STEELERS/PATRIOTS OVER 49.5
As most of you know by now I am not your “run of the mill” sports investor. Unlike the common “player” that incorporates some type of personal and/or analytical basis for one’s selections (they are all too some extent important and useless) I will primarily focus on the psychological aspect of a player and/or team dynamic when making an investment. Since I invest primarily in professional sports (where the talent is differentiated by a “microscope”) this psychological analysis is the primary reason why I have suspended my “real job” (criminal forensic psychologist/criminal defense attorney) to focus full time for the last 20 years solely using this formula to “grind” out a “good” living investing in and on sporting events.
With this being stated and since I will be returning only one more time in two weeks for the Super Bowl breakdown (before opening my own sports-investment firm) I wanted to give the reader some knowledge on what I look for within the scope of my investments. This templet is my foundational basis on what I look for in a weekly selection within the NFL and to some extent (much broader scope) when it comes to the daily action of MLB, NBA, and NHL schedule. These various and different components are all equally investigated to the point where a player and/or teams have a great advantage over the number and thus when I will “dive in” with an investment.
In the end I look forward to your highly inquisitive and knowledgeable replies and questions and would be happy to respond in kind once the season is complete. As for today’s games I will first detail the “method to my madness” then at the conclusion interject with my overall breakdown of today’s play and my thoughts on the other game as well. Enjoy!
Confidence
Confidence is the most important mental “muscle” in sports. Confidence is so essential because you may have all the physical, technical, and tactical ability to perform your best, but if you don’t believe you can take the necessary risks, give your best effort, and perform at a high level, you’re not going to use those abilities. Also, confidence is a rather sensitive “mental muscle” that is easily weakened or injured, and difficult to heal and strengthen. Also confidence is affected by forces both outside of you and between your ears.
As you well know, there are many things in sports that are outside of the control of the player. Yet, these same forces can be a huge detriment to one’s confidence and, by extension, other mental muscles such as motivation, intensity, and focus. Environmental factors, such as the field, course, court conditions, and weather, can knock the player’s confidence for a loop.
Social factors that the player can’t control can play games with their confidence. The competitors, coaches, family and friends (both of whom can impose expectations and pressures on the player) can definitely get into and take control of their minds. When the focus is on what others are thinking or doing, they can lodge themselves in one’s head and thus the player becomes unfocused for the upcoming important task ahead. Fatigue and life-stress can “infect” the mind facilitating excuses and justification for poor play. These factors are confidence drainers and what becomes clear is that the reason the player is struggling is not because their tired or stressed-out from their personal life, or because of what people are saying about them. They struggle because the player will have allowed themselves to “think” about those things. And if one is thinking about how tired and stressed-out one is, that’s how they’re going to play. When one doubts their own ability, one cannot maximize it. Remember you become a manifestation of your own thoughts and professional athletes are not immune!
The result is that with this presence in their mind, and all the junk associated with them, can cause the player to lose confidence. These external influences can cause the player to question, doubt, worry, stress out, and be distracted, all of which result in a decline in their individual confidence and with his comes a reluctance to leave it all out on the field of play.
Despite these outside forces, a professional should be to the mental point in their personal and professional development where their confidence should be grounded entirely in their mind and be unaffected by whatever is going on around them. With experience the player has trained their “confidence muscle” in a way that will be strong enough to resist all of those external influences that can cause it to become weakened or injured.
This personal confidence should be built on a few essential areas. First, attitude toward those external forces. With respect to the difficult environmental conditions, the player realizes that everyone has pretty much the same conditions, so it’s not really conditions that matter, but rather how they look at them. Ideally, they have such faith in their capabilities that, when they arrive at a competitive venue and the conditions are poor, they just say, “I’ve got this!”
Second, the player’s confidence should be based on your preparations at three levels.
Meta-Preparations-Involves everything the player has done to develop themselves as an athlete in their sport over the years including conditioning, technical and tactical work, sleep, nutrition, and, of course, mental training.
Macro-Preparation-Includes their training efforts in the week or so leading up to the competition in which they are focused on priming their mind and body to perform their very best. Lastly, their micro-preparation including their game-day routine that leads to that unique statement of readiness in which, when they are about to compete, they can say to themselves “I’m as prepared as I can be to perform my best.”
