(+7.5) DETROIT (11 - 4) at GREEN BAY (11 - 4) - 12/28/2014, 4:25 PM
POOR DETROIT TRENDS
Detroit struggles on road [32% since 2006; 25-43-3 ATS]
Worse on grass [covered only 5 of 17]
Detroit after a win: covered the next game only 7 of 27 times
Detroit in December: 3-13 ATS (last four seasons)
GB AT HOME
Lions 0-23 at Green Bay (4-18-1 ATS)
Long-time Top 5 home field advantage
but playing even better this year…
Packers have outscored opponents 172-30 in the first half of the last five HOME games
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Detroit (overall since 2011): 25-38-1 ATS
Detroit on 2 or more game winning streak: 9-19 ATS
Calvin Johnson last four games: 29 catches for 460 yards and 3 TDs
Matthew Stafford is 0-16 SU on the road (including playoffs) in starts against teams that ended the season with a winning record
Lions have won only 3 of last 17 games vs. Packers (4-12-1 ATS) – though won 2 in row straight up
Packers covered 11 of 15 laying a TD or more
Green Bay defense much improved. Key factor is post-bye schematic change (moving Clay Mathews to an unusual hybrid ILB). If you look at the competitive portions of the last give GB games, defense has been outstanding.
Packers overall in December: 24-13 ATS
Key to stopping GB is strong pass rush
Packers in division: 37-16 ATS (including 15 of last 21 ATS)
(+9.5) JACKSONVILLE (3 - 12) at HOUSTON (8 - 7) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Houston motivated by viable playoff chance
Jags favored last week vs. Tennessee.
Before that, Jags underdogs in 42 STRAIGHT (last favored 9/30/2012)
HOUSTON QB
Keenum last week: 20/42 for 185 yards (0/1)
Keenum started 8 games for Houston last season
playing not much worse than average
producing a quarterback rating in 2013 better
than Joe Flacco and better than Eli Manning
He was with Houston’s new coaching staff during training camp and throughout the preseason
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Jags sacked 23 times last four games
Jags were improving, especially on defense … but injuries have hindered.
(+3.5) CINCINNATI (10 - 4 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (10 - 5) - 12/28/2014, 8:25 PM
PRIME TIME
Pitt strong in primetime
Bengals in primetime: 3-13 ATS (since 10/1/2007)
H/A
Pitt much stronger at home
Road team in Cincinnati games have covered only 11 of last 34
Pitt 6-0 ATS playing team with winning record the second half of the season (Last two seasons)
(-7) INDIANAPOLIS (10 - 5) at TENNESSEE (2 - 13) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
COLTS SUPER TRENDS
Colts dominate in division: Undefeated against the spread last 12 (11-0-1)
Off a loss: Colts 16-1 ATS next game
Colts against losing teams, 17-3 against the spread
TITANS SUPER BAD
Last 13 home games, Titans have covered only ONE
Tennessee bad ... 3-17 ATS last 20 games
Tennessee loss plus Tampa Bay win means #1 pick for Titans
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Much better at home over Luck’s career (reg season and playoffs)
Won 20-5 SU (17-7-1 ATS) at home; 13-12 SU on road (13-12 ATS)
Andrew Luck: 29-17-1 ATS during regular season in his career
Colts in December: 11-5-1 ATS
Colts gained a total of ONE YARD rushing last week vs. Dallas
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Ken Whisenhunt’s last 27 games as a head coach, he’s won only 3
Team giving less than 100% effort trumps any other handicapping factor in the NFL. Reports from Tennessee. Has team already given up on their rookie coach?
Tennessee has eight losses by 14 points or more this season
Home team in Titans games has covered only 10 of last 31
(+10) CLEVELAND (7 – 8) at BALTIMORE (9 – 6) – 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
STRUGGLING BROWNS OFFENSE
Browns have only 3 offensive TDs their last 4 games
Browns on a 11 INT and 1 TD pass streak
Last week, Browns gained only 8 first downs.
RAVENS BOUNCE BACK
Ravens off loss: 25-6 the next game (straight-up)
If lost game by TD or more: 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS
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Road team has covered only 11 of last 32 Ravens games
Ravens secondary extremely thin (due to injury)
Last 58 home games, Baltimore has won 47
Flacco 12-1 SU vs. Browns in career (8-4-1 ATS)
(+4.5) BUFFALO (8 - 7) at NEW ENGLAND (12 - 3) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
POSITIVE PATS TRENDS
Pats at home when NOT laying double digits: 16-3 ATS
Last week of regular season: 12-2 ATS (in Belichick era)
Patriots 21-1 SU vs. Bills (14-7-1 ATS)
Buffalo’s season-long goal CRUSHED last week
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The Patriots have won seven games this season by at least 22 points
Road team in New England games: covered only 9 of last 33 games
Patriots +90 turnovers last 79 regular season games
Wiseguys like to fade popular teams
but that hasn’t worked against New England
If you had bet $1000 AGAINST the Pats & Bellichick every game since Brady’s first start, you’d be DOWN $52,000!
