Week 2 of the NFL season is in the books and it's time to reflect on what has been learned so far. This past weekend was one of my all time best - ever. Went 8-2 on my NFL picks and 6-2 on my college picks for 14-4 overall. I'll probably never see another weekend like that again! So what went right? What went wrong? What can we expect going forward?
1. The value still seems to reside with the underdogs. The Dogs were 8-7 this weekend in the NFL, but look at who didn't cover as favorites...Seattle, San Francisco (at home), Denver (at home), Indianapolis (at home). The only one of these teams that I bet on over the weekend was Indy. As for the colleges, I don't know how those splits ended up, but of the 8 games I bet, I took 7 underdogs and 1 favorite (Nebraska). So from where I sit, the value was clearly was with the Dogs. Note: One of my Dogs was Rutgers, which was given to me by CarsonK, so he gets the credit for that win! Good job Carson and thank you much Bud!!
2. The New Orleans Saints D has snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in both games! At some point, the books might adjust for this. Doesn't look like it this week. With the Saints home opener this week, I expect them to win, but beware the back door cover for Minnesota here. I know that everyone will be talking about AP this week, but remember they were all talking about Ray Rice last week and the Ravens got the easy win and cover against the Steelers. Difference is the Ravens were at home and Vikings will be on the road.
3. In college football, the SEC is getting lots of love from the books, but I'm not buying it. The Big 12 isn't, and perhaps I should be buying it! Most surprising team in the Big 12 so far is West Virginia. But how about Iowa State getting the W at Iowa? I was on the Clones to cover a 10 point spread last weekend, and that was one of my covers. That Auburn/Kansas State line (Aub -9) sure is looking like easy pickings!
4. Is anyone for real in the Big 10?
5. Why is it so hard to bet on the underdog? Obviously, because of the perception that the Dog is the inferior team! But why else? I think part of it - esp in professional sports (NFL, MLB, NBA) is that the public bettor perceives big talent gaps between teams. In fact, big talent gaps do not exist in professional sports. The talent gap between the best team and the worst team in the NFL, for example, is microscopic. But the casual bettor doesn't get it. He gets his info from the talking heads at ESPN and local sports talk radio. The Wise Guys get their info from reams of computer driven info that gives them the numbers. Keep that in mind as you ponder whether or not to bet New England as a 16 point favorite this week against Oakland. Look for reasons to take the dog!!
6. There are no "locks" "guarantees" or "sure things". None. But I'll give you one anyway...the game I'm most looking forward to this weekend is my son's high school team as they look to protect their #1 ranking in Kansas Class 6A football!
7. Best of luck to everyone this weekend.