Finally, the players goal should be to have their confidence constructed out of thinking, emotions, and experiences that come entirely from within themselves and are neither dependent on nor affected by the myriad of external forces that can so easily mess with their mind. If (through experience) the player has strengthen their “confidence muscle” in this way, they create a mental state that is impervious to the “noise” that can surround them on the day of a competition. And, with that state of mind, the player and thus the team is setting themselves up in a god mental state for the task at hand (game). In my analysis all 4 teams today should have this mental aspect in good working order insuring a low level of restrictive play.
Personality
Understanding a player’s/team’s personality is the puzzle piece that is necessary to help understand why and how players/teams react to situations and why they are the way they are. The way that personality effects a player’s/teams sports performance, how they respond to failures and stress, and then how they build themselves back up again. It is fascinating to see how people’s traits and genes, alongside environment and situations affect their behavior and their personality. Below I will describe some personality traits we all have with us. When you read these different states of mind try and find the correlation to the player’s individual mental makeups and also the teams collective state as a whole in determining where the mental advantage is present and highly noticeable even though the physical isn’t. Trait Theory, The Situational Approach, The Social Learning Theory are Interactional views that are distinctly different theories which explains where personality comes from, the different characteristics it has, and ultimately how this affects the players on field performance. You can also translate this mental make-up from an individual to a team’s dynamic as to understand the philosophy behind a team’s preparation for an opponent and is the impetus behind my single investment today.
First I will explain the Trait Theory perspective. This outlook suggests that an individual’s personality is inherited from parental genes. E.g., “I’m aggressive because my parents were aggressive.” This type of personality is innate, stable, and enduring. This basically means that it happens all the time and it is very difficult to change. So if I’m naturally shy, this trait theory says that it is very difficult to change my naturally shy attitude. This theory also says that the individuals are born with natural personality characteristics. If we wanted to teach this shy person to be aggressive, it would be very difficult, because they are naturally shy, and this perspective supports this. It is very natural, genetic, and comes from outside factors (parents). This same philosophy can be translated to a team dynamic as they will naturally have responded when challenged in a protective or assertive way. Think back to the season and try and recollect the teams that “cowered” back into their protective shell when challenged at the extreme level and which teams were the polar opposite and faced the challenge “head on” thus excelled in this highly competitive spot.
In a different outlook some feel that one’s behavior is more learned than instinctive. This perspective is known as the Social Learning Theory. This philosophy states that every/all behavior is learned and copied off someone else. The personality, or behavior one presents, has been learned from somebody else, so if you are naturally aggressive, it is because you’ve learned to be naturally aggressive from your environment, friends, media, and your role models. In school for example, if all your new friends are aggressive in the way they act, speak, and the way they respond to situations, it is likely that you will adopt these same aggressive mannerisms just be socially accepted by them. So, the key thing is that learning can only happen if it is socially reinforced, aka by friends or parents. So, if one become part of a team that is aggressive and your desire is to be part of this group you would then become more aggressive just to be included within this dynamic.
Another philosophy that “mixes” both of the above is coined The Interactional approach. This mental make-up states that personality doesn’t always work in “one box” and that you may have a mixed personality. This combination of traits allows one to predict an individual/team’s behavior when you know their traits and the particular situation they are about to enter.
There is a three-layered response with this complex personality. At its base you have the psychological core, which relates to trait perspective, what you are like day-to-day without any influences from environment or friends or family, it contains your beliefs and your attitudes, and interests. Typical response is when something happens, or you’re put into a certain situation, does your personality change? For example, are you naturally aggressive and loud amongst your friends, but shy and withdrawn among your classmates, strangers, and parents? How do you normally respond to what is going on around you? However, your personality could also change again, how does role related behavior change your behavior. E.g. I’m a shy person, going into some game situations, I become very aggressive and passionate, then I’m made captain and my behavior changes again because of that role.
Now the Narrow Band approach is simple, according to this, you are with a Type ‘A’ or a Type ‘B’.
Type ‘A’ people are: highly competitive, prone to stress, like to be in control, works fast and has a strong desire to achieve, not to mention they have high stress levels and are quite impatient. The Type ‘B’ people are: non-competitive, unambitious, works slowly, lacks desires to succeed, doesn’t enjoys control and are less prone to stress. Example of a Type ‘A’ athlete would be Tom Brady. Brady is a player seems to be totally in control, very competitive, has a strong desire to achieve, and likely has a lot of internal and external stress put upon himself.
In the sporting world today, people with a Type ‘B’ personality would not survive, they would be kicked out immediately. With no desire to achieve and not highly competitive, they wouldn’t bother competing for their rewards.
It’s no coincidence that the 4 teams remaining today have leaders with high Type ‘A’ personalities. One could make the claim that Brady, Rodgers, Ryan, and Roethlisberger all are Type ‘A’ personalities that have allowed their mental approach to permeate throughout their collective teams in so much as the team itself has morphed into becoming the personality that is embodied by their leader.
With this I will now introduced the existence of four personality types: Extrovert and stable, Extrovert and Neurotic, Introvert and Stable and Introvert and Neurotic.
Extroverts = Prefer team oriented situations, are loud, outgoing and bright, become aroused more slowly than introverts, are said to achieve more in higher arousal situations, they require more external stimulation to reach optimum mental and physical state of readiness.
Introverts = Seek out situations where there is relatively little stimulation, High levels of excitation, become aroused more quickly, prefer more activities that require more precision aka archery and darts. They are quite shy, quiet and reserved.
Stable = Predictable moods, don’t really experience intense stress and they recover from stress rapidly.
Neurotic = Display extreme and unpredictable emotions, unreliable moods, they experience high levels of stress and they recover from that stress very slowly.
Do you see a common thread of the personality depiction of the players and teams performing today? Find this “hidden” correlation between team’s personality and their position within the aspects of the game today and you will find these advantages that others miss and which can insure your long term success above all others in the difficult world of sports investing.
In a sports performance then, personality can have a big impact on the way a player/team’s performs and how they respond to situations in the field of play. Not one personality is suited to any given athlete in any particular sport and there are no single personality types that can be used to identify an individual to become more successful than others. However, some high risk takers have a low-level of contentiousness alongside high extroversion and the low risk takers tend to be more stable and have a high level of introversion and contentiousness. It would help however in certain contact sports like football, to be able to switch to the aggressive and competitive nature onto the field, and then to leave it there when the game is over. This way it doesn’t lead you to become very aggressive and overpowering in calm and chilled situations, being able to get you head in gear and switch into focus-mode on the field is extremely handy to be able to do! This conversion of personality seems to be embraced by Ryan, Rodgers, Big Ben, and Brady almost to a “T” and is the main reason why all 4 clubs are batting for a conference championship today.
In terms of which one is better and which one is more valid I would say that I agree strongly with the “mixed bag” perspective. I believe that we all have intrinsic instincts that guide our personality (why are some breed of dogs naturally aggressive and some are not when brought up in the same conditions?) That being said the way you are brought up by your parents (culture) does have a huge impact on the way you behave later on in life. If you are brought up in a very aggressive household, it is likely you will be a very aggressive person. This will be hard to change and, will show in sporting performances (e.g. if your coach has a very aggressive style of teaching/playing, it will come across in your team’s style of play). As the player spends time with teammates their personality will alter slightly, maybe for the better maybe for the worst but as a whole all will come together as one giant team personality that is a major characteristic of the complete team dynamic.
This personality determination brings us to today’s match-ups and the impetus behind my selection and how each of these team’s similar dichotomy will lead them to be assertive within their game plan and in its implementation within the game itself. They both (Ne/Pitt) know each other’s personality and were mentally prepared throughout the week that the opponent will not stop in the pursuit of early points in the hopes of establishing their will. If challenged with being behind this naturally assertive and aggressive nature will motivate the player to excel at the highest level in the hopes of reclaiming their dominance by the recapturing the lead they once lost and feel they are “owed.” Since there is “no tomorrow” NE and Pitt aggressive and assertive personalities should not allow them to become passive and protective. If they do both are finished and they know it! This brings me to now show you how his aggressive/assertive personality is factored into the mindset of the player/team and how this determines their collective Modus Operandi (“M.O”-Method of Operation).
AGGRESSION v ASSERTIVE
Like so many terms the “gasbags” in the media use as to “inform” us on the style of a team one of them is coined “aggressive.” The amusing thing to me is that these so called “experts” are using a term that they mistakenly think is equating to one definition yet is anything but. If they would take 2 minutes to educate themselves on the use and terminology of words they would not only enlightened themselves but correctly inform the viewer/listener exactly what is meant by the terms they are using. Thus we get to the overused term of “aggressive.” Let me help you define the actual meaning.
“Aggression is behavior with a goal.” Firstly, aggression falls into three categories; hostile instrumental aggression, and assertion. To determine which behavior is “in play” I pinpoint a list of four which will determine whether we are talking about aggression, or assertion. If one of these criteria is not met, assertion is happening, however if all four are met, you can then decide whether the behavior in mind, is indeed hostile or instrumental. The four points are:
- It is a form of behavior: aggression can be either physical or verbal behavior.
- It involves causing harm or injury: aggression is designed to cause either physical or physiological harm.
- The injury or harm is directed towards another being.
- The aggression must be intentional: an accident cannot be classed as aggression.
Now aggressive behavior is all about the intention, not the outcome. Hostile aggression is “inflicting harm” whether it is physical or psychological, on someone else. It is sometimes referred to as reactive aggression and can be accompanied by anger. “I f****** hit him hard.” “Take that you a******.” These quotes are examples of the players comments which shows that they set out to harm the opposing player (think Vontaze Burfict and Ndamukong Suh in how they each approach the opponent and play the game)
Opposite to this type of aggression we have instrumental. “This is displaying aggressive behavior in the pursuit of a non-aggressive goal, sometimes referred to as channeled aggression.” Now this type of aggression comes about mostly in contact sports. The player in his pursuit of the opponent is 100% going for the task! He isn’t aiming to harm or injure, as the players aren’t holding grudges and they both shake hands at the end when playing against each other. Tackles and “hits” aren’t personal and any injuries that occur were not intentional.
Assertive behavior is different from aggressive behavior because the player is playing within the rules of the game. Assertive behavior links to four main criteria:
- Is goal directed.
- Not intended to harm or injure.
- Uses only legitimate force (even if this amount could be classed as aggression in a non-sport or non-game situation).
- Does not break any rules of the game.
Behavior in sport will come down to hostile, instrumental, or assertive. When criteria are not matched in all 4 metrics (above) assertive behaviors is most likely. What behavior the team implements today will have a huge impact on their emotional psyche and thus how they play. Find the assertive unit and this revelation will be a huge advantage in finding our solution (game winner).
So far we’ve seen the types of aggression and aggressive behavior, along with how to differentiate between these behaviors. Now we can see the causes of aggression, the three theories’ we are learning about are the Instinct Theory, The Social Learning Theory, and the Frustration-Aggression Theory.
Firstly, the Instinct Theory, this suggests “we have an instinct to be aggressive that builds until we can release that aggression in some way.”
Secondly, the Social Learning Theory, this states that “aggression is a behavior that we learn from observing others and experiencing reinforcement for such behaviors.”
The third theory is the Frustration-Aggression Theory. This says that “aggression comes from you being frustrated by not achieving goals or having progress towards a goal blocked.”
Now that we have an insight to what causes aggression, what the different types of aggression are, and how to clarify the aggression, we now need to see how it influences the performance of the team and individual and more importantly how this effects the overall outcome of those involved.
MOTIVATION
Motivation can be defined simply as “the direction and intensity of one’s effort.” The direction of this effort refers to the ‘thing’ or ‘things’ that motivate the individual/group, whether that is intrinsically or extrinsically it doesn’t matter. For example, a student may be motivated to do well in class. Now the intensity of one’s effort is also key to the level of motivation that is occurring. How much effort exactly are they putting into that situation. A student might be turning up to class and want to be there but if they are not putting time or effort into their studies inside or outside the classroom they are not going to develop.
As I mentioned previously, extrinsic and intrinsic motivation are two categories that separate what we are motivated by. Extrinsic motivation occurs when you are playing in order to win an award or to avoid punishment. The players are motivated by an external desire. Intrinsic motivation will occur when you are taking part in a sport because you enjoy it and it is personally rewarding. You don’t care about winning awards; you take part because it makes you feel good. You are motivated by an internal desire.
Extrinsic and intrinsic motivation tells us what we are motivated by, whether it is from internal or external sources. But we also have trait centered views and situation centered views that tells us not what we get motivated by, but where this motivation has come from. Trait centered views say that motivated behavior is a direct cause of an individual’s characteristics. The characteristics in question are their individual personality, their needs and their goals. This trait centered view is part of a fix mind-set as it implies that the coach can do nothing to the individual to motivate them. I would argue that a lot of us are affected in some way from the environment around us and the situation that we are put into. The second view therefore is the situation centered view. This states that motivation level is determined by the situation. However, people may argue how the athlete’s motivation can be explained when the situation is unfavorable. The Interactional view is most widely supported by sports psychologists and coaches, this view explains that motivation doesn’t solely come from your characteristics or solely from the situation you are and is a mixture of them both so the best way of explaining what motivation is, is to explore how the two views interact.
Motivation Theories explain the reasons why some people are extremely motivated to achieve their goals, and why others seem to just be along for the ride. The achievement motivation theory “refers to a person’s effort to master a task, achieve excellence, overcome obstacles, perform better than others, and take pride in exercising talent.” It is these characteristics that allow the athlete to achieve excellence and for students to maximize their learning. When faced with a task they face an approach-avoidance conflict. They are motivated to approach and take part by their desire to succeed, but are also motivated to avoid taking part by their desire to avoid failure. Therefore, their individual motivation level is determined by two factors, the need to achieve and the need to avoid failure. The people with the highest level of motivation are those who will take every risk and not care if they fail because they would know that it does not work. They are also people who will do everything in their power to achieve.
The other theory is the Attribution Theory. This focuses on how people explain their successes and failures. It puts all the many thousands of answers and explanations given by performers into just three categories:
- Stability (consistent or variable)
- Locus of causality (external or internal)
- Locus of control (not under our own control)
How someone views their performance can have a link to their success and future expectations. For example, if a player says that his excellent performance is due to his own ability and the extra effort he puts in, in training he is more likely to take this forward and believe in himself therefore increasing motivation and confidence. However, if they feel as if they have just performed well by luck their motivation and confidence going forward is less likely to been enhanced.
The factors that affect motivation, or contribute to it include; the behavior of the leader/coach, the physical environment, and the influence of other players on the team. If the leader behaves in a certain manner and, normally points out all the bad stuff in a player performance, if they don’t build you up you in turn will lose your motivation because all that is being pointed to you is how bad you are, not how much you are progressing. This can have a serious effect on the player, as you may not want to go on and lose your motivation to do well and achieve. The Physical environment will also affect your motivation levels, for example some players hate training and playing in the rain, cold, or in other types of weather. This might not have motivated them to play or work hard, in the conditions so it depends on the player and their personality.
Another thing that could affect the players level of motivation is the others on the team. If his/her teammates are all highly motivated to do well, and will work very hard to get their training and fitness to a maximum, it is likely that you will push yourself to that level to, so not to feel behind. On the other hand, if none of them are putting in the effort needed, it is likely that you won’t either. So motivation can be effected both positively and negatively by these three factors.
Motivation is a major focus of my sports investing philosophy but as involves today’s games I think it is safe to say that all 4 teams are highly motivated to win not only for themselves but the organization as a whole. You could make a claim that because the Packers and Steelers lost earlier in the year to the Falcons and Patriots respectively they will have extra motivation. In a normal scenario you would be correct but since there is a large prize on the end of the stick for the winner (Super Bowl) this added motivation for the regular season loser is negligible at best.
Team Dynamics and Performance
The Psychological factors that affects a team performance can be critical to the success or failure of that team. Group Development is one of the most important factors that many others will fall or link in to. Leadership style, Leadership Behavior, Cohesion, Type of Team, and Social Loafing will all affect the direction and fluidity of the group’s development stages.
Cohesion is a dynamic process, reflected in the tendency of a group to stick together and remain united in a pursuit of their objectives. There are two types of cohesion; Social is more about how well you get along with others and Task is more about how well you work with a team to achieve a common goal. In a way the teams are going for the task cohesion, where they work together towards a common goal. That isn’t to say that it isn’t important for them to get on well with each other, because it is but just in this moment they learn to work together towards a common goal, the liking of each other came later.
