2015 NFL Record
22 – 8 @ 73% for +13.2 Units
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#1: Premium Play $5 - Click Here
#2: Atlanta Falcons -7
#3: Cincinnati Bengals -3 -120
#4: Cleveland Browns +7 -115
#5: St Louis Rams +9
#6: Kansas City Chiefs -9
#7: Denver Broncos -4.5
#8: Dallas Cowboys +9
#9: New York Giants -6.5
Good Luck
NFL Week 5 Breakdowns:
JAX @ TB -3
Last time the Bucs were 3-point favorites they got smoked by the Titans at home 42-14. Now we have a similar situation here. There are a couple of factors to consider in this one. Jags rank 4th defensively against the run. This directly leads to the 2nd factor: Winston is one of the worst QB’s in the league, sporting a QBR of 36, ranked 28th. If the Jags can shut down the run-game (Mankins most likely out for Tampa), it will be up to Winston to move the ball on offense and win the game. Time after time, he’s shown incapable of doing so on a consistent basis. His 4 INT’s last week were ugly as he was directly responsible for Tampa losing the game. Jags have a better QB (I thought I’d never say that), as Bortles is an average 17th in QBR at 58. Two bad teams battling here but you have to give the edge to the team with a better QB and catching a FG in this one.
Lean: JAX +3
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BUF @ TEN PK
Buffalo went from -3 opener to PK throughout the week, with close to 80% of the tickets on ‘em. Interesting. The Bills will be without McCoy, Watkins (questionable but didn’t sound confident he’s ready), and Karlos Williams. The Bills are going up against a Titans D that ranks 2nd against the pass but dead-last (32nd) against the run. Minus their top-2 RB’s, the Bills will be forced to move the ball via the pass more than they probably prefer in this one. Sure the Titans faced off against TB, CLE, and the underperforming Colts, but their defense against the pass is still pretty impressive (-57% DVOA, +11%, and -16% in those 3 games). They’re also getting Jason McCourty back, a CB that ranked 6th, 21st, and 50th out of about 110+ over the last 3 years (missed the first 3 games of the year). The Titans also rank 5th in ASR (Adjusted Sack Rate), and they’ll be going against a poor Bills O-line. With two weeks to prepare (coming off a BYE) it would seem that the Titans are in a good spot to perform well in this game. I know everyone is expecting a ‘bounce back’ for Buffalo, but I think you have to look at the home-team in this one. Mariotta had two weeks to work with Dorial Green-Beckham (6’5 raw monster at WR) and Delanie Walker (missed some time with injury) as I expect this Titans offense to be well prepared for this one. I believe Titans +3 is a ‘lock’ as a play this week and consideration should be made for the home team at PK as well.
Lean: TEN PK
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CLE @ BAL -7
Last week the Browns faced a team that was devoid of anyone able to protect their QB (Chargers’ O-line was in shambles). This week they’ll face a team that really has ‘no one’ to throw the ball to. In addition to Gillmore and Perriman out for the Ravens, Steve Smith will sit this one out as well. He leads the team with 47 targets with the next one being Forsett at 19. This is a huge loss for the Ravens. I know the Browns struggle defensively, but even they should be able to put eight in the box and try to eliminate Baltimore’s run-game, forcing Flacco to rely on inexperienced, replacement-level receivers. I know the Ravens have had 10-days to prepare, but still, it’s awfully hard to imagine this team being efficient on the offensive end. Cleveland is dealing with some injuries in their secondary (Haden, Williams, Gipson) but even if 1 or 2 of these guys play it’ll be an upgrade, making it even more difficult for the Ravens’ O. Keep in mind that Baltimore was a FG-kick away from being 0-4 this season, and all of their games have been within 6 points or less. Laying a TD in this one is a clear over-evaluation in my opinion.
Lean: CLE +7
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WAS @ ATL -7
Coming off a blowout home win and a big divisional game @ NO upcoming on Thursday Night, could this be a potential ‘look ahead’ spot for the Falcons? One potential factor to consider here is that Atlanta’s offensive coordinator is Kyle Shnahan, and he spent 3 seasons as Washington’s O-coordinator from 2010-2013. He knows a number of key players like Cousins, Morris, and Garcon, and if anyone is familiar with their strengths and weakness it’s him. Plus I’m wondering how much he’s looking forward to this game against his former employer. To make matters worse, Washington will be without Culliver and Hall, their top-2 CB’s. Is this the game where Julio Jones goes wild? Last week this undermanned Washington secondary allowed TD strikes of 62, 10, and 39 yards to a very inefficient Philly offense, who averaged 6.3 YPP and 7.1 PY/A. What’s going to happen when they take on the 4th ranked ATL offense, and 5th via the pass? In order for them to keep this game close I think Washington will have to score points. Missing Jordan Reed and DeSean Jackson will make it very difficult to do so. Washington played well last week at home and their come-back victory in the final minute of the game was impressive. But this one feels like a ‘flat spot’ for this team, especially since they’ll be facing a much better O. This is the best offense that Washington has had to face so far this season, and I’m just not convinced they’ll be able to keep up here.
