Good morning Pregame! Another good weekend of NFL action, as I went 6-2, with another play tonight. What did we learn? It seems that the favorites and underdogs have really balanced each other out, for the second weekend in a row. The 'dogs were a cover machine in Week 1, but it's been rather even in Weeks 2-3. This week's winners for me were Baltimore, Dallas, Washington, Cincinnati, San Diego and Arizona. That's 3 'dogs and 3 favorites that won for me, so no discernible pattern there. My losers were Tampa Bay and Houston. One favorite and one 'dog. Again no discernible pattern. So what do we need to know going forward?
1. Where do we find the value? Which teams are overvalued by bettors, which are undervalued? The cat may be out of the bag regarding Cincinnati and San Diego. I have to admit I was worried about taking the Bengals as a 7 point favorite yesterday, but they covered easily. The Bengals have a bye this week. One team that might continue getting overlooked is Arizona. Playing in the same division as Seattle and San Francisco certainly makes them a "fly under the radar" team. I was astounded they were an underdog to the Niners yesterday and happily played them as such. I also like the suggestion made by another poster that the Raiders will offer value. But knowing where to find value, and knowing a good line will be very important. These lines are really tightening up!
2. I like to look for mysterious lines. Those that make no sense on the surface. For me, this week's mysterious line is Philadelphia at San Francisco. The Eagles are 3-0 (2-1 ATS), and the Niners are 1-2 (1-2 ATS). So why does SF open as a 4.5 point FAVORITE? I don't get it. Seems to me, the books are begging you to take the Eagles. And last time I checked, the books didn't beg you to take the team they thought would cover. My initial lean here is to the Niners.
3. It appears that traveling west to east isn't working this year. So far, Arizona went to the Giants and won. Yesterday, SD went to Buffalo and won. OAK went to NE and easily covered.
What do you see? Feel free to comment on what you've learned and observed. And BOL always!