltimore with big home field edge
Last 60 home games, Baltimore has won 48
Road team has covered only 15 of last 38 Ravens games
MORE
Early line (before last week’s games): Baltimore -8.5
Wiseguys not impressed by Manziel. McCown graded 1 point better (but sill a far below average QB)
Browns have many good players, but not at skill positions. It’s difficult to win with such limitations in the modern NFL.
Last season’s OC Kyle Shanahan depature from Browns a big loss (he’s excelling this year as OC for the Falcons)
Browns Dwayne Bowe: 0 catches this season
Ravens playing first games in 17 years without either Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, or Terrell Suggs anchoring Ravens defense
WR Steve Smith OUT
LAST WEEK: Bal at Pit
Flacco sacked 5 times.
J. Forsett: 150 yards on 27 carries
Vegas downgraded Baltimore even after win vs. Pitt. Since the start of this season, Baltimore downgraded 4 points.
(+7) Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons
Washington stats better
Net Yardage differential:
Washington +380 yards (#2)
Atlanta: +51 yards (#14)
But Atlanta’s perfect SU record
(plus 4-0 ATS this season)
inflates their support
Vegas has upgraded Atlanta by 3 points since start of season (substantial, but a modest reaction compared to the mainstream media)
Washing stats better than record since last year
Washington: 6-22 SU last 28 games
MORE
Falcons as favorite: 42-28-2 ATS
Washington as underdog: 10-18 ATS
Washington O-line scheme/coaching liked by wiseguys
Kirk Cousins has highest interception rate of any active QB with at least 400 career passes.
LAST GAME
Was hosted Phi
Redskins scored go-head TD on 6 minute 90-yard drive (scoring with 26 seconds left)
Wash led 13-0 at halftime
Redskins: 10 penalties for 110 yards
First Downs: Washington 25; Philly 14
Time of Possession: Wash 41 mins; Philly 19 mins
Vegas upgraded Washington by 1.5 points after last week
Atl hosted Hou
Falcons led 42-0
Falcons: 4-0 turnover edge
Falcons scored TDs on TWO fumble returns
Julio Jones: 38 yards on 4 receptions
Devonta Freeman has 6 TDs over the last two games
(+9) Chicago Bears at Kansas City Chiefs
Cutler vs. Clausen
Vegas rates Culter as 2-points better
Bears stats better!
KC outgained this season by a net 157 yards
Chicago has a plus yardage differential this season
Bears results horrible
Bears have covered only 12 of last 36 games ATS
Chicago in last 13 games: outscored 237-98 in First Half
Alex Smith last 62 games as a starter: 41-20-1 SU
MORE
Chiefs as home favorite: 10-21 ATS
KC favored by over a TD: 23-1 SU (18-6 ATS)
KC has thrown only 1 TD pass to a WR since 2013
LAST GAME
Chi hosted Oak
Bears won on 49 yard FG in game’s closing seconds
Bears outgained Oakland by 128 yards
Bears lost C Montgomery to broken leg
KC at Cin
KC scored a total of 21 points on 7 FGS (no TDs)
KC Jeremy Maclin: 148 yards on 11 receptions
KC: second straight gm allowing 300 yard passer (last time prior to that was 2013)
KC outgained Cincy
First Downs: KC 24; Cincy 18
Time of Possession: KC 37 mins; Cincy 23 mins
Vegas downgraded KC by 1.5 points after last game
(+4½) New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles
Philly’s stats bad too
Philly #29 in yardage differential (-318)
Time of Possession this season (minutes)
Atl 35 Phil 25
Dal 40 Phil 20
NYJ 32 Phil 28
Was 41 Phil 19
Opponent combined: 148 minutes (62%)
Eagles combined: 92 minutes (38%)
Note that Philly has played 5 road games in last 6 weeks (counting final two preseason games)
Philly at home
Covered only 11 of their last 36 home games (7-4 ATS last 11)
Have to wonder about the Philly crowd if Eagles start slow.
Look ahead?
Philly has lost 8 of last 9 ATS BEFORE playing NYG
Brees
Saints QB Drew Brees far less than 100% by most accounts.
MORE
When the Eagles are favored for the second week in a row: 5-23 ATS
DeMarco Murray this season: 47 yards on 29 carries
Road team in Saints games (coached by Sean Payton) has covered 10 of last 13. Prior 44 games: road team covered only 6 times.
