2016 NFL Record:
86 – 78 @ 52% for +0.2 Units
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#2: Atlanta Falcons -6
#3: UNDER 60.5 GB/ATL
This is the end of the road for the Packers. Yes, their offense has played at a high level for a long time, but I don’t see that happening today. The fact that three of their key receivers are barely able to suit up for this one is a huge factor. Why? Because you have to score points against the Falcons, the #1 ranked offense in the league. While Green Bay got out a big lead last week, and barely hang on in the second half, they won’t have the same luxury in this one. I thought that Dallas was the overall ‘better’ team last week, just a bit unlucky in the first half. But will the Falcons under-perform early as well today? Doubtful. This is as confidence of an offense juggernaut as I’ve seen in awhile. And there’ll be a lot more pressure on Rodgers to keep the game close today than there was last week. If anyone can do it, it’s him of course, but it’s much harder when you’re dealing with heavily banged up receivers at your disposal. I like the Falcons at under a TD here.
Additionally, let’s not forget the dynamic Atlanta running game. Build a lead early, and pound away on the ground in the second half, is how I see this game shaking out. The O/U over 60 is the highest number I’ve ever seen in the post-season. My model has this one at 55 total points, thus providing us with a ton of value in this one.
Good Luck