New England Patriots Over 10.5 -160/11- 110
- The Patriots go over their Season Win Total every year. They are like the San Antonio Spurs of the NFL. Every year I hear "regress" and by the end of the season they have 12-14 wins. Last year the Pats dealt with injuries to key players Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo, and Rob Gronkowski. Plus, in the off season they lost Wes Welker and Aaron Hernandez went away. Welker's replacement, Danny Amendola, could not stay healthy and made no measurable impact. Despite all this, the Pats went 12-4.
- This year, N.E signed Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner. They have not had a corner of Revis' caliber for 8 years, since Ty Law. In2013 , corners Alphonso Dennard and Logan Ryan were asked to be the 2nd and 3rd corner for much of the season. This year, they will be the 3rd and 4th. It is a deeper, better secondary. Revis is still playing for a contract and is a full two seasons removed from ACL surgery.
- The Pats also made attempts to improve their pass rush by drafting D-Lineman Dominique Easly and signing veteran D.E Will Smith. They will be getting back Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly on the interior defensive line after they both missed the 2nd half of 2013 with injuries. Linebacker Jamie Collins came on late last season as a starter, look for him to play a much bigger role this season.
- Drafting Q.B Jimmy Garaoppolo in the 2nd round got a lot of hype, but the Patriots made key picks in later rounds by selecting 3 offensive lineman, Center Bryan Stork, Tackle Cameron Fleming, and Guard Jon Halapio. Center and Right Guard have been a weak spot for N.E, but this year there is good competition on the offensive line. Right Guard Dan Connolly is also in a contract year.
- Wide Receiver was a weak spot last year. This year, Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins are in their 2nd year, Julian Edelman was brought back, Brandon Lafell was signed for depth, and Danny Amendola is trying to go 2 games without getting hurt lol. This is not going to be the best receiver group in the league, but they have nowhere to go but up after last season.
- The AFC East is still fairly weak. N.E is a near guarantee to win a minimum of 6 home games, probably more. This team simply wins games and they have improved from a season where they went 12-4. Take the Over.
Carolina Panthers Under 8
Was +120, now down to +110 OR U 8.5 -150
- Cam Newton is coming off of ankle surgery in the off season and just the other day said that he is still trying to get over the pain. Don't like QB's the year after an injury especially a leg injury for a running quarterback, just like RG3 last year. The Panthers were 11th in rushing last year, but if you take away Cam's rushing totals, they gained just 1,441 yards which would have made them 26th in the league.
In 2009, Tom Brady was in his prime, but he still had a down year after hurting his knee in 2008.. What makes Cam's injury worse is that the Panthers have new receivers in Tiquan Underwood, Jericho Cotchery, and Dominic Hixon. Due to the injury, Newton has not had time to get on the same page with these guys in the off season. If these guys were All Pro's, it might be an easier transition, but these are #3 receivers.
- Really don't like the fact that 3 veteran offensive lineman, Jordan Gross, Geoff Hangartner, Travelle Wharton, all retired and who their 5 lineman will be is still a question mark.
- Up until last year Ron Rivera was just 2-12 in games decided by 7 points or less. Obviously that changed last season, but I don't think 1 year makes Ron Rivera a drastically better coach.
- The Panthers had a +14 turnover differential in 2013, tied for 3rd best in the NFL. There is usually a regress for teams at the top and bottom of turnover differential.
- Last year, the Panthers played a lot of teams that had a bad 2013: Division foes Tampa Bay and Atlanta twice each, St, Louis, and Minnesota. This year, Tampa and Atlanta figure to be better, (can't be much worse) and their schedule in general is much tougher: From week 2 through week 11 they play Detroit, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Chicago, Cincy, Green Bay, Seattle, New Orleans, Philly, Atlanta. The lowest season win total for any of those teams is 8. That is a significantly tougher schedule.
- This year they will not be creeping up on anyone. Teams will be fully ready to go when facing the Division winners, especially Tampa Bay in week 1 who have double revenge from last year.
- The defense looks like it will still be good, but defense can't win games on its own. I doubt it will be dominant enough to overcome everything working against them.
- When I was watching them lose at home to 49ers in last years playoffs, they did not strike me as a team that was going to be a perennial winner. Its a league of parity. Teams follow winning seasons with losing seasons every year and I think the Panthers are the best candidate to go back under .500