New England has won 44 of 47 regular season home games (SU)
Pats in December when NOT laying a TD or more: 22-9 ATS (Belichick era)
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Orton’s last 42 starts: 13-29 straight-up
After losing on the road: Bills 24-6 ATS the next game
(+6) NY JETS (3 - 12) at MIAMI (8 - 7) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
MOTIVATION
Whatever negatives he has, Rex Ryan IS a motivator (key with a team out of playoffs late in season)
Miami must deal with late-season disappointment
Miami has given up 888 rushing yards their last five games
MIAMI AT HOME
Dolphins, as a home favorite: 12-38 ATS (back to 2003)
Dolphins, as a home favorite of 6 or more points: 1-13 ATS
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Geno Smith career: 22 TDs; 41 turnovers
14 of last 18 Jets losses by a TD or more (3 of last 4 by less than TD)
6 of 7 Miami’s wins this season have been by 13 points or more
Road team in Miami games 64-45 ATS
Miami has played 10 of 15 games vs. teams currently with a winning record
(+3.5) CAROLINA (6 - 8 - 1) at ATLANTA (6 - 9) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
HOW BAD IS ATLANTA?
Falcons: 3-1 SU vs. Tampa Bay. 6-19 SU vs. every other team (since 9/22/2013)
CAROLINA UP TREND
Carolina has outgained opponents its last 5 games
Panthers had been outgained their prior 9 games.
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Falcons outscored 125 to 74 in 4th quarter (last thirteen games)
Coach Smith as a favorite: 37-26 ATS in his coaching career
Panthers in December: 23-13 ATS
(+6) CHICAGO (5 - 10) at MINNESOTA (6 - 9) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
CHICAGO EVEN WORSE LATELY
Trestman era: Bears have covered only 10 of last 31 games ATS
Chicago in last nine games: outscored 173-49 in First Half
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Vikings in December: 11-1 ATS
Vikings in last eleven weeks have yielded 40 sacks (4 last week)
(+1 ... +4 before Smith OUT) SAN DIEGO (9 - 6) at KANSAS CITY (8 - 7) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
OLD-SCHOOL FOOTBALL
Chiefs have not allowed a 300-yard passer this season
KC Wide Receivers have ZERO touchdown catches this season!
KC as division favorites: 3-14 ATS
FAMILIAR IS BAD
The first time San Diego plays a team,
Mike McCoy has been able to hide the team’s limitations with elite coaching, but second matchups (even more for so for Division matchups) have been a problem
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Last eight games, QB Rivers has 16 TDs and 14 INTs
SD 14-6 ATS as a regular season underdog
December or later: San Diego, December and later: 38-13 SU (31-20 ATS)
Alex Smith last 57 games as a starter: 39-17-1 SU
Road team in KC games: 13-7 ATS
Chiefs as home favorite: 9-20 ATS
(+3) PHILADELPHIA (9 - 6) at NY GIANTS (6 - 9) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
First game in 2 seasons Eagles not in playoff hunt
TOUGH DIVISION SERIES
Giants vs Eagles:And like many tough division matchups this has been an UNDERDOG series with the dog covering 13 of 17 games
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Word from guys who watch film is Giants are actually improving on offense as they become even more familiar with this season’s new scheme.
Giants LBs and CBs are especially small – good to cover receivers, but problematic against power offenses
Giants defense have 24 sacks in the last four games
In Giants 9 losses this season, 6 have been by double digits
At home: Giants only 2 of 15 winning seasons ATS
(-5.5) DALLAS (11 - 4) at WASHINGTON (4 - 11) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
Redskins: 15-4 ATS vs. Cowboys
DALLAS ON ROAD
Dallas 7-0 SU on road (every other team has lost at least 2 road games)
As a road favorite, Dallas has covered only 6 of last 19
DALLAS MOTIVATION?
Need both Seattle and Arizona to lose for this game to matter
When Dallas is favored after winning the last game
(giving them another reason to lose focus)
the Cowboys are 4-17 against the spread
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DeMarco Murray health?
