2014 NFL Record
33 – 33 @ -3.3 Units
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Week 12 Plays:
#1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5
#2: Tennessee Titans +11
#3: Cincinnati Bengals +1.5
#4: New England Patriots -7
#5: St Louis Rams +6
#6: Arizona Cardinals +7
#7: Miami Dolphins +7
#8: Dallas Cowboys -3.5
Good Luck
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Breakdowns
TBB @ CHI -5.5
The Bucs are 4-1 ATS on the road this year while the Bears are only 1-3 ATS at home, and 5-14 ATS at home over the last few years. The big story here of course is the return of Lovie Smith to Chicago. He was a popular coach with the Bears’ players and most of them didn’t want to see him get replaced two years ago. Lovie is familiar with some of the Bears’ personnel so we’ll see if that is a factor in this one. In addition, McCown is also coming back to face his former team. He was phenomenal for Chicago last year when Cutler was hurt, and played very well last week @ Washington (288 yards, 12.5 PY/A, 86 QBR). Against 29th ranked Bears D he could have a big game again. On the other side, we have a Bucs D that is coming off a 6 sack / 11 QB-hit performance. The Bucs rank 13th against the run and could have success slowing down Forte as I’m sure Lovie will game plan for that. The offensive success of Chicago will rely on Cutler, which is never a good thing. My model has this game at -3.5 CHI, so clearly there’s some line value on the Bucs.
Lean: TBB +5.5
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TEN @ PHI -11
There are two things that absolutely terrifies ButtFumble Sanchez: the first one are those big O-linemen butts of course that are always trying to force a fumble out of him, while the second is ‘pressure’ in the pocket. It’s well known that Sanchez absolutely stinks under pressure, as his performance is well below what an average QB’s is in those situations. Well, the Titans rank 3rd in ASR% (Adjusted Sack Rate), and their aggressive approach was on full display on Monday Night against the Steelers. They sacked Roethlisberger 5 times and registered a total of 8 QB hits, harassing him constantly. I don’t see why they wouldn’t have a similar game plan and approach against Sanchez. In addition, keep in mind that Steelers rank 11th in runO, as they absolutely abused the Titans in the run game on Monday. Well, Eagles are only 20th running the ball, and their O-line ranks 30th with ALY (Adjusted Line Yards) of only 3.3. Philly is a better team, but any team laying double-digits with ButtFumble Sanchez as a starting QB deserves a potential fade. My model has this game at -9.5 PHI and at 11, Titans have solid value on them. And if you do decide to back Philly, just remember this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vuvz15OjCVc
Lean: TEN +11
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CLE @ ATL -3
Big news here is that Josh Gordon is returning to the Browns this week, which should provide a boost to their offense. The bigger news though is that both starting linebackers, Karlos Dansby and Jabaal Sheard, are out. With all these injures, Cleveland allowed Houston to run for 213 yards on them last week as the Texans absolutely dominated the game. The Browns already rank 29th in the league against the run, and now things will be even more difficult. The question is, can this 11th ranked ATL offense take advantage? My line for this game is at -2 ATL, so the number is pretty accurate.
PASS
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GB @ MIN +8
This line opened at -10 GB, has been steadily dropping and is now even at -7.5 on Pinny. What is going on? Well, the #1 issue is that this one was just way too inflated from the beginning. I know the Packers have creamed the Bears 55-14 and then Philly 53-20 in two consecutive weeks, but those games were at home. They also have a home game against the Patriots the following week, so Sunday’s trip to Minnesota could be a classic ‘sandwich’ game for the Packers. Let’s remember, that this is a divisional game as well as a ‘revenge’ game for the Vikings. They lost to Green Bay 42-10 in the first meeting but there are a number of differences for the rematch. First of all, this game won’t be taking place on Thursday Night, so Minnesota will have a full week to prepare. In addition, this time the game is at home and everyone knows that the Packers aren’t as potent away from Lambeau. It’s also important to note that Ponder was the QB and Asiata was the primary runner in that first game. Neither will suit up for this one as Bridgewater and McKinnon/Tate will be starters for the rematch. Vikings rank as the 3rd most efficient run-offense in the league, and that could be a big factor against Green Bay’s 21st ranked runD. Controlling the clock and keeping Rodgers off the field will be crucial. So what does all this mean? Well, back on 10/02 when Vikings were playing @ GB on TNF with Ponder at QB, the spread was +9.5. Now in the rematch, at home, with Bridgewater at QB, Rudolph playing (he missed the first game), and on full rest, the spread opened at +10. Even at +8 there’s a lot of value on the home dog here. Of course let’s remember that Bridgewater has been extremely bad so far, Vikings’ WR’s are useless, and Rodgers is the BEST QB in the league. Do you ever want to fade the BEST QB in the league? Value is on the Vikings but this is one of those pretty difficult plays to make.
Lean: MIN +8
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CIN @ HOU -1.5
Arian Foster is out for this one (very small chance he plays) so it will be up to Alfred Blue to carry the load again. Blue is an inferior runner and coming off 36 carries, who knows how effective he’ll be. In addition, Mallett, in his 2nd start, will now face Cincy’s 8th ranked passD, which just limited Drew Brees and Saints offense to 4.9 YPP and 10 points on their own home field. He did well last week but now that there’s some tape on him, we’ll see if he’ll be as successful. This could be the game where Cincy looks to get some revenge for those playoff losses against Houston in 2011 and 2012 seasons. I think the Bengals are a slightly better team in this particular matchup, and there are a lot more questions with Houston’s playmakers than with Cincy’s.
Lean: CIN +1.5
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DET @ NE -7
So last week the Pats decided to run all over the Colts who struggle at stopping the run and are much better against the pass. This week, DET and their #1 ranked D and #1 ranked runD comes to town. What do you think the game plan will be here? Expect a lot of Vereen, as Detroit allows the most passing yards to RB’s in the league. In addition, I’d be surprised if the Pats run the ball much early, unless they’re protecting a lead late in the 4th quarter. I see a very pass-heavy game plan out of Belichik in this one. On the other side, we might see Detroit struggle offensively. Patriots limited Denver and Indianapolis to 21 and 20 points respectively in consecutive weeks, and the Lions haven’t broken 24-point mark since week 1 of the season. Detroit’s offense is fairly easy to slow down if you have to personnel to do it. They are so reliant on Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson that if you can take those two options away, Detroit really could really struggle. Well with Revis, Browner, and Arrington, the Pats have the personnel and of course in Bill Belichick, they have a coach that specializes in taking away an opponent’s strength. This could be a struggle for Detroit offensively and we all know how hard it is for opponents to play in Foxboro.
Lean: NE -7
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JAX @ IND -13.5
One thing with Luck and Colts, is that you virtually could never fade them when they’re coming off a loss. These guys are excellent at bouncing-back. But of course we want to know, can the Jags keep the game close? They are coming off a BYE week so had extra time to prepare. They also could copy New England’s game plan, and run Robinson into the ground in this one. Jags also could have an easier time defensively, as Bradshaw’s injury will just allow more snaps for ineffective Trent Richardson. Of course all of this could go out of window if the Colts just decide to unleash Luck. IND has had a lot of success against the Jags since Luck came into the league, beating them by 17, 34, 20, and 27 the last 4 times they’ve played them. Thought it’s very hard to lay DD’s in the NFL, it’s also hard to fade Luck and Co. off a loss here.
PASS
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STL @ SD -6
The Rams got creamed by SF by 14 points on 10/13, and then proceeded to beat SEA the following week. They then got destroyed 34-7 @ KC, before coming back and wining @ SF. They followed that up with a 17 point loss @ ARZ, and then came back and had a major upset of Denver at home last week. So if the pattern holds, we should see a blowout loss then @ San Diego in week 12 right? Well, maybe not so fast. This Rams D held San Fran to 10 points, held Arizona to 17 (with Palmer in the lineup), and shut down Manning allowing only 7 points to Denver. San Diego has now scored 0 and 13 points in their last 2 games as they’ve struggled offensively. Rivers is not right as he’s averaged a terrible 6.1 PY/A over the last 4 weeks. San Diego’s offense only recorded 4.4 YPP last week against Oakland at home and now will face a Rams D that has the 2nd most sacks since week 7. Keep in mind that the Chargers love to run the ball, but they’ll be going up against Rams’ 6th ranked runD. Bottom line is that we have one team that is playing well while the other one is really struggling. With huge games coming up @ BAL, vs NE, vs DEN, and @ SF, San Diego better not be overlooking this Rams squad.
Lean: STL +6
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ARZ @ SEA -7
The question is, can you trust Drew Stanton on the road, in one of the toughest placed to play at? Maybe, maybe not. I think the more accurate question is, can we consider Seattle the same ‘dominant’ team that we’ve seen over the last few years? The answer is NO. Look at how they’ve played recently: lost to DAL at home, lost @ STL, barely won @ CAR (13 – 9), barely beat OAK at home (30-24), were tied with Giants at home 17-17 entering the 4th quarter before NY totally fell apart, and of course lost @ KC last week. Now they’ll take on this Arizona team on a 6-game winning streak and 9-1 overall, and Seattle is the one laying 7 points? Last week Jamaal Charles rank for 159 yards on 20 carries, a 8.0 RY/A average. This Sunday, Seattle will face a similar player in Ellington. My model has this game at -2.5 SEA, as I think Arizona is a better team. Lots of value on them in this one.
Lean: ARZ +7
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MIA @ DEN -7
The Rams used a strong pass rush to keep Peyton Manning uncomfortable last week. Well, Miami has the 6th ranked pass-rush in the league to go with the 2nd ranked passD. This is the 4th overall D in the league and one of the elite units. Current reports indicate that Sanders is probable for Denver while Julius Thomas will most likely miss this one. In addition keep in mind that Miami had 10-days to prepare for this one. My model has this game at DEN -3, so there’s a lot of value on the Dolphins. They’ve played very competitive football lately, going 5-2 in the last 7 with two last-second losses against GB and DET. If their D plays up to its potential, this one will be a very close game.
Lean: MIA +7
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WAS @ SF -9
I have this game at -6 San Fran, so there seems to be a lot of value on the underdog Washington. The important question though is how hard will these Washington players play? There seems to be a lot of negativity in that locker room and RGIII is flat out playing as bad as any QB in the league. He ranks 40th in QB-Efficiency and 36th in QBR with a terrible 5.6 adjusted-PY/A and 2 TD’s with 3 INT’s in his starts. Since he came back, Washington lost on the road against a bad Minnesota team and at home against an even worse Tampa Bay squad. Now they’ll take on a San Fran team which is fighting for their playoff lives. The Niners rank 4th overall on D and #1 in passD, and have gotten their stud pass-rusher Aldon Smith back last week. Based on RGIII’s performance so far, he should really struggle against this elite San Francisco defense. To make matters worse, LT Trent Williams is out and he’s probably their best O-lineman. Can’t back Washington right now but backing an over-inflated number on the Niners makes it a prohibitive bet as well.
PASS
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DAL @ NYG +3.5
A rested Dallas team coming off a BYE will take on the free-falling Giants. The biggest mismatch here is Dallas’ 4th ranked runO vs NY’s 26th ranked runD. In addition, remember that NY has lost a number of key defensive players, like Amukamar and Beason, since these teams faced off last time. I remember that first game between the teams and how effortlessly Dallas seemed to move the ball and control possession. They averaged a ridiculous 7.1 YPP and that’s with 35 rushing attempts and only 23 pass attempts. I would expect a similar result in this one as well.
Lean: DAL -3.5