I like the over in this one along with 80% of bettors. The total has fallen 1.5 points since the opener which is scaring me, but I think there's value in over 47.5. 3.02% of NFL games fall on 48, so if we assume 49 is the true line, this is worth betting.
In week 4, the Packers ran 47 plays in 23:08 minutes (1 play/ 29.5 seconds), and the Vikings ran 64 plays in 27:08 (1 play/ 25.4 seconds); each team scored over 35 despite having the ball less time than their opponent. The Vikings were one of the slower paced football teams last year at 63 plays-per-game, but it appears that they are adopting a faster pace with Bridgewater at QB. The Packers were slower than usual last week at 29 seconds per play, but they had a lead and were trying to burn clock in the 2nd half. They should revert to their 1 play per 26 seconds tempo against the Vikings.
Last night's KC/NE game was a sure under up until halfway through the third quarter. There was a long TD pass, a couple of turnovers, a couple of penalties, and the score shoots up 24 points. It can happen in any game and seems to happen more often in the prime time games. I don't think I would bet an under in a BAL/PIT game this year if it's on MNF. It's a square play, but the public has been winning this year. I'm going with over 47.5, 1% which is $110/$100 for me.