Murray has rushed for 100 yards or more 11 of 15 games this season
The underdog in Dallas games has covered 70% of the time (55-24 ATS since 2010)
Late in the season is not the time to back the Cowboys.
Since 2005, Dallas has covered only 35% of games in December (14-26-1) (3-0 ATS this season)
Cowboys, playing within the division: 22-35 ATS
Washington: 4-19 SU last 23 games
Washington as underdog: 7-16 ATS
RG3 sacked 9 times the last two week
(-4) NEW ORLEANS (6 - 9) at TAMPA BAY (2 - 13) - 12/28/2014, 1:00 PM
H/A
Road team in Saints games (coached by Sean Payton)
have covered 8 STRAIGHT
Prior 44 games: road team had covered only 6 times
Tampa As a home underdog: 6-23 against the spread
TANKING?
Last week, only 109 yards of offense for Tampa
Tampa gets the #1 picks with a loss
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Saints as road favorites: 2-8 ATS (covered last two games)
Coach Payton off a loss: 22-9 ATS
Tampa in December: 11-27-1 ATS (last 8 seasons)
Tampa at home: 14-36 ATS at home
(+12.5) ST LOUIS (6 - 9) at SEATTLE (11 - 4) - 12/28/2014, 4:25 PM
BEST HOME FIELD IN LEAGUE
Seattle (starting in 2005): 69% ATS at home (57-26-2)
On road during same period: 42% (36-49-1)
If simply play on at home, against on road: 106-62-3 (63% winners)
Seattle when laying over TD at home: 4-9 ATS streak
GREAT DOG COACH
Jeff Fischer strong as underdog throughout his career
winning 59% of the time against the Vegas number when getting points [95-66 ATS]
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Prior 4 straight games Rams favored
Prior 59 games, favored only 9 times
Rams becoming more comfortable with Gregg Williams defensive scheme:
First five games of season, Rams had 1 sack.
Next 10 games: 36 sacks
During Russell Wilson era at home: 18-7 Against The Spread [23-2 SU]
Last four Seattle opponents: Arizona, SF, Philly, SF, Arizona
Seattle: 32-14-1 ATS overall last 47 games
Seattle in December: 14-2-1 ATS (last four seasons)
(+6) ARIZONA (11 - 4) at SAN FRANCISCO (7 - 8) - 12/28/2014, 4:25 PM
LAST GAME FOR HARBAUGH?
After San Fran loss as favorite,
lost next game against the spread only 4 of 22 times
ARIZONA QB
Palmer 3 points better than Stanton
Stanton 3 points better than Lindley
Lindley 2 points better than Thomas
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LB Chris Borland OUT … had led 49ers in tackles last 6 straight games
49ers have lost only 13 of last 31 games ATS
SF with Harbaugh: 39-27-5 ATS overall
Kaepernick has been sacked 38 times over the last 9 games
49ers have scored 33 points in the 4th quarter this entire season (worst in the NFL)
49ers have not won by a TD or more since Week 6
SF: 12-4-1 ATS vs. teams with a win percentage better than .700!
San Fran has covered 9 of 12 vs. Arizona
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Cards on road 44-57-4 ATS (since 2002)
Arizona is 18-6 SU last 24
Losing only 6 times against the spread
Arizona has allowed a hundred yard rusher only TWO TIMES in past 25 games
Cards DC Todd Bowles receiving positive notices from Wiseguys
Prior to last week:
Arizona has outscored opponents 102 to 43 in 4th quarter this season
Seattle outscored Arizona 21-0 in 4Q last week
Arizona with 26 sacks over their last seven games (after only 8 the first eight games of season)
(+14) OAKLAND (3 - 12) at DENVER (11 - 4) - 12/28/2014, 4:25 PM
44th game out of last 46 that Denver has been favored
DENVER DOMINATES WEAK
Since the start of last season,
Denver has won 26 games …
24 of the 26 by a Touchdown or MORE
Denver as a favorite (with Manning): 28-17 ATS
SLOWER DENVER GAMES?
Denver with 167 rushing attempts last five games
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Peyton Manning with Denver vs. Oakland: 5-0 SU and ATS
Denver with Manning: vs. teams with losing record: 15-6 ATS
Denver 30-43 ATS at home since 2006 (16-11 ATS in Manning era)
Peyton Manning off loss as favorite: 17-22 ATS (in his entire career)
Denver in December: 10-3 ATS (in Manning era)
25 offensive touchdowns from Oakland this year … 7 of them garbage TDs (less than 2 minutes trailing by double digits)
Raiders 19-7 ATS as road underdogs against division opponent