2014 NFL Record
55 – 49 @ +1.1 Units
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Week 16 Plays:
#1: UNDER 40.5 SD/SF (LOSS)
#2: Chicago Bears +10
Yes, I know that Clausen stinks or else the line wouldn’t be where it’s at. But maybe a change at QB is all that the Bears need to actually show some ‘heart’ in a game. At worst, starting Clausen should net Forte a few more touches, which is a very good thing. Divisional game and a massive home underdog. We all know what happened in the Philly/Washington game yesterday. Why can’t the Bears pull off an upset also, or at the very least, keep this one tight?
#3: Atlanta Falcons +5.5
Big divisional game between two teams with top-10 offenses and horrendous defenses. Saints are coming off a road win against the Bears, while the Falcons are off a loss at home. Julio Jones is back and hopefully he’s not just being used as a decoy. Regardless, this one feels like another 3-point divisional game here. Falcons are under-valued.
#4: New York Jets +9.5
I think we’re seeing a theme here, as here’s another divisional home underdog. This one could be the last time that Rex Ryan coaches against Belichick as a coach of the Jets, and I would expect him to pull out all the stops. Keep in mind that 4 of the last 5 meetings were all within 3 points, so clearly Ryan knows how to stay competitive against New England. When these teams met earlier this year, Pats were -9.5 home favorites. Jets almost won that one. Now the line is pretty much the same while the Pats are on the road. Lots of line-value here.
#5: Cleveland Browns +5.5
Yeah, Joe Haden is out and Johnny “Money” is once again the starter for Cleveland. But a more important factor here is that we have a 7-7 squad as a 5.5 point underdog against a team that is 5-8. Don’t forget that Cleveland was a facing a divisional opponent last week, who were charged up to stop Manziel. Now they get to play a non-divisional game, against a pretty bad Panthers squad. Carolina has the 16th ranked passD and I don’t see them being as successful against Manziel as Cincy was last week. I like Cleveland to play a competitive game here.
#6: Oakland Raiders +7
Can you say a ‘letdown’ and a ‘sandwich’ game combined for Buffalo? After an absolutely huge home win against Green Bay last week, Buffalo plays @ Oakland this week, only to finish up their season @ New England. The win against Green Bay and a game @ New England next week just don’t get any bigger. Oh but of course they have to fly cross-country to play the hapless Raiders. As good as this Buffalo D is, they have allowed 5.4 RY/A the last two weeks and a total of 291 yards on the ground. Oakland’s run-game isn’t as prolific as Denver’s or Green Bay’s, but it could still cause Buffalo problems. Remember, this Buffalo O isn’t much better than Oakland’s so if we get a let-down game from the Bills’ D (and clearly I expect that), we should see a pretty competitive game here.
#7: Indianapolis Colts +3.5
TY Hilton is out but as long as Luck is upright, this Colts team will be alright. Plus I think Murray playing with a broken hand is a bigger issue as Dallas’ offense revolves around him. In addition, Doug Free is out and Zack Marting questionable, so this Dallas O-line won’t be at 100% for the game. Vontae Davis is the 2nd ranked CB in the league this year and I like him to at least slow down Dez Bryant. Two evently matched teams in this one, but I’ll play the juicy number on the Colts.
#8: Arizona Cardinals +8.5
Holy cow, another large divisional home underdog. I just can’t help myself. I know Arizona is down to their 3rd and 4th string QB’s but if anyone can get something out of their QB’s, it’s Arians. Plus the weak link of this Seattle team is their O-line, and two key starters, Unger and Okung, are out. Unleash the blitz!
#9: Denver Broncos -3 (MNF)
Prime time game and Andy Dalton is starting for Cincy. But more importantly, this 8th ranked Denver run-game will take on Cincy’s 30th ranked runD. Peyton Manning is salivating. Broncos are a better team and I expect them to control this game.