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*WINNER* DubV's Official Super Bowl Pick w/ write-up.

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Thread Starter *WINNER* DubV's Official Super Bowl Pick w/ write-up.
DubV
Joined: 08/29/2011
Posts: 9085
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Top 75 Contributor

I want to let you guys know that I'm on SEATTLE +3 (-115) (Bovada). Denver is a great team and I admire, respect, and root for Peyton Manning but the Broncos have become slightly overrated based on their recent performance. So far in the playoffs they have beaten San Diego, who ranked close to dead last in yards per play allowed and New England, who was without their top cornerback for most of the game. Peyton Manning would not have been able to put up the numbers he did against New England if Aqib Talib had not been forced to leave the game early with an injury. Seattle has the number one defense in the league. They have a strong front seven as well as a strong secondary, which means it will be hard for Manning to have his way with them. Peyton is machine like at quarterback and tends to break down when he is forced to improvise. I think Seattle's defense will force Manning to have to improvise and we will see the version of Peyton Manning we all remember but haven't seen for a while, the one that shrugs his shoulders in disbelief after making a bad throw. Denver does not have an elite defense and I think Seattle will be able to move the ball on them. Denver hasn't exactly been able to shut down opposing qbs who are capable of taking off and running like Russel Wilson is. Denver gave up an average of 7.2 yards per carry to Terrell Pryor in their two games with Oakland and 5 yards per carry to Michael Vick in their game against Philadelphia. I also think Seattle has the coaching advantage over Denver. Another factor that I believe favors Seattle is the chance of less than ideal weather. Peyton Manning has had serious neck surgery and allegedly has a tougher time gripping the ball in colder weather. Throw in wind, rain, or snow on top of the cold and Manning will have an even harder time with his passes. If I had to set the line for this game I would make it a pick em so I think we are getting good value with +3. If you don't have access to Bovada you might want to wait to see if you can get +3 as it seems like the majority of the tickets are on Denver so far. Best of luck everyone and enjoy the game.

OFFICIAL RECOMMENDATION: SEATTLE +3, -115

Hawkeye11en1
Joined: 01/12/2013
Posts: 731
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Manning faced a league low 14% of pressures on pass plays.  Seattle was tops (or 2nd, can't remember) in the league with 32% of opponents drop backs being pressured.  Please note that Seattle faced a much tougher schedule as well.  

Hawkeye11en1's last 12 months record in all sports
SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CBB29118.18-785.00
CFB200100.00200.00
NBA612133.33-715.00
NFL34042.86-145.00
DubV
Joined: 08/29/2011
Posts: 9085
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Top 75 Contributor

Good stats Hawkeye, thanks.

SharkMan23
Joined: 06/11/2012
Posts: 4931
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Top 150 Contributor

IM ON IT DUB!!!!!! LETS CASH IT BRO!!!!!!

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
NFL144177.78952.00
Hawkeye11en1
Joined: 01/12/2013
Posts: 731
All American
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So good, I give em twice!  (Can't delete duplicate for some reason)

Hawkeye11en1's last 12 months record in all sports
SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CBB29118.18-785.00
CFB200100.00200.00
NBA612133.33-715.00
NFL34042.86-145.00
DubV
Joined: 08/29/2011
Posts: 9085
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Top 75 Contributor

It deserves a double post!

Luckykanuck
Joined: 12/03/2012
Posts: 1021
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Nice post no matter which side you like.

purks
Joined: 02/14/2012
Posts: 6599
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My book doesn't officially have +3, but I'm waiting on that line to keep going up. I already put 1 unit on denver -1 early, but if I have to i'll buy the +3.5 late to middle/hedge

Good stuff as always, sir dubs

Martin Pedersen
Joined: 12/27/2012
Posts: 3483
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How about Seattle's defense might be overrated. Everyone talks about Denver being overrated but Seattle has only faced 1 team that has a top 10 offense & they beat the Saints twice in Seattle. Everyone knows that the Seahawks are much better at home & I will argue that Seattle's defense hasn't been tested by an offense as good as Denver's. The argument can go both ways but I love that everyone glosses over the fact that Seattle hasn't been tested by a good offense outside of 2 home meetings with the Saints.

Broncos defense has really stepped up against 2 good offenses the last couple weeks & I feel that this game will come down to Russell Wilson & I look for him to come up small on the big stage. Denver has allowed 17 or fewer points in 4 straight games.

As for coaching, John Fox is one of only 6 coaches to reach the Super Bowl with 2 different teams & Carroll is coaching his 3rd NFL team with his first trip to the Super Bowl. You can say the Jets & Pats were a long time ago for Carroll but I feel that this team has drastically overachieved.

Also don't forget that Peyton won his only Super Bowl in a monsoon. No it wasn't cold but it seems like most of the same people going against Denver in the Super Bowl have said they were going to lose the last 2 weeks but have made excuses as to why they haven't.

BOL to ya Dub.

http://www.sportsbetcappers.com/#!martinp/cf77

Follow me on Twitter @MartinP_MMA

All MMA write-ups are still up at Pregame with nearly all under Other Sports, 1 in Everything Else, & I believe 1 was in NFL in case anyone wants to check. You can also go back through the rest of the months.

Record by month since December 2013.  

August 2014 -.69 Unit

July 2014 +5.35 Units

June 2014  +5.97 Units

May 2014  +8.12 Units

April 2014  -2.53 Units

March 2014  -10.53 Units

February 2014  +12 Units

January 2014  -4.48 Units

December 2013  +14.06 Units (Went 10-3-1 on dogs including my bet of the year on Chris Weidman over Silva). Won both times with Weidman over Silva.

All plays were documented in write-ups posted on SportsBetCappers, Pregame,or The Sonny Seattle Show that was shown on Pregame.com. 

Pregame, SportsBetCappers, SonnySeattle.com, KamikazeOverdrive are the only sports sites that I've posted on or am a member of. Don't believe the fakes. 

DubV
Joined: 08/29/2011
Posts: 9085
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Top 75 Contributor

Sharky- Heck yea bud!

Lucky- Thanks :)

Purks: Pizza

Martin- Great response, you make some very good points. I was actually on Denver last week vs the Pats. http://pregame.com/pregame-forums/f/9/t/823935.aspx

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