I think the average Joe public is on Patriots but sharp public is on KC like you suggest. (sportsbook spy % have 63% for Patriots spread currently as I type).
A lot of doubts for Patriots coming out with a -3 on the road so more have given KC credit (no matter how many injuries or probables they are dealing with tonight).
I agree with your pick and feel Patriots will do a better job of controlling the game by running unlike in years past.