The four main factors affecting their cohesion is the environment, the leadership, the team, and the personal lives. The leadership and team had a positive effect on their cohesion. Without cohesion and without the team bonding/working together and supporting each other, the later stages of the group development and ultimately group dynamics will not be achieved. The players needed to/were sticking together and so they came out on top and were able to achieve the success they deserved.
The cohesion within these 4 teams playing today was not built overnight and has progressed and developed throughout the season which has allowed the type of team to instill the climate within the group to come together and for them to get rid of any social loafing going on. In the beginning the players were working separately towards a common goal, aka a co-active team. As time went on they started to work together towards a common goal. This will help the group dynamics because now they are starting to work together, results will come in, and their goals will seem more achievable. Next the Climate. We can now see the players in the locker room laughing and conversing as the needs of all that were once separate and personal in nature are coming tougher as one big team goal of a championship. Gone are the personal accolades as it is the team that is the focus and not the individual. Which team is a joined together for the common good of the team and which is more individualistic in its dynamic that is playing today? Here a concern appears for me to consider (today’s games) from the climate perspective. We saw it appear 2 weeks ago with the NY Giants and Odell Beckham’s boat trip and now we have it here today with the Antonio Bryant’s Social Media locker-room video. Personally I don’t think what the players did was egregious but is not me or the media that should speculate on how the various acts disrupted the climate of each locker-room dynamic but for us to “read between the lines” as it pertains to the team’s statements and conduct moving forward to find this possible psychological edge as to make an investment. In addition, another team dynamic question and observation for me is with Green Bay. The Packers as a collective unit don’t seem mind that all the attention is given to QB Rodgers. Yes, he is the leader but the team is virtually invisible as it pertains to their success. Right now it doesn’t appear to be an issue as the team has accepted this atmosphere. I will be interested in the eventual toll this will inflict and once the team hits a negative stretch it will be interesting to see if Rodgers “takes the hit” as well as he captures the glory and how the team reacts if and possibly when he throws everyone else “under the bus” as he has a propensity to do. Just something to look out for in the future with this one-man media focused QB and his team of virtual unknowns.
Now, on to my selection. If you look back not too long ago to the final week of the season my main post was on the Packers v Lions match-up. In this selection (“over”) I based my reasoning on the importance of the game (at the time of writing it was assumed that the winner was in the playoffs and the loser out) and in my opinion the immediacy of being assertive in each team’s attack. I based my philosophy on the fact that each team knew coming in that the other team has multiple weapons that could successfully attack their defensive weakness. If they didn’t score and continue this assertive game plan they could fall behind to the point that it would be impossible to catch-up. Yes, it would be nice to think that each team’s defense could make a stop and disrupt the opponent’s offense but to base your game plan around this notion would be unwise. Same thing goes for this match-up in Foxboro.
Just think about it. Say for example Pittsburgh or New England is up 17-10 midway through the 3rd quarter, do you think the leader (QB/Coach) will want to play it safe, run the ball, and play protective defense? I would like you to mention this to HC Tomlin just to see his reaction. Conversely if it was the opposite I actually think this very comment would bring the normally stale Belichick to break out in a laughing fit unlike anything we have ever seen out of this ever so stoic and curmudgeon Pats HC. Why such a reaction? Because just like the Packers v Lions game both of these teams (Ne/Pitt) know that the other will not stop in their pursuit of points since A) they are confident with their individual talent that they can in fact score and B) When they look across the field at the multitude of weapons that the opponent has that can do damage to their own pursuit of glory they as a team can’t afford to let up!
There are some concerns and it reverts back to today’s column under the climate (noted above) and Pittsburgh's confidence factor. I have absolutely no doubt that regardless of the score, time left in the game, and past performance within the game that the Patriots will be confident in their ability to score whatever is needed to be victorious. Conversely although the Steelers have the better weaponry the demise of Roethlisberger is becoming more prevalent on a weekly basis. His pass selection and inaccuracies have to be concerning by not only to the coaching staff and players alike but the entire organizations as well.
As for both defenses much has been made about statistical rankings and improvement for the beginning of the year to now. Yes, granted they have improved but after watching the “ALL 22” of both games last weekend it was more the lack of opposing QB play than each team’s defensive dominance. KC QB Smith inexplicably didn’t throw downfield whatsoever throughout the entire game even though his team was perpetuity behind and from the video consistently with wide open receivers. Only when forced at “gunpoint” did Smith take a chance and ironically was successful in this approach. I don’t know how this game will play out but I can virtually guarantee that Brady will not make this same choice when presented with this same option (open receivers).
