Had this written out on Saturday when only the look ahead lines were available. Just trying to share some thoughts on the upcoming card, some of my words may be outdated since it was written before Sunday's games.
Raiders-Chiefs: Alex Smith is 10-42 SU when opponent scores over 21 points. Most quarterbacks will have losing records in that situation, but his record is considerably worse. I think Oakland can hit that magic number. Oakland wideouts have a plus matchup and the OLine is very good. Have to lean getting over a field goal if that is the line
Broncos-Titans: I'm not a fan of Lynch, he has a lot of work and developing to do. Denver's run d has struggled this year, but the Titans wideouts will not threaten them at all. Denver is the mentally strong team, who I trust way more. End of that bears game was alarming and the Denver starting wideouts got big matchup edges.
Chargers- Panthers: Lean Chargers if it's over a field goal. Carolina's secondary won't be able to stop Rivers. Cam 48% completions his last two games and appears to be forcing things, trying to live up to his MVP award. Seems to me that he's playing hero ball and uncomfortable in the pocket. By the way, Kalil is on IR, so he is done for the season, as is the Panthers backup center and Michael Oher.
Texans-Colts: Probably going to pass. Indy outplayed them in Houston and Texans probably can't expose indy defense. Indy's roster stinks but very mentally tough team IMO who beats up on other bad teams typically.
Bengals-Browns: If the Browns are gonna win, this might be it. And they likely know it. Lean Browns but don't know if I'll have the balls to bet them. Jeremy Hill destroyed this team last time they played. Browns far better weapons.
Steelers-Bills: I like to back steelers when they have their backs against the wall. If the Ravens win and Pitt is still behind them, may sit this out. Buffalo's offense is on fire at home, and it shocks me considering how bad the receiving weapons have been for them on paper
Cards-Dolphins: Don't believe in Miami. However, Arizona stinks on early start times this season and have also been awful on the road this season. Peterson (Who can lock down Parker) and Mathiue (who will cover Landry) injuries are worth monitoring. Probably gonna be Arizona or pass.
Bears-Lions: Chicago Roster is destroyed by injuries and I can't see myself backing them much to end this season. Detroit has revenge from earlier in the season on their mind. One thing to remember about Detroit that the public isn't aware of.. Team has played extremely slow past month in a half, trying to mimic Cowboys style of ball control. That is why they have allowed 20 points or less in six straight games I believe. That, and playing anemic offenses
Vikings-Jaguars: The Vikings offense stinks and it's especially bad on the road. I believe they average something around 13 offensive PPG on the road, don't have the official number in front of me. It may be worse, to be honest. It may have to be a field goal or less to consider Minnesota. Minnesota needs turnovers to win games, and this is a matchup where they can realistically force a lot of turnovers. Diggs has extra rest so I would assume he will play. The statistical splits that he has had this year when on the injury report compared to off the injury report have been ridiculous. Worth monitoring the injuries to Hurns, Thomas, Ivory, and Yeldon. Jags have an underrated defense. Low scoring game, but I trust Minnesota to not turn the ball over and they are superior coached team. But for them to win and cover, they likely are gonna have to force turnovers, and that's a tough thing to make a substantial bet on.
Saints-Bucs: If the line is PK, a tiny bit of value on Tampa. But don't have strong feelings on the matchup at the moment.
Redskins- Eagles: Skins have a lot of weapons to attack this Eagles secondary, which stinks in my opinion and overachieved earlier in the season. Philly has been a much better team at home this season. Philly has revenge from earlier in the season. They got outplayed substantially but made it close because of two non offensive touchdowns. Would say a lean towards Washington at the moment. Both offenses are very solid in EDSR (Early down success rate)
Jets-49ers: I do think the 49ers have looked better recently and Kaep has played decent. Chip Kelly gets the most out of his quarterbacks and they have put up decent numbers. I do think Kaep is a better fantasy QB then real life QB, and I do think it's gonna catch up with him. He lacks the touch, poise in the pocket, and accuracy to be a good long term QB in my opinion, and it may even catch up with him this season. The Jets could be flat coming into this game. Rumors say that Revis is tired of playing and his efforts been questioned all year. Wilkerson and Richardson have shown up late to meetings. The 49ers have one of the worst defenses of the last decade IMO and they bleed rushing yards. The Jets do have decent weapons to attack them. It's just very hard for me to back either one of these teams at the moment.
Seahawks-Packers: I have strong feelings towards this one . Depending on the line, I may bet Seattle big. The packers have played the easiest schedule of opposing pass defenses in the NFL, and although they have an above average offense, I don't think it's "back". They have beat up on some pretty bad defenses over the last month in a half. The lack of a running game is gonna catch up to them and you can't be one dimensional against Seattle. The packers are also an isolation routes heavy offense and the Seahawks typically struggle with offenses that use bunch formations, pick routes, etc. This is a big game for Seattle who is trying to get a bye week and they don't like the Packers either. The packers offense has struggled historically against Seattle (Although they looked good last year against them). The Seahawks have a ton of favorable matchups against the Packers defense.
Falcons-Rams: Maybe a lean towards Rams. I could see it being a flat spot for Atlanta. But hard to trust the worst offense in the NFL against the leagues best offense. Just to many ways for Atlanta to score and to little for the Rams.
Cowboys-Giants: Lean Dallas. What wins in December, outdoors? Typically, it's the team that can control the LOS. Dallas' run game is light years ahead of the Giants. I do think The Giants are overrated and lack of run game will hurt them in postseason. Dallas is for real, and they are surely pissed about the only loss of their season being against the Giants. They are gonna want to prove it was a fluke and that they can beat anyone.
Ravens-Pat: Might bet this one early. Double digits is a gift, especially since the Rams are only getting 3 points more. Baltimore defense can shut down the run and get to Brady who's clearly hobbled. Ravens historically play Brady extremely tough. Patriots defense overrated.