First NFL week in modern point spread history (last 25 seasons) with at least 5 home underdogs of more than a touchdown.
NFL Home underdogs getting MORE than 8-points are 28-9 ATS (lost 5 of 8 ATS)
Saturday: (+1) SAN DIEGO (8 - 6) at SAN FRANCISCO (7 - 7) - 12/20/2014, 8:25 PM
SF Motivation?
Vegas ranks San Fran as average (15th best team in league)
Harbaugh has always been hard on players … motivation a question now that the team is eliminated from playoffs plus with the coach very unlikely to return.
Vegas ranks San Diego a half-point worse than SF (meaning below-average)
So SF being this small a favorite only makes sense if SF is far from motivated
Beat Up?
[San Fran] NFL teams favored the week AFTER playing Seattle: 7-23 Against The Spread streak
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LB Chris Borland doubtful … has led 49ers in tackles last 6 straight games
49ers have lost only 12 of last 30 games ATS
SF with Harbaugh: 39-26-5 ATS overall
Kaepernick has been sacked 36 times over the last 8 games
49ers have scored 33 points in the 4th quarter this entire season (worst in the NFL)
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Under coach McCoy, when playing out of division
San Diego has lost only 6 of 20 against the spread
(The first time San Diego plays a team,
Mike McCoy has been able to hide the team’s limitations
with elite coaching, but second matchups have been a problem)
SD 13-6 ATS as a regular season underdog
December or later: San Diego, December and later: 37-13 SU (30-20 ATS)
Last eight games, QB Rivers has 12 TDs and 11 INTs
(-7.5) PHILADELPHIA (9 - 5) at WASHINGTON (3 - 11) - 12/20/2014, 4:30 PM
How bad is Washington?
RG3 has not started and finished a Redskins victory since Week 9 of 2013 vs Chargers (Nov 3, 2013)
Some in Vegas grade RG3 equal to McCoy … some rate McCoy slightly higher
Anti-Philly Trend
When the Eagles are favored for the second week in a row: 5-20 Against the Spread
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This is a Philly team that has won 16 of last 22 regular season games
Philly has lost 7 of last 8 ATS BEFORE playing Giants
Last week:
Time of Possession: Dallas 42 minutes; Philly 18 minutes
Philly -3 turnovers
(at one point in the game, Dallas had gained 167 yards compared to 0 yards for Philly)
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Redskins lost 8 of 9 against the spread AFTER playing Giants
Washington: 3-19 SU last 22 games
Washington as underdog: 6-16 ATS
RG3 sacked 7 times last week
(+6.5) MINNESOTA (6 - 8) at MIAMI (7 - 7) - 12/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Crushed Dreams
Miami falls into what the Vegas guys call THE-DREAM-CRUSHER
which is when a team falls short of their season goal
in Miami’s case, the goal was the playoffs
and the next game AFTER the dream has been crushed is often a letdown
Miami at home
Dolphins, as a home favorite: 12-37 ATS (back to 2003)
Dolphins, as a home favorite of 6 or more points: 1-13 ATS
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Vikings in last ten weeks have yielded 36 sacks (4 last week)
Vikings in December: 10-1 ATS
[Minny] NFL road underdogs directly off road loss: 168-104-3 (62% since 2003)
Last week:
Game Yardage: Minny 360; Detroit 233
First Downs: Minny 21; Detroit 11
Time of Possession: Minny 35 minutes; Detroit 25 minutes
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Miami has given up 769 rushing yards their last four games
6 of 7 Miami’s wins this season have been by 13 points or more
Road team in Miami games 63-45 ATS
Uncertainty around coach Philbin a significant distraction
Dolphins last 7 quarters: outscored 69-13
Miami has played 10 of 14 games vs. teams currently with a winning record
(+11.5) GREEN BAY (10 - 4) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 12) - 12/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Biggest home underdog for TB since 2009
Packers on road
Green Bay ON THE ROAD is only 3-4 this season
getting outscored by 34 points in those games
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Packers covered 10 of 14 laying a TD or more
Green Bay defense much improved. Key factor is post-bye schematic change (moving Clay Mathews to an unusual hybrid ILB). If you look at the competitive portions of the last give GB games, defense has been outstanding.
Packers overall in December: 23-13 ATS
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Tampa in December: 11-26-1 ATS (last 8 seasons)
TB’s D seems to be growing more comfortable with defense scheme
but unit is faced with multiple injuries this week
TB has outgained opponents 4 of last 7 games
(they had been outgained their 10 prior games)
Tampa at home: 14-35 ATS at home
As a home underdog: 6-22 against the spread
Love Smith’s deep knowledge of GB is an advantage
(-8.5) DETROIT (10 - 4) at CHICAGO (5 - 9) - 12/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Biggest road favorite for Detroit on record (prior 25 seasons)
Most points Detroit favored at Chicago prior: -3 in 1999
Clauson for Cutler
Sportsbooks moved from -4.5 to -6.5
Bettors kept betting Detroit up to -8.5
Respected bettors tell me too much of an adjustment. Cutler may be that much better
How bad are Bears?
Bears at home: covered only 3 of last 17 home games
Chicago in last eight games: outscored 166-42 in First Half
Trestman era: Bears have covered only 9 of last 30 games ATS
Trends against Detroit
Detroit struggles on road [25-42-3 ATS from 2006]
Worse on grass [covered only 5 of 16]
Worse as road favorites: 4-16 ATS
Detroit after a win: covered the next game only 7 of 26 times
Detroit in December: 3-12 ATS (last four seasons)
Lions have lost only ONCE ATS last 9 games vs. Bears
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Detroit (overall since 2011): 25-37-1 ATS
Detroit on 2 or more game winning streak: 9-18 ATS
Calvin Johnson last three games: 23 catches for 357 yards and 3 TDs
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17 times Bears have played a second straight home game: covered spread only TWICE
Bears in games that over/under total greater than 44: 18-48 ATS
Bears 3-13 ATS in division
Bears have ZERO covers in last 11 games BEFORE playing Minnesota
[Bears ] NFL team playing 3rd straight home game, losing first two: 20-9-1 ATS
[Bears] NFL teams the week AFTER playing the Saints, teams are 56-91-4 ATS (since 2005)
(+6) ATLANTA (5 - 9) at NEW ORLEANS (6 - 8) - 12/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Saints at home???
Last 24 home games under Coach Payton at home: 19-5-1 ATS (lost 5 of 6 ATS)
Road team in Saints games (coached by Sean Payton)
have covered 7 STRAIGHT
Prior 44 games: road team had covered only 6 times
How bad is Atlanta
Atlanta’s last 24 games against teams other than Tampa Bay
they’ve won only 5 times
Falcons on road: 3-12 SU (losing 5 of 8 by double digits)
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Next game after a loss: Atlanta 29-13 ATS (8-10 ATS last 18)
Falcons Off a loss of 6 or more points:
21-8 ATS last 29 (started 17-0 ATS, but 4-8 ATS since)
Falcons outscored 118 to 64 in 4th quarter (last twelve games)
Last week, Falcons ran only 3 offensive plays the final 10:21 of game vs. Pitt
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Saints with Coach Payton: 29-19-1 ATS last 49 games
(-10.5) NEW ENGLAND (11 - 3) at NY JETS (3 - 11) - 12/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Biggest home underdog for Jets since 1995
Strong Finish
Last two weeks of regular season: 22-6 ATS (in Belichick era)
Double Digits Tough
Patriots as double digit favs: 6-21 ATS
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Vegas ranks Patriots has best team in league
The Patriots have won seven games this season by at least 22 points
Road team in New England games: covered only 9 of last 32 games
Patriots +90 turnovers last 78 regular season games
Wiseguys like to fade popular teams
but that hasn’t worked against New England
If you had bet $1000 AGAINST the Pats & Bellichick every game since Brady’s first start, you’d be DOWN $53,000!
Patriots have covered only 3 of last 10 games as road favorites.
Patriots playing Jets in New York: 12-3 ATS
Last week, NE outgained Miami by only 11 yards in blowout win
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Whatever negatives he has, Rex Ryan IS a motivator (key with a team out of playoffs late in season)
Geno Smith career: 21 TDs; 40 turnovers
14 of last 17 Jets losses by a TD or more (2 of last 3 by less than TD)
Jets covered 8 of 11 as underdog by a TD or more
(+3) KANSAS CITY (8 - 6) at PITTSBURGH (9 - 5) - 12/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Eye-Popping Trend
Steelers have lost 15 of 16 games ATS when FAVORED the week BEFORE playing Cincinnati
KC on road
Last 16 road games, Chiefs have lost only 3 TIMES against the spread
Andy Reid has excelled away from home
covering an amazing 62% of road games in his career (83-51 ATS)
Hard To Believe
Chiefs have not allowed a 300-yard passer this season
KC Wide Receivers have ZERO touchdown catches this season!
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Alex Smith last 56 games as a starter: 39-16-1 SU
Road team in KC games: 13-6 ATS
(+3.5) CLEVELAND (7 - 7) at CAROLINA (5 - 8 - 1) - 12/21/2014, 1:00 PM
Browns Offense
Browns have only 2 offensive TDs in last 3 games
Browns have thrown 10 interceptions since their last passing touchdown
Browns have now gone 4 straight games with no TD passes and 2+ Int. Last time that happened was to the Bucs in 1977.
Vegas would upgrade Browns if Hoyer started over Manziel
Panthers QB
Some pro bettors grade Derek Anderson within 1-point of Cam Newton.
QB Derek Anderson now a surprisingly not horrible 20-25 SU in his career as an NFL starter
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Dominated last week:
Game Yardage: Bengals 347; Browns 107
Time of Possession: Bengals 39 minutes; Browns 21 minutes
Browns gained only 5 First Downs
Manziel: 10/18 for 80 yards (0/2) … QBR of 1.0
Browns star CB Joe Haden sustained a shoulder injury and CB Justin Gilbert a concussion.
[Browns] Underdog off 30+ point loss: 125-81-9 ATS (61% since 1990)
Panthers in December: 23-12 ATS
Carolina at home: 11-5-1 ATS
Carolina has outgained opponents its last 4 games
Panthers had been outgained their prior 9 games.
(-5) BALTIMORE (9 - 5) at HOUSTON (7 - 7) - 12/21/2014, 1:00 PM
One Key Factor
The early line on this game
(before last Sunday)
had Houston actually favored
But with Fitzpatrick now OUT
and Case Keenum IN
the spread has moved 6 FULL points!
But that is NOT justified
Keenum started 8 games for Houston last season
playing not much worse than average
producing a quarterback rating in 2013 better
than Joe Flacco and better than Eli Manning
He was with Houston’s new coaching staff during training camp
and throughout the preseason
and he’ll have Wide Receiver Andre Johnson back
against Baltimore cornerbacks severely thinned by injuries
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Road team has covered only 11 of last 31 Ravens games
Ravens secondary extremely thin (due to injury)
(+6.5) NY GIANTS (5 - 9) at ST LOUIS (6 - 8) - 12/21/2014, 4:05 PM
4th straight game Rams favored
Prior 59 games, favored only 9 times
Rams Defense
Rams becoming more comfortable with Gregg Williams defensive scheme:
First five games of season, Rams had 1 sack.
Next 9 games: 35 sacks
Rams have not given up a TD in 3 games
(2011 Dolphins last team to accomplish this)
But …
Loss last week eliminated Rams from playoffs
Word from guys who watch film is Giants are actually improving on offense as they become even more familiar with this season’s new scheme.
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Giants defense have 22 sacks in the last three games
In Giants 9 losses this season, 6 have been by double digits
Coach Caughlin is 60% vs. the Vegas number
on the road in his career [56-38 ATS]
(-6.5) BUFFALO (8 - 6) at OAKLAND (2 - 12) - 12/21/2014, 4:25 PM
Biggest road favorite for Bills since 2008
Bills Surging D
Last two weeks: Bills have held P. Manning and A. Rodgers 358 passing yards, 0 TD, 4 INTs
Bills defense held Peyton Manning to worst QB Rating since 2008 and Aaron Rodgers to worst in his career!
Raiders even worse than scoreboard?
23 offensive touchdowns from Oakland this year … 7 of them garbage TDs (less than 2 minutes trailing by double digits)
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Orton’s last 41 starts: 13-28 straight-up
[Bills] NFL Team off win as home dog: 235-320-17 ATS (42% since 1994)
Oakland at home: 33-60-1 (since 2003) … including 7-14 ATS last 21
(+3) INDIANAPOLIS (10 - 4) at DALLAS (10 - 4) - 12/21/2014, 4:25 PM
Line seems BIG
Dallas has a below average home field advantage
covering only 7 of their last 29 as home favorite
Vegas ranks Indy as 2 points better than Dallas.
Cowboys leader DeMarco Murray will be less than 100%
When Dallas is favored after winning the last game
(giving them another reason to lose focus)
the Cowboys are 3-17 against the spread
Motivation?
So the market is likely questing Colts motivation in order for line of Dallas -3 to make sense.
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Much better at home over Luck’s career (reg season and playoffs)
Won 20-5 SU (17-7-1 ATS) at home; 13-11 SU on road (13-11 ATS)
Andrew Luck: 29-16-1 ATS during regular season in his career
Colts in December: 11-4-1 ATS
Colts outgained by Texans last week
Andrew Luck has the most first half turnovers in the NFL this season (13)
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The underdog in Dallas games has covered 71% of the time (55-23 ATS since 2010)
Late in the season is not the time to back the Cowboys.
Since 2005, Dallas has covered only 33% of games in December (13-26-1)
(with NOT A SINGLE winning December against the spread in all those years)
On a per snap basis, Dallas defense just as bad as last year – but since offense is controlling the ball, they benefit from having to defend 10 LESS snaps per game on average.
Murray has rushed for 100 yards or more 11 of 14 games this season
As a road favorite, Dallas has covered only 6 of last 19
(-8) SEATTLE (10 - 4) at ARIZONA (11 - 3) - 12/21/2014, 8:30 PM
Biggest underdog for any 11-3 team in modern point spread history (last 25 seasons)
Arizona just keeps winning and covering
Arizona is 18-5 SU last 23
Losing only 5 times against the spread
QB a Problem
Palmer 3 points better than Stanton
Stanton 3 points better than Lindley
Lindley 2 points better than Thomas
Seattle on road
Thought even better at home,
Seattle last 20 on road: 14-6 ATS
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Last four Seattle opponents: Arizona, SF, Philly, SF
Seattle: 18-6-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record
Seattle (starting in 2005): 69% ATS at home (57-26-2)
On road during same period: 42% (35-49-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 106-61-3 (63% winners)
Seattle: 31-14-1 ATS overall last 46 games
Seattle in December: 13-2-1 ATS (last four seasons)
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Cards at home last 10+ seasons (56-40 ATS)
Arizona blitzing D scheme especially benefits from crowd at home
Arizona has allowed a hundred yard rusher only ONE TIME in past 24 games
Cards DC Todd Bowles receiving strong notices from Wiseguys
Arizona has outscored opponents 102 to 43 in 4th quarter this season (17 of those points came in one game against Den)
Arizona with 25 sacks over their last six games (after only 8 the first eight games of season)
With Lindley at QB, Vegas ranks Arizona #20 in league (3-points worse than average)
[Arizona] Home team off Thursday road win: 22-11 ATS (since 1989)
[Arizona] NFC West teams as underdogs: 31-16-1 ATS
(-3) DENVER (11 - 3) at CINCINNATI (9 - 4 - 1) - 12/22/2014, 8:30 PM
Since 2001, NFL Monday Night Home underdogs: 34-47 ATS
Denver’s Domination
43rd game out of last 45 that Denver has been favored
Since the start of last season,
Denver has won 26 games …
24 of the 26 by a Touchdown or MORE
Denver as a favorite (with Manning): 28-16 ATS
Cincy in Big Games
Bengals in primetime: 2-13 ATS (since 10/1/2007)
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Road team in Cincinnati games have covered only 11 of last 33
Cincy covered 12 of 16 regular season home games (lost last 4)
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Broncos since start of last season: 24 of 26 wins by at least a touchdown
Denver with 148 rushing attempts last four games
Denver in December: 10-2 ATS (in Manning era)
Peyton Manning, road games December or later: 14-19 ATS
Last week: Due to illness, Peyton Manning took four bags of intravenous fluid between Saturday night and Sunday morning, and then hurt his right thigh in the second quarter, requiring more treatment.