Conversely the Pats were in my opinion a halfway decent opposing QB away from watching this game instead of playing in it. Although Texans QB Osweiler did throw the ball downfield his highly inaccurate and off the target throws were his shortcomings as the argument could be made from the video that the Texans WR’s were more open than the Chiefs wide-outs were. Also if WR Fuller makes a sure TD catch in the 4th quarter to cut the lead to 4 one got the feeling that the Pats might have been is some deep trouble. Although Roethlisberger is struggling he is nowhere in the league of dysfunction that Osweiler is in and will make at least some of the plays that the Texans left out on the field. Plus, the Steelers will not play for field goals like last week. They know that the Chiefs couldn’t hurt them so grabbing points when offered was just fine for the protective mode Steelers against the QB limited and offensively inept Chiefs. Not the case here as Pittsburgh knows all too well that if they take 3 for 7 their season will come to a crashing halt.
In the end the although the conditions are dry and the temps acceptable the forecast for the increasing winds during the game does give me some concern. That being stated I will rest in the fact that both teams are conditioned to excel in these potentially windy conditions as both are “winterized.” Thus I will stick with 2 highly focused, prepared, and promotionally focused teams that will be looking to set the pace and not let up. I would really like to play Pittsburg and if it goes to +7 I might me temped to “jump in.” The problem I have is not from a talent standpoint since I actually feel that from top to bottom the Steelers are more physically talented than the Pats and it’s a rarity that New England is facing a QB (Roethlisberger) that can match the talent, experience, and accolades of the Hall of Famer Brady. This being said I just have his lingering doubt that Pittsburgh with their young and inexperienced defense (minus Harrison) is up or the barrage that they will face today and with Big Ben’s road struggles, eroding play, Belichick/Tomlin coaching mismatch, Brady’s gaudy stats against the Steelers (19 TD’s 0 INT’s last 6 games) and the difficulty in winning 2 straight road playoff games reinforces my lingering Steeler doubt. Although with their championship pedigree the Steelers will be hard to “kill” in this spot; unless this line inflates (+7) I will revert to my instincts and play on the assertive nature of both teams in his spot, where in my opinion, should be a back and forth-punch counter-punch affair as each isn’t going to hold back from the pursuit of the ultimate prize (Super Bowl), facing a team they respect, and which can do some serious damage to them if they let up.
*As for Atlanta-Green Bay. Just like above where I would love to play Pittsburgh I feel the same hesitation with the Packers. Just like with the Steelers I will find it very difficult to not play the also tough to “kill” Pack at +7 but with so many injuries its tough to go on the road and beat a very good offensive club with a “one-man team” (Rodgers). These situations will keep me off of them but I can’t take an Atlanta team with that “leaky” defense going up against the “magician” (Rodgers). Also even though this total is extremely high it does appear on the surface to be an over play. That being said I just can’t invest in an over 61 for such an important game. Since this is a championship game at some point the game flow has to slow down and could be “infected” by a conservative and protective coaching decision stretch which would systematically end any thoughts of cashing an over ticket, so because of this possibility I will pass. *
In conclusion now you know my philosophy behind my investments. Keep these factors in mind when making your own decisions moving forward as you “fight the good fight” in the highly difficult world of 11/10.
In the end all of the teams playing today have faced many factors psychologically that have affected their performance and the dynamics within the team. Some have affected positively and others negatively. Championship teams are a superb example of how many psychological factors can affect a team’s performance and how they respond to different situations thrown at them as a team and how they all overcome, adapted, and persevered when others with the same if not more talent fell by the wayside. These 4 teams went up against all that the league and society has brought against them and have survived to come out stronger because of it. So who is the toughest of the tough? That is for you to decipher and is the difference (in my opinion) between the professional and the amateur in the world of sports investing! Enjoy the games!
OTHER PLAYS:
NONE
LAST WEEK 0-2-0
RECORD TO DATE:
2016/ 45-40-3-53%
2015/ 36-18-5-67%
2014/ 34-24-5-59%
OVERALL TOTAL/ 115-82-13-58%
GOOD FORTUNE TO ALL! FORENSIC PhD!