I’m going to offer a weekly opinion on Saints games. I’m from New Orleans and this is the NFL team I know best. I’m not a professional handicapper, just an avid football fan. Feel free to comment. Other opinions are always welcomed.
Week 1: New Orleans at Atlanta. A few weeks ago this line was ATL – 1.5. Now it’s NO -3.0 at most places. The O/U between 51.5 – 52.0 (depending on where you bet).
Team Selection: New Orleans -3.0 (Warning: See side note at the end.)
I’m not being a homer here, but I really don’t see how the Saints can lose this game. Outside of Matt Ryan & Julio Jones, the ATL roster is average to below average. Roddy White & Steven Jackson are not what they used to be, Tony Gonzalez retired, and the OL was a disappointment last year. LT Sam Baker was injured in preseason and is out for the year. They did draft Jake Matthews which helps, but when your best offensive lineman is a rookie that says something. Defensively, the ATL pass rush was non-existent last year and they had the worst 3rd down percentage in the league. They added Tyson Jackson & Paul Soliai on the D line, but neither player is known for their pass rush. Kroy Biermann (back from an injury) and Osi Umenyiora (7.5 sacks in ’13) are the outside LBs, but neither one is a difference maker. Rookie corner Truffant has played well in coverage in camp, but expect him to get burned on more than one occasion by Brees.
The New Orleans offense is well known. The offensive line will be good. The LT position (which was a weakness last year) should be a strength as Armstead got better each game last season, was very solid in the playoffs & had a great camp. Graham, Colston, Stills & Cooks are going to be hard to match up against. I also see Sean Payton placing a greater emphasis on a power running game. Ingram is highly motivated (last year of contract). Rob Ryan’s defensive line is solid. Hicks should have a breakout year and Jordan should make the Pro Bowl. The LBs aren’t great, but Galette is excellent rushing the passer and Lofton is still solid against the run. The secondary should be a strength with Vaccaro & the ball-hawking Byrd at safety and Lewis at one corner. The other corner is still up for grabs and is really the only major concern on defense. Former first round pick Patrick Robinson and 2nd year corner Corey White looked good in camp, but Robinson was burned numerous times in their last preseason game which is disconcerting.
Total Selection: I LOVE the Under. (Note: Since these teams are known to be much better offensively than defensively, I’m going to wait before betting the total as I hope it goes higher as we get closer to Sunday.)
For some reason, the scoring in recent history between these divisional rivals has been much lower in ATL than in NO. Of the last 8 games played in ATL, these teams have combined to score over 50 points only once (54 points in Nov 2008). In fact, three of the last four games in ATL have scored under 37 points. In contrast, 5 of the last 8 in NO have totaled over 50 with two games in the 60s. Since both teams play in dome stadiums, this difference is hard to explain. But it’s also something the average bettor may not know about.
I see the Saints running the ball more which will chew up the clock. I also see the Falcons trying to keep the ball away from the Saints offense by running the ball on 1st and 2nd down and chewing up clock. That has been their strategy in the past. I don’t see the Falcons offense moving the ball consistently against the Saints improved defense though, which will hamper their scoring and thus keeping the total well under 51.
On a side note, a HATE betting a favorite and the under in the same game. I have not fared well betting these situations in the past . If the falcons score more than 24 points (garbage TDs in the 4th quarter happen all the time) or the Saints explode offensively (which is always a possibility), the under is sunk. If this game does turn out to be low scoring because there is a lot of running and ball possession in this game, the 3 points will be a big factor and could possibly cause NO to lose ATS. Personally, I’m only going to bet the under.
Good luck to all! Let’s win some money!!