http://bit.ly/1dO56ZY
We had a choppy weekend, getting blasted on Saturday and then winning almost all of it back Sunday. We had won 12 straight days prior to Saturday, so 13-1 run by day, gunning for 14-1!
It's MNF, and that means I am pouring over props to bet tonight.......MNF package is UP, props to go up later this afternoon.
If there is ONE thing that I disagree the most with almost everyone is that the sharp book marketplace, especially the reduced vig books, matters big-time in major sports at post. You can talk to me about power ratings, situational spots,14-1 trends, 100-11 trends etc., but if the entire world is dealing a game -3, and Pinnacle sports has a $20,000 limit, and they are dealing -3-100, +3-110, then the -3 bet IS ALMOST ALWAYS the wrong side to bet at -110.
Look no further for me than the Saints @ Dal. I had the Saints rated way higher than Dallas. The line crashed down from -3 to -2.5 in some sharp spots.........AND I PASSED THE GAME. Even thought I liked the Saints at -3 earlier in the week, I refused to bet them -2.5! Why? Because Fezzik the handicapper made the game Saints -4, but Fezzik the market reader said "Dallas wins". Given this, it was a good game to pass. There will be plenty of games I will like AND the market will like also........THOSE are the games to bet (ok arguably you have to often bet them quickly before the lines really move).
I hear SO much about how you can win being a contrarian......while I don't disagree, I want to be a contrarian against the PUBLIC, NOT against the sharp books. Further, a great value of being a contrarian is betting AT POST. Being a contrarian mid-week obviously is not the way to go.........a great example would be maybe the Ole Miss/Memphis game. Fine to play Memphis against the public steam +21.........not nearly as good +19 mid-week