chadman774 said:
I wouldn't call first game a dismantling. Miami had more first downs and more time of possession (but only cpl minutes) and only 25 less total yards. Bills out rushed by 113 to 80 but fins out passed 210 to 202. Miami couldn't protect giving up 4 sacks while getting none on Manuel. bills were in the red zone 7 times but only got 2 TDs and started 3 drives inside the 50, 2 of which were right around the 30. this game came down to home field and turnovers. bills didn't turn the ball over, Miami did twice, and both turned into bills points. now no spiller and no Jackson. brown does look explosive but that's cuz he is fresh. maybe Orton is better than Manuel, but how much?? what happens when a cold weather north team comes to Miami and hits south beach?? possible hangover. just not sure here, and I actually made a flyer bet that bills win this division, so would love buff to win. would have got on bills +7. probably staying away. Just putting some more info out there to muddy the waters.
The total yardage is not a good thing to look at when evaluating each team's performance in a particular game. Yes, you are right that Buffalo's average starting field-position was much better than Miami's, but that is part of the reason why they didn't accumulate as many "total" yards. Like I said, "total" yards isn't a good stat to use by itself...it's better to use rate-statistics.
So in the first meeting, Miami averaged 3.9 YPP (Yards Per Play) while Buffalo was at 5.3. The NFL average is about 5.4 YPP. While Buffalo performed at about league-average in that game, Miami was substantially worse, about 28% worse than a league average team. In addition, Tannehill had a 4.9 PY/A average in the game. League average is about 7.3 Passing Yards per Attempt, so you can see how poorly he's played in the first meeting. Will he be this bad again today? Probably not, though he will be without his best O-lineman and his top RB is hobbled.
The "First downs" discrepancy that you've mentioned doesn't really matter either, as once again, Miami was the one that was behind for most of the game, so had to play at a quicker pace and try to pick up more yardage throughout. Plus Buffalo simply did NOT have as many opportunities to pick 1st downs on their drives, because they were starting much closer to the goal-line than Miami.
You mentioned above that "this game came down to home field and turnovers. bills didn't turn the ball over, Miami did twice, and both turned into bills points". Not sure what you mean by "home field" and how exactly it influenced the outcome of the game, but I don't agree with you that turnovers were a factor in the final outcome. Buffalo had 0 TO's while Miami did have 2. The first one though was a muffed punt catch, which turned into the fumble recovered by Buffalo. That came at the 5:45 mark in the 4th quarter, with the Bills leading 26-10. Buffalo proceeded to run the ball 3 times up the gut, picked up a measly 3 yards, and then proceeded to miss a cupcake 31-yard FG attempt. The second TO was an INT, thrown by Tannehill with 0:10 seconds left in the game. Buffalo then proceeded to kneel and run out the remaining seconds off the clock to end the game. Neither TO led to any Bills points. At the same time, both TO's came very late in the game when the outcome was already pretty much decided. Let's say Miami does NOT **** that punt, the Dolphins would have had the ball on their own 17-yard line with 5:45 left to play and down 26 to 10. Remember, this team was averaging 3.9 YPP and 4.9 PY/A while allowing 4 sacks, so it's really hard to think that they would have been able to drive the length of the field twice in the final 5:45 of the game, score two TD's and convert two 2PT conversions, just to send the game into OT. The TO's were totally irrelevant to the outcome of this game.
What was relevant though, was the performance of both teams' special-teams. In this game, Miami's ST's muffed a punt, had one of their own punts blocked by the Bills, and of course allowed a 102-yard kickoff return for a TD to Spiller. All of those were absolutely huge special-team plays that absolutely had a huge impact on the outcome of the game. But like I've mentioned in my analysis, Buffalo ranks 4th while Miami is 27th on special-teams. This could be a big factor once again tonight and Buffalo has a distinct advantage there.
As far as Spiller and Jackson being absent for the rematch, I don't think that's a factor at all. I believe Bryce Brown is just as explosive as Spiller and just as good receiver out of the backfield as Jackson. He looked explosive last week not because he is 'fresh' but because he is an exceptional athlete. Miami does not have a runner like that on their squad, and the only player to come close to Brown's athletic ability is probably Mike Wallace. Of course Tannehill needs time to get him the ball, something that he won't have a lot of today.
Overall, I just believe that a lot of key advantages favor Buffalo in today's rematch. Their ST's and their D will be a big advantage against a Miami offense that could have serious issues with their O-line today. Thank you for your thoughts, as I love to discuss games and analysis with people. Good luck today buddy.