I've already posted this is Lloyd's math thread, but in case he does not have time to respond, I wanted to open it up to community input. Thanks.
If Kentucky wins outright, my husband wins the pool we are in. First place is somewhere between $3,000 and $3,500. I know that is a wide range, but I'm trying to get a more accurate figure. Obviously, you must hedge with Kansas +6 here, and hope for the always elusive middle, but the question is, what does the math say the right amount is for the hedge bet?
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725 on kans ml would guarantee your hubby roughly bout 2000 or tad more! hope this helps!
There are 2 ways to hedge. First off it's 6.5 now and you can buy up to 7.
1) Bet Kansas + 7 and hope to win both ways
2) Bet Kansas ML and get + 260
I would do $1,000 Kansas ML and $1,000 Kansas + 7
I truly hadn't thought about the Kansas ML. I'm seeing +260. I think $2000 might be too much equity to give away in the pool if Kentucky blows them out. Maybe $500 on Kansas ML and $500 on Kansas +the points? That would yield $2500 if Kentucky blows them out, $1800 if Kansas wins outright and $3,500 if Kansas covers the 6, but loses?
Compare that to $1000 on Kansas +7, which pays $2,500 if Kentucky blows them out, $