Forums

Forums
Where sports bettors talk!

fezzik contradiction

NFL
fezzik contradiction
Bruno Bets
Joined: 11/08/2011
Posts: 36221
Rank NA
Top 10 Contributor

Toofdoc
Not for someone buying picks

Or for those with 40+ birds. I guess there's an upside? I'd only have about 10 left? 

Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 11313
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

At -110 I agree with what you say Toof. But Fez just a made a general statement that at 53% edge or MORE is what a Pro Bettor will bet. At -105 or +100 it's a huge advantage..

286-152 ON TWITTER PLAYS

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards

Madman Producer
Joined: 09/03/2011
Posts: 13358
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

Welp in this case- everyone should be playing the lotto non stop because we have a 50% chance of winning right? Either you win or you dont? 50/50 Right? LOL

Sarcasm people- lighten up. I love Greg Shaker!

 2014 NFL & NCAAF Records

NCAAF Record Full games 1-1(0.00).    

NCAAF 2nd half plays only these plays *1 unit only updated Weekly : 10-4

NFL Record 5-0  Raiders +5.5, Chargers +3, Ravens -2.5, Bills +1, redskins+7.5

NFL / NCAAF Teasers 1-0 (+300) 

Oklahoma's Trevor Knight for 2014 Heisman Trophy. ( 25/1 ) 200 /5000

 

 

 

wiz12268
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 190
College Recruit
Not Ranked

A guy flipping a coin and getting the best number on his side will hit around 53%. No great achievement.

Guys like to cite the best line all the time but in reality its edge isnt that great. 2.5/3% turning pushes and losses to win, and another 1% or so making losses pushes. It basically makes you NOT lose just under 5% of the time.

BUT 5% for a coin flipper makes them a 55% guy if they can spin it the right way.

That is why sports betting has become a lot less about picking teams and a lot more about picking numbers. Because they can spin it a lot more and so many people have bought into the hype of getting the best numbers that they have a lot of people backing them up.

The 'best' way to do it is get your teams then get the best numbers, so that makes a legit 52-53% guy a 55-58% guy. But in the end none gets the best line every single time, so the percentages are going to be skewed right off the top. But when guys start selling point spreads instead of side you dont need to be a rocket scientist to figure out what theyre doing.

RJ_Bell
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 15477
Rank NA
Top 25 Contributor

Funny thing about the Internet: People who don't understand are usually the most adamant. Which makes it hard to be patient explaining the basics to them.

For example,

Assuming the home team is -3 . . . there would likely be value on the home team at pick'em and value on the road team at +6. Betting both would be an effort to "middle" a game.

This is very different than the old "double-side" scam . . . in which old touts would release one team to half of the people, and the other team to the other half. The key here is neither half would know others were getting something else.

Clearly that is impossible when both picks are 100% public!

LOL.

Fezzik is attempting to educate his followers to the value of numbers. It is an important lesson.

RJ Bell - Pregame.com Founder & CEO | Twitter: @RJinVegas
Sunday: Colin Cowherd's NFL Picks + My Wiseguy Analysis

13aces
Joined: 02/28/2013
Posts: 2272
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

Greg, are you a pro and if so do you sell pics?

To buy picks says you need assistance.  To deny it, means you are a coward!

Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 11313
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

Exactly RJ. Good discussion..

286-152 ON TWITTER PLAYS

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards

13aces
Joined: 02/28/2013
Posts: 2272
All Pro
Top 500 Contributor

So if you are a pro selling picks, and you say a certain win % is good, then you come out with a GOY play, what win % should that be to be good?  Men I've been gambling for 30 years, seen a lot (far from all) and still learning to get better.

To buy picks says you need assistance.  To deny it, means you are a coward!

Greg Shaker
Joined: 05/30/2007
Posts: 11313
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

Aces I do both. I am a Pro Bettor and I do sell picks. Those are not the same thing. I bet 1% to 3%. Some would argue that 3% is too high, some would argue it is too low for a Top Play. Most agree that 2% is a reasonable risk amount for any bet and those than think that should stay with their gameplan if it has been working. I personally don't do GOY's but it would be my recommendation not to play more that 3% on any game. Again some would disagree with that. There is more than one way to skin a cat..

286-152 ON TWITTER PLAYS

Follow Greg Shaker on Twitter: GregShaker

I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards

wiz12268
Joined: 06/21/2006
Posts: 190
College Recruit
Not Ranked

RJ_Bell

Funny thing about the Internet: People who don't understand are usually the most adamant. Which makes it hard to be patient explaining the basics to them.

For example,

Assuming the home team is -3 . . . there would likely be value on the home team at pick'em and value on the road team at +6. Betting both would be an effort to "middle" a game.

This is very different than the old "double-side" scam . . . in which old touts would release one team to half of the people, and the other team to the other half. The key here is neither half would know others were getting something else.

Clearly that is impossible when both picks are 100% public!

LOL.

Fezzik is attempting to educate his followers to the value of numbers. It is an important lesson.

There is only 'value' if both are ever available, which in this day and age they never are.

You only find 'value' in spreads by COMPARISON. There is no stand alone value, especially if you dont have an opinion on either team.

Obviously if you can get any PK em game at PK and +3 it gives you an advantage, in a vacuum anyway. How many times you ever going to see it?  -3 and +6 not nearly as much but it still offered something. Mostly insurance on your dog. Those actually do come up sometimes, but the -3 is never ever -110 and more than likely -125 or more.

But it is still selling the same idea, it isnt as blatant as giving out both sides of the game, but in essence you are. Youre playing a theoretical advantage to get BOTH sides of the customer base winning and thus keeping them both happy and both on the line. If one side loses then you use the 'well we got the best number' excuse and go from there.

There has ever only been one tout who has been completely and totally transparent, at lest as far as most of his claims, and that is RAS. He also has the added handicap of actually being able to influence the spreads with his opinions. How many other touts have that problem? You can debate whether he is playing those games himself or if he is betting them both ways after moves all you want, but what he sells his clients is as straightforward as it gets. But if he is doing it himself I have never ever seen him tell people to take the opposite side of a play he has offered if the line moves a certain amount. He has gone round and round that for years. His plays are his plays, he tells people to get the best line they can and use discretion after that.

I dont do tout speak but I know it when I see it. All this new age thinking was invented by people who thought hey were smart, then piggy back on by guys also wanting to look smart and also use as an excuse/reason when they failed. That is why these things take off because people dont lose because they cant pick winners they lose because they got a bad line.

Rate This
  • 67 replies
  • 3 subscribers
  • Posted11 months ago