The CFL 2014 season saw team scoring averages plummet. Given this, the league was proactive and changed some rules to increase scoring. The two key changes were:
1. Defenses are no longer allowed to contact receivers 5 yards past the line of scrimmage.
2. The interior offensive line man cannot release on punts until the ball is kicked
YTD, these changes have not increased scoring. However, typically scoring averages in football go up after a few weeks. Specifically, in the NFL scoring starts increasing weeks 3 and 4. Given this, I fully expected CFL scoring to go up the same weeks. However, the recent data points to week5 as the 'trigger' point for more offense. Specifically I show during the last 2 years in the CFL:
Week2: 45.1
Week3: 42
Week4: 50
Week5: 49
I AM convinced those rules changes WILL result in higher scoring. However, given the recent data, I will wait to selectively fire in 'overs' until week5. CFL only has 2 preseason games, that could explain why it takes longer for the offenses to get in gear.
Bottom line, with a recent history of higher scoring starting the 2nd month of the season AND with the new rules, I WILL by on some OVERS........starting in 2 weeks.
On the capping front, my 2* CFL best bet of the week is UP!
http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY