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fezzik contradiction

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fezzik contradiction
RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15271
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wiz12268,

No one is saying that pick'em and +6 is available at the same time . . . but OVER THE COURSE OF TIME, the changes in the spread will often offer value on both sides. Especially with all the early lines now available in Vegas and online.

If a Pro bettor says on May 1: Cantor has released their NFL season lines, I bet Carolina +3.

And then, the day of the game months later, says: Market is at New England +3, and I just bet it.

If anyone thinks there is something wrong with sharing TWO bets (both with expected profit) with their followers, then you need to slow down and think these concepts through.

RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas
Sunday: LAST CHANCE on discounted on FB subscriptions. Deals worth a look. 

13aces
Joined: 02/28/2013
Posts: 1868
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Good stuff.  Like the betting strategy, I use a different but yet similar betting system.  The discipline, IMO, separates the money makers and losers.  Wiz I like your honesty and opinions.  I'm not a GOY bettor.

To buy picks says you need assistance.  To deny it, means you are a coward!

trantridzung
Joined: 11/14/2011
Posts: 17
Waterboy
Not Ranked

a question here.

Do the leans count as a paid picks?

Fez said he went 3-1 for mnf but here is what I got from his pick purchase.

NEP +3 L -1.1

BRADY OVER 23.5 Completions -120, 2 stars. +2

3rd QTR higher scoring  -120 vs. 1st QTR scoring, 1 star. (couldn't find that prop on any of the site i use)

GAME TOTAL:   LEAN UNDER.   If we see 47.5, I will add UNDER for 1 star.

For me it was 1-1 with +0.9

for some it would be 2-1 with +1.9

Never saw a total of 47.5, so how could this be counted as official play!

Thanks for the great prop though fez

Bruno Bets
Joined: 11/08/2011
Posts: 36221
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13aces
 I'm not a GOY bettor

and nobody should be. I have been over this for what seems like 100 fk'n times. YOU CANNOT call a game of the year until the season is over. What dictates a GOY today can be overshadowed by circumstances (bad line, injury, etc) when the "real" GOY actually hits the card tomorrow. C'mon, men....use your collective heads and forget about the marketing.....SMH

Unless you have a crystal ball or something, you cannot truthfully tell me that any game merits the GOY tag until AFTER THE SEASON IS OVER! I am sure that many "Bowl" games will be GOYs, but how can THAT be? Hasn't everyone already used them up?

The sooner that everyone gets this "Odds-makers are idiots" (oh yeah man, they really screwed up on this one) notion out of their heads, the better off they will be! Wake the FK up, friends.....

Perhaps we need to see the OMGOY (One of My Games Of the Year). Get the humor, folks! Yeah, go ahead and use it if you like it. Stick out tongue I'll be here all week......

13aces
Joined: 02/28/2013
Posts: 1868
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Bruno, that's not where this thread was going.  I shouldn't have made that comment.

To buy picks says you need assistance.  To deny it, means you are a coward!

Bruno Bets
Joined: 11/08/2011
Posts: 36221
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I know that, buddy. Same sh**, different pile today is all......

Bruno Bets
Joined: 11/08/2011
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13aces
Bruno, that's not where this thread was going.  I shouldn't have made that comment.

You don't like my OMGOY....I thought it was pretty slick myself.....LOL

wiz12268
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 175
College Recruit
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RJ_Bell

wiz12268,

No one is saying that pick'em and +6 is available at the same time . . . but OVER THE COURSE OF TIME, the changes in the spread will often offer value on both sides. Especially with all the early lines now available in Vegas and online.

If a Pro bettor says on May 1: Cantor has released their NFL season lines, I bet Carolina +3.

And then, the day of the game months later, says: Market is at New England +3, and I just bet it.

If anyone thinks there is something wrong with sharing TWO bets (both with expected profit) with their followers, then you need to slow down and think these concepts through.

You cant bet it BLINDLY either. What was the New Orleans/Atl line? I would say Atl would have been -6 or so, now theyre +7.5 at least once teaser protect come off. So if you have +6 with New Orleans do you take +7.5 now with Atl because it offers so much 'value'. 

That is like half time lines where you have a dog +7  full game who is ahead SU by 13 at half time and the favorite is now only -4 HT line or whatever the chart says.

The difference is so great it has now become two separate bets one will water down the other. 

There is a time to find value and a time to sit on a strong side. Thats where numbers hunters lose what little edge they might actually have. They give away so many positive bets looking to cash both ways or 'protect' themselves they end up burying themselves in vig.

Guys actually looking to make money and not just try and look smart know the difference. Sometimes it IS close, but those are the times the guys dont take the advantage because it isnt enough for them, which is the greatest irony.

Good debate mostly theoretical because the lines just dont exist now to make it a truly valid argument, thats where the internet has hurt people the most. it homogenized the lines and allowed books to have instant access to each other and know within a split second where everyone was at. People think it allows them, the bettor, to have more options, but it is the exact opposite, the options now are so similar they are really a coin flip on what you should do.

13aces
Joined: 02/28/2013
Posts: 1868
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Yes!

To buy picks says you need assistance.  To deny it, means you are a coward!

Bruno Bets
Joined: 11/08/2011
Posts: 36221
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Bruno's OMGOY.....Coming Soon, as the fans all wait with bated breath......

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