Last Week: NO hosting Dal
Brees: 33/41 for 359 yards (2/0)
Saints missed FG to win game late. Scored 80 yard TD on second play of OT
(+8½) St. Louis Rams at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay 4-0 ATS this season
Bigger than average advantage at home
GB has outscored opponents 223-47 in the first half of Green Bay's last eight home games. (it’s logical that Green Bay’s recent exceptional entire game home stats should be even better since teams winning by blowout tend to let up in the 2nd half)
Packers covered 12 of 16 laying a TD or more
How to beat Green Bay at Lambeau
Opponent must be able to run the ball
and
get pressure on QB without blitzing
Rams well suited to do both.
Rams offense struggling
Only 13 First Downs last week
(opponent Arizona had 26)
Rams outgained by 119 yards vs. Arizona
Rams benefited from with 3-0 turnover edge
Rams First Downs (league average is around 20)
Week Three: only 12 First Downs
Week Two: only 11 First Downs
Rams ranked #28 yardage differential (-271)
Although Wiseguys expecting impactful contributions from RB Todd Gurley (146 yards last week)
MORE
Jeff Fischer strong as underdog throughout his coaching career
winning 59% of the time against the Vegas number when getting points [97-67 ATS]
Rams defensive front is elite enough to be disruptive – which is necessary to be effective in today’s offensive friendly NFL
Vegas ranks Packers as second best team in NFL
Last week: GB at SF
Packers rushed for 162 yards
Rogers last two weeks: 6 TDs; 0 INTs
(+3) Seattle Seahawks at Cincinnati Bengals
Cincy 4-0 ATS this season
Early line (before last week’s games): Seattle favored by -2.5 over Cincy
Cincy strong at home
Cincy has covered 15 of 19 regular season home games
Road team in Cincinnati games has covered only 13 of last 40
Seattle (starting in 2005): 68% ATS at home (60-28-2)
On road during same period: 41% ATS (36-51-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 111-64-3 ATS (63% winners)
Seattle defense trending upwards
Chancellor back last two games:
Seattle has allowed only 3 points in the First Half of the last two games.
Seattle has not allowed an offensive TD in the last two games
Seattle O-line struggling
Russell Wilson sacked 10 times in the last two games
Initially it was thought that Seattle’s line needed experience – now, Wiseguys are speculating the players are just not that good.
MORE
Vegas ranks: Seattle #3 and Cincy #4
Last 22 times Seattle an underdog, lost against the spread only FIVE TIMES
Seattle vs Non-Div foes: 31-17-1 ATS
Seattle thinner on defense than in recent years – which might not hurt for a single game, but a significant negative factor on the season
Seattle also lost key coaches this offseason.
Seattle: 35-18-1 ATS overall last 54 games
Seattle: 20-9-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record
Seattle TE Jimmy Graham has about half as many receiving yards as he had after four games last season.
LAST WEEK
Sea hosting Det
Seattle S Chancellor knocked the ball loose from Calvin Johnson near the goal line late in the game to save the victory
Seattle: 3-1 turnover edge
Marshawn Lynch out (first missed game since Week 7 of 2011)
(-2½) Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions
Arizona still hot
Lost hosting Rams last week deceiving
but
Arizona -3 in turnovers in game
Cardinals outgained Rams by 119 yards
Cardinals held to FGs on 4 of 5 trips to the Red Zone last week
(First three games: Cardinals scored touchdowns in 11 of 12 trips to the red zone)
Arizona is 21-9 SU last 30 (no matter who the QB)
Losing only 9 times against the spread
Best vs. Worst
Arizona best yardage differential in league (+393)
Detroit worst yardage differential in league (-361)
Carson Palmer has won 16 of 19 starts
Vegas has downgraded Detroit by 4 points since start of season
MORE
Arizona has had better W/L record than stats for years – luck or intangibles?
Cards on road 45-59-4 ATS (since 2002)
Detroit lost key contributors on D line in offseason. Replacements have not played well overall in 2015.
Detroit Against The Spread (since 2011): 27-42-1
LAST WEEK
Lions (at Sea) fained only 12 First Downs and 256 total yards (only 53 yards rushing)
Ari hosting StL
Allowed only fifth 100 yard rusher allowed in past 31 games
Palmer sacked 4 times (sacked only once the first 3 games)
(-8½) New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys
Dallas QB
Vegas says Romo worth 6 points per game
Brandon Weeden has lost 10 straight starts SU and ATS (5-18 SU in career starts)
Positive Dallas trends
Dallas as dogs by more than a FG: 17-3 ATS
Cowboys: As a home underdog since 1990 (28-12 ATS)
Dallas when underdogs vs AFC: Covered 10 straight
Patriots red hot
Last Game
Patriots scored on all 9 of its drives with Brady at QB
First Downs: Patriots 35; Jags 15
Time of Possession: 10 minute advantage for Pats
Tom Brady last two games: 71 completions on 101 attempts for 824 yards - with 5 TD and 0 interceptions
Vegas ranks Patriots as clearly the best team in the NFL
MORE
Opponent who have lost 2 or more straight games, Patriots 33-16 ATS (in Tom Brady era)
Belichick with Pats off classic bye (12, 13, or 14 days rest): 13-16-1 ATS
Narrative is that the Dallas D is much improved. Vegas is not impressed. Pro Bettor David Malinsky says the Cowboys D has “a chance to be average at best.”
(multiple defensive players returning for Dallas this week)
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 69% of the time (59-26 ATS since 2010)
(-4½) Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
Denver favored 49 of their last 52 games
Coaching advantage
Oakland coach Jack Del Rio was not only the DC of Denver, but was the interim head coach when Fox was out for medical reasons. This insider knowledge is a real advantage for Oakland.
Denver positive trends
Broncos have won 13 straight divisional road games (SU) – an NFL record (12-1 ATS record)
Peyton Manning (w/Denver) vs. Oakland: 6-0 SU and ATS
Denver tends to blowout
Since the start of 2013 season,
Denver has won 31 games
27 of the 31 by at least a touchdown
Denver as a favorite (with Manning): 31-19 ATS
MORE
Raiders 19-8 ATS as road underdogs against division opponent
Oakland at home: 34-61-1 (since 2003) … including 8-15 ATS last 23
Though playing better of late - Oakland has scored more garbage points (once game is uncompetitive) than any team in league since start of last season … implying team is even worse than the scoreboard would indicate.
Wade Phillips strong addition to Denver defensive coordinator
Peyton Manning has led his team to a 4-0 record SEVEN times. No other quarterback in NFL history has accomplished this more than four times.
LAST GAME
Den hosted Min
Manning with 2 INTs and 1 TD
Denver rushed for 144 yards (averaged just 57 yards rushing entering the game)
Denver led 13-0 with two minutes left in 2nd Q
Denver kicked FG with 1:51 left (with score tied 20-20)
Oak at Chi: Bears outgained Oakland by 128 yards
SNF: (+7) San Francisco 49ers at New York Giants
West Coast Team …
West Coast teams have advantage in night games (no matter if home or away). In the 4th Q, the east coast team’s body clock is nearly midnight (problematic) … while body clock 3 hours earlier for west coast team.
Traveling east:
49ers 13-4 ATS last 17 games played in Eastern Time Zone
Scoreboard …
49ers worse than scoreboard …
SF dominated by opponents the last two weeks:
First Downs: opponents 46; SF 18
Yards: opponents 808; SF 352
Time of Possession: opponents 74 mins; SF 46
Kaepernick last two weeks: 22/44 for 227 (0 TDs; 5 INTs)
Giants better than scoreboard …
Giants have had at 10 point or greater 4th Quarter lead in all four games this season.
Vegas upgraded Giants by 1.5 points since last week – but still consider them to be a below average team.
MORE
Giants have covered 7 of 9 vs. San Fran
At home: Giants only 2 of 16 winning seasons ATS
Wiseguys feel as if San Fran’s coaching staff has been overmatched.
MNF: (+3) Pittsburgh Steelers at San Diego Chargers
Pittsburgh on road
Steelers on road: 13-22 ATS streak
Worse when longer travel: Pittsburgh 2-9 ATS outside of the Eastern Time Zone
QB Vick
Overrated due to big name
but
Vick’s performance last week was with only a few day’s prep before Thursday’s game. Should be improvement with 10 days before this game.
San Diego key factor
Charges O-line decimated last week. The possible return of these players is KEY for this game.
Early line (before last week’s games): SD -6.5
If o-line is mostly back, this line move is likely unwarranted (meaning value on SD)
MORE
Bounce-back post Baltimore disappointment: Steelers, after NOT covering vs. Ravens, lost next game against the spread only 1 of last 11.
Last twelve games, QB Rivers has 24 TDs and 20 INTs
Under coach McCoy, when playing out of division
San Diego has lost only 9 of 25 ATS
(The first time San Diego plays a team,
Mike McCoy has been able to hide the team’s limitations
with elite coaching, but more familiar matchups have been a problem)
LAST WEEK
SD hosted Cle
Getting a second try due to a penalty (after apparent miss), SD kicker Jambo kicked a game-winner as time expired
Chargers played with significant O-line injuries
Chargers defense had only 1 sack coming in – had 4 on Sunday
Pit hosted Bal
Line adjusted from Pitt -3.5 to Balt -3 due to absence of Big Ben
Flacco sacked 5 times.
Steelers: 2-0 turnover edge
Le”Veon Bell: 129 yards on 22 carries
Kick Josh Scobee missed 2 key FGs. Soon after cut by Steelers. Signed K Chris Boswell.