http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY
+130 units YTD, I have a 3* BEST BET going 11am PST Today!
"Good teams are over-valued, bad teams under-valued. ALL the value is to fade the public".
Good advice in 1998. TERRIBLE advice in 2014. Based on the last 25 year's results, 2014 NFL season wins were set basically 'capping' the maximum season win numbers at 11 on the high end, 5 on the low.
How did that work out?
Den OVER 11, winner
Sea OVER 10.8 (means line was OVER 11+110), winner
NE OVER 10.75, winner
GB OVER 10.25, winner
It is worth mentioning the other favorites to win their Divisions, Cincy,Indy,N.O., Philly went 3-1 over as well!
How about on the bottom?
Jax UNDER 5 wins, winner
Oak UNDER 5 wins, winner
Like the MNF home dog myth, the season win myth of parity persists.......the market 'knows" you make money betting UNDER 11 and higher, and OVER 5 or lower, but the problem is that the league has changed AND the market is dealing these lines differently. You destroyed the books simply betting good teams 'over', bad teams "under' the last two years, and frankly I don't think will change!