#1: Washington Redskins -3 @ -120
Here are the results of the first three TNF games this season:
GB @ SEA: 36 to 16 home team
PIT @ BAL: 26 to 6 home team
TB @ ATL: 56 to 14 home team
I’m not sure if this is a significant trend or not due to the ‘sample size’ but it does seem that on a short week, the home team has a pretty strong advantage. They don’t have to travel. They have a little extra time to rest and prepare. And most importantly they have the ‘home field’ edge in their favor in front of a nationally televised football game.
Today’s game has a spread of -3, indicating that the bookmakers believe these teams are very even overall. This might be too early to determine that still (sample size), but I think match-up wise Washington is a good shape for this one.
First, you have to consider the fact that they are ranked #1 in DefEff (Defensive Efficiency) when it comes to run-defense. Some might argue that part of it was due to facing teams like HOU and JAX so far this year, some of the worst teams in the league last season (and this season as well it seems). But when you hold LeSean McCoy, the undisputed best runner in the NFL last season (by almost 300 yards), to 22 yards on 19 carries (1.2 average), you know that this defense is doing something right. This is very important for this matchup because Giants are a run-oriented team. Despite being only 1-2 (winning teams tend to close games by running the ball), this team is 7th in the league in rushing attempts, a tad over 30 per game. Establishing the run and minimizing the number of pass-attempts from turnover prone QB like Eli Manning is the right strategy of course but it might be tough to implement today. Rashad Jennings is coming off a career-high 34 rushing attempts last week and on a very short week, who knows how his 29-year old (grandpa by NFL standards) body will respond today. And of course, this #1 ranked Washington run-D should be able to contain NY’s run game the way they contained McCoy last week. This will force the G-men to rely more on Eli Manning tonight, which is never a good thing.
Second key factor is that Giants’ defense ranks only 19th so far this season and 24th overall against the pass. Last week they allowed 411 yards and a ridiculous 6.6 YPP to a Houston Texans team led by Ryan Fitzpatrick and a rookie 6th rounder Alfred Blue at RB. Cousins himself threw for over 400 yards last week and as a team, Washington averaged 6.7 YPP last week. Their opponent in week 3 was Philly, a team that ranks 21st against the pass so far this year. Once again, the pressure could be on Eli Manning to keep up with Washington if they’re once again as efficient offensively as they were last week.
Bottom line is that we have a divisional game here, on a short week, and being played at Washington. The home team has an advantage in this spot from my perspective, but more importantly, match-up wise this is a good opponent for Washington. I like their chances here.
Good Luck