Lean: ATL -7
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CHI @ KC -9
Here are a few facts to digest:
- Cutler ranks 16th in QBR (58) and 15th in QB-Efficiency (+3% DVOA).
- Alex Smith ranks 33rd in QBR (30) and 26th in QB-Efficiency (-14%).
- The two teams rank 30th (KC) and 31st (CHI) defensively.
- The Chiefs were listed as -4 home favorites in this matchup when the lines came out way before the season.
So easy play on the Bears here right? Well it doesn’t look like either Royal or Jeffery will suit up, as both missed practice on Friday. Chicago lost their center Will Montgomery for the year after he fractured his fibula last week and Bushrod will miss another week with a concussion/shoulder injury. And of course Cutler can implode at any time. Last week the Bears’ D played their best game of the season and had a monster effort. I doubt we’ll see a repeat of that this week, especially on the road in Arrowhead and missing their starting safety Antrel Rolle. Through the first 3 weeks their average defensive DVOA was +32% (absolutely awful, basically 32% worse on D than average unit). In week 4 it was -20%. Which one is an outlier? Charles, Kelce, and Macline should have big games. On the other side, this will be Seth Smith’s 2nd game following his suspension so I’d expect him to play even better. In addition, let’s not forget that KC features one of the best pass-rushers in the league in Justin Houston. The Chiefs faced off against elite teams - DEN, GB, and CIN - the last 3 weeks, all losses. With Bears coming to town off a win, I think this is a potential blow-out spot for the visitors as I expect a very strong showing from KC.
Lean: KC -9
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NO @ PHI -5.5
Tough to lay points with this underachieving Philly squad. At the same time, Brees didn’t look very good last week and seemed to really struggle with the deep pass. The Eagles sport the 5th ranked defense, which could very well dominate in this matchup. Just too many unknowns about Brees’ health here for me to back him and the Saints on the road.
PASS
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STL @ GB -9
Remember when the Rams won against Seattle in week 1, and proceeded to get dominated @ Washington the next week? Well, they now are coming off another huge divisional win, beating the Cards on the road in week 4. Are they going to fall-apart this coming week? I’m not so sure. The difference is that against Washington, the Rams were a -3 point home favorite, a clear over-reaction to their week 1 performance. This week, they’re a +9 road underdog, so I don’t believe there’s an adjustment there. A couple of factors in St Louis’ favor in this matchup. Missing Jordy Nelson, Green Bay will be without Devante Adams as well here. Randall Cobb tweaked his shoulder last week, and though he’s supposedly healthy, a hard hit could re-injure it at any time. Let’s also remember that Bulaga is still out, so Rams’ pass-rush should be even more a factor. I think it’s also important to note that St Louis plays in a division with Seattle and San Fran, two teams that features a mobile QB. Rodgers is one of best outside the pocket, but Rams might have more success containing him in such scenarios than most other defenses. On the other side you have a Rams offense that is beginning to feature a few playmakers in Gurley and Austin. These guys could be major difference makers in this one. I know the Packers are a great team, and they’re virtually unbeatable at home, but 9 points is a ton in this matchup. Rams have held an elite Pittsburgh offense to 12 points and have already beaten both SEA and ARZ, two teams that are considered to be on a similar level as the Packers. I think they have a solid chance for a cover in this one.
Lean: STL +9
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SEA @ CIN -3
The Seahawks came within an inch of being 1-3 heading into this game, and frankly this is not the same ‘dominant’ team we’ve seen in years past. Coming off a hard-fought Monday night win, they now go on the road to play the 1 PM game in the Eastern time zone. This is an extremely tough spot to be in. Here are couple of additional factors against the Seahawks. They feature the 20th ranked offense in the league and only 24th via the pass. Without Lynch in the backfield, this team will have a tough time moving the ball against Cincy’s 10th ranked D. Additionally this game will feature the #1 ranked Cincy O-line, with an ASR of only 2.2% (2 sacks allowed) and the #32 ranked Seattle O-line, with an ASR of 12% and 18 sacks allowed, most in the league. The cliché that NFL games are won in the ‘trenches’ should be in full display here. The only way I see Cincy losing this game is if Dalton totally falls apart. He’s been the 2nd best QB in the league this year (QBR of 88 ranked #2 and QB-Efficiency of +50%, also #2), and though I expect him to play well, his past performances against good defensive teams are always a risk. Still, Cincy is clearly a ‘better’ team right now and only laying 3 points at home indicates that the teams are evenly matched. I don’t believe that’s the case and there’s solid value on Cincy at this number. They’re 14-4 ATS at home over the last few eyars and I like their chances of adding to this trend this week.
