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Scotty's Monday WCC Semi's in Las Vegas

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Scotty's Monday WCC Semi's in Las Vegas
coddfish
Joined: 11/05/2013
Posts: 1050
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Top 500 Contributor

My bet just showed up...

Basketball - 520 Brigham Young -5 -110 for Game

BOL Handicappers ! (and especially Scotty for all his great work !)

Scottydog
Joined: 11/12/2011
Posts: 5453
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Lines are moving this morning.

Gonzaga is pushing -7, 131.5 OU and BYU dropped to -4.5 shortly after opening and is now -5.5, 154 OU. This BYU line is interesting as it looks like the majority of bets (55% to 45%) are coming in on San Francisco, but the line is going up on BYU. Mormon money? Sharp money? Who knows, but I'm sure both games get heavily bet throughout the day as they are the primetime ESPN games.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CFB7763455.00758.00
NFL7165652.21-137.00
lrcredneck85
Joined: 12/05/2012
Posts: 6011
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I got zaga future bet to win the conference tourney at -103, probably the best value youll find on them from here out.  but I will also take the -6 in the game tonight as well. GL and as always thanks for all that west coast insight scotty

With summer in full swing, the prospect of keeping updated records at this point is mute.  Apologies, I just don't have time

jkrussell75
Joined: 09/06/2013
Posts: 866
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Zags now up to -8, still a good play??

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB1622042.11-499.00
Bruno Bets
Joined: 11/08/2011
Posts: 36221
Rank NA
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8.......better double-check that. I'd grab the +8 in a heartbeat....

Sorry, buddy......I was working on the Cougars' game....my bad....still, I am seeing -6.5 on the Zags at The Greek....

pauliemitch
Joined: 10/24/2010
Posts: 1098
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I watched BYU get off to a huge lead over the weekend again LMM only to blow the cover. It will be tough to play a wide open game against the Dons. The dons are hitting there stride, They beat LMM, and Pepperdine on the road. They will once again drop all 4 men back to try and stop the fast break. They do a great job on defense. I also believe that beating a team 3 straight in a  season is tough. Cole Dickerson provides a huge mismatch in my opinion. He can flat out score. Tough line at 5 1/2.

Bruno Bets
Joined: 11/08/2011
Posts: 36221
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Agree....BYU won by only 5 at home with a huge home-court advantage. Expect the Dons take it to the wire again. Good luck, folks. Enjoy the action!

Scottydog
Joined: 11/12/2011
Posts: 5453
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Here's an interesting take on the double revenge angle from Dave Cokin. You can read the whole post on his blog:

http://smokincokin.com

Dave’s Free Play, Monday 3/10/14

If you want to amuse yourself over the next several days, try to keep count of the number of times your hear or read how tough it is for one team to beat another three times in the same season. As is often the case, this is an observation made minus any factual data. It sounds good in theory, but in actuality it’s just not a true statement.

The numbers thus far this season are insane. Favorites in conference tournaments looking to win a third straight meeting with its opponent aren’t just getting victories, they’re making it look easy. The chalk in these matchups is now an astounding 32-10 against the spread through Sunday’s action. That’s not a percentage that figures to hold up, as there almost has to be some regression. But it’s not as fluky as you might think.

My observation is that the team with the two regular season wins holds a distinct advantage if they’re favored to do so again in the league tournament. Yes, it’s major revenge for the underdog. But from a mental standpoint, the team that already has the two wins under its belt knows it can beat this opponent. The underdog might only hope they can win. There’s a major difference there from a psychological standpoint, and the results are bearing that out.

Personally, I think the double revenge spots you might want to consider more are with favorites that lost the initial two meetings. Now we’re getting what is likely the stronger team, and the chances of them not being seriously revved up to avenge what previously took place are remote. The point is also key here, and that is, that it is indeed tough for one team to beat another three straight times in one season…but only if the apparent lesser team was the winner in those first two games.

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CFB7763455.00758.00
NFL7165652.21-137.00
bamaguy
Joined: 01/07/2014
Posts: 728
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GOOD LUCK SCOTTY  

RutgerRot214
Joined: 04/23/2011
Posts: 5902
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Great breakdown all!  I checked out both teams "stats".  I haven't watched either of them play.  No play for me (yet)......I missed out on any "sharp" pointspread for favorites.  I'll be backing the dogs or no one.  Most likely just watching.  Good Luck!

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
MLB1116040.74-353.00
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