If you missed my NFL Week 1 Divisional Recap video from last week, you can find it on Youtube. Unfortunately, I could not record the Video Recap this week due to catching a Sore Throat. That is why I am posting my writeup on my True Point system. This system is by far not down to a science, nor may it ever will be as there are so many variances and nuances within football, however this is a start on how to gauge the true identity of each NFL team other than looking at the public stats that everyone has access to.
What is my True Point scale?
To give you a brief high level overview, it’s negating points off turnovers and points off turnovers that leaves the opposing team in FG range. It also gives points to team that make Turnovers in their opponents territory. Let’s say KC has the ball on the DEN 20 and fumbles and DEN recovers. Instead of not giving KC any points, if that Turnover does’t happen, the highest probability is that KC puts at least 3 points on the board, yes they can miss a FG or Den could block it, but the highest probability of either of those two happening are less than the probability of a KC FG made. On the other hand, let’s say KC has the ball on their own 20 and they fumble and DEN recovers. In that case, I negate any points DEN scores in that situation as they have a high probability of at least walking away with 3 points given the great field position. Like I said, this system is nowhere near being totally complete, but its a better indicator than using ESPN stats.
What is my Ranking scale?
I rank each team’s QB, RB, WRs, OLine, & DEF 1-5, 5 being the best. I then get the average of those rankings and that is each team’s ranking on a 5 point scale. Thesr rankings are based solely on this one specific game and does not take into account any prior games, therefore a terrible team can still have a good ranking.
NFL Week 2 True Points
TEAM TRUE POINTS RANK
Arizona Cardinals 20 2.2
NY Giants 20 2.4
ATS Winner: Arizona Cardinals +1.5
RIGHT ATS Side: Arizona Cardinals +1.5
Atlanta Falcons 13 2
Cincinnati Bengals 17 3.4
ATS Winner: Cincinnati Bengals -5.5
RIGHT ATS Side: Atlanta Falcons +5.5
Chicago Bears 21 2.6
San Francisco 49ers 19 2
ATS Winner: Chicago Bears +7
RIGHT ATS Side: Chicago Bears +7
Dallas Cowboys 26 3
Tennessee Titans 13 1.4
ATS Winner: Dallas Cowboys +3
RIGHT ATS Side: Dallas Cowboys +3
Detroit Lions 10 2.4
Carolina Panthers 20 2.2
ATS Winner: Carolina Panthers -1.5
RIGHT ATS Side: Carolina Panthers -1.5
Houston Texans 20 2
Oakland Raiders 24 1.2
ATS Winner: Houston Texans -3
RIGHT ATS Side: Oakland Raiders +3
Jacksonville Jaguars 10 1.4
Washington Redskins 38 2.6
ATS Winner: Washington Redskins -4.5
RIGHT ATS Side:Washington Redskins -4.5
Kansas City Chiefs 17 3
Denver Broncos 24 3.4
ATS Winner: Kansas City Chiefs +13
RIGHT ATS Side: Kansas City Chiefs +13
Miami Dolphins 13 1.6
Buffalo Bills 23 2.8
ATS Winner: Biffalo Bills -1.5
RIGHT ATS Side: Buffalo Bills -1.5
New Orleans Saints 24 2
Cleveland Browns 20 2.4
ATS Winner: Cleveland Browns +5
RIGHT ATS Side: Cleveland Browns +5
New England Patriots 19 2.6
Minnesota Vikings 7 1.4
ATS Winner: New England Patriots -3
RIGHT ATS Side: New England Patriots -3
NY Jets 24 2.2
Green Bay Packers 30 2.4
ATS Winner: PUSH
RIGHT ATS Side: NY Jets +7
Philadelphia Eagles 23 2.8
Indianapolis Colts 30 2.8
ATS Winner: Philadelphia Eagles +3
RIGHT ATS Side: Indianapolis Colts -3
Pittsburgh Steelers 12 2.4
Baltimore Ravens 20 2.2
ATS Winner: Baltimore Ravens -2.5
RIGHT ATS Side: Baltimore Ravens -2.5
Seattle Seahawks 21 1.8
San Diego Chargers 27 3
ATS Winner: San Diego Chargers +5
RIGHT ATS Side: San Diego Chargers +5
St. Louis Rams 16 1.8
Tampa Bay Bucs 20 1.2
ATS Winner: St. Louis Rams +4
RIGHT ATS Side: PUSH
*ATS Winner/RIGHT ATS is based off closing odds
The following information is based on points scored w/out Turnovers & points that should have been scored if they didn’t have Turnovers:
Luckiest Offense: Houston Texans
Pts/Game: 23.5
True Pts/Game: 16.5
Luckiest Defense: Houston Texans
Opp Pts/Game: 10
True Opp Pts/Game: 18.5
Unluckiest Offense: Atlanta Falcons
Pts/Game: 23.5
True Pts/Game: 26.5
Unluckiest Defense: New England Patriots
Opp Pts/Game: 20
True Opp Pts/Game: 11.5
True Highest Scoring Offense: New Orleans Saints 30 pts/game
True Opp Lowest Scoring Defense: Oakland Raiders & Philadelphia Eagles 11.5 opp pts/game