Lean: CIN -3
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ARZ @ DET +3
The Lions ended up on the losing end of that Monday night game last week and though the game only had a 3-point margin, it really wasn’t that close. Detroit gave up almost 100 more yards to the Seahawks and allowed 5.5 YPP, and the only reason this one was close was because they recovered 3 fumbles on D, one of which was returned for a TD. The Lions were once again pretty mediocre and didn’t do anything special. To me they still have the look of one of the worst teams in the league. On the other side, we have an Arizona squad that is coming off a home loss to a divisional rival. Is this a ‘bounce-back’ spot for them? I believe so. Arizona’s 3rd ranked D should be able to contain Stafford who is one of the worst QB’s in the league this year (26th in QBR). In addition, Patrick Peterson (#12 ranked CB this by PFF) and Tyrann Mathieu (#2 ranked CB), can have success defending CJ and Tate. If that’s the case, this could be a really tough game for Lions’ 23rd ranked offense. On the other side, Lions got banged up on D Monday night, as they’ll be without DT (Tyrunn Walker – out for the year) and DT Haloti Ngata. Featuring a 24th ranked pass-D, if Detroit is unable to contain the run (and I think they’ll have a lot of trouble there this week) this one could turn into a blowout quickly. Overall a tough spot for the Lions, facing an ‘elite’ team coming off a loss.
Lean: ARZ -3
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NE @ DAL +9
I know the Pats are coming off a BYE but this one feels like way too many points here. Weeden ranks 7th in QB Efficiency and QBR so far this season, which are pretty impressive numbers. New England is 8th against the pass defensively but they’re 16th overall, being brought down by their 29th rank against the run. If Dallas can run the ball successfully (they’ve done so for the last 2 years), then Weeden can play well in this one. Remember, Dallas still has the best O-line in football and enough playmakers on offense to play well at home. On defensive end though is where the Cowboys will need to perform in order to keep this game close. Well this is the game where we’ll see the debut of Hardy and McClain, as well as Sean Lee will return after getting hurt in the first quarter of last week’s game. These three players are all quality defenders and should be a big upgrade for Dallas’ defensive unit. If Lee can play solid coverage on Gronk, McClain can provide support in run-D, and Hardy can put pressure on Brady, Dallas can keep this one close. New England has a game @ Indy next week, but they better not be overlooking the Cowboys in this one. Even without Romo and Bryant, this is a quality Dallas team, and additions of solid defensive players should only make this team better going forward.
Lean: DAL +9
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DEN @ OAK +4.5
How impressive are Oakland’s win against a 1-3 Ravens team (probably should be 0-4) and a 1-3 Browns squad? The Raiders got dominated at home by Cincy in week 1 and lost to a bad Bears team on the road last week. Now they’ll go up against Denver’s #1 ranked defense. Last season the Broncos were -12 point road favorite in this matchup and a -16 point home favorite in the rematch. They won by 24 and by 33 respectively. Now all of a sudden the spread is 7.5 points lower. The Broncos’ offense isn’t very good but the Raiders feature a weak pass-rush and rank 26th against the pass. I’m just not sure this Raiders team is ready to play close games against a Denver squad that has absolutely dominated them over the last few years. Broncos might not be as good as they were in the years past (offensively at least. They’re filthy on D), but they’re still a better team than the Raiders.
Lean: DEN -4.5
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SF @ NYG -6.5
The Niners are the worst team in the league and it’s not even that close. Bears, Texans, Bucs, and Dolphins are all up there (or should I say “down there”), but even those teams aren’t as bad as San Fran. This team has scored 28 points in the last 3 games, while allowing 107 in that span. That’s a 79 point differential or more than 26 per game. The issue for them in this matchup with the Giants is that New York is the #1 ranked run-Defense in the league. If the Giants shut down the run, as I expect them to, San Fran will have to rely on their 32nd ranked pass-O to move the ball, something that Kaepernick and Co. have shown to be incapable of doing. My model has the Giants favored by over 13 points in this game and honestly I’m surprised this spread is as low as it is. New York probably should be 4-0 right and is a top-10 team in the league from my perspective. Getting them at under a TD at home in a prime time slot is a steal.
Lean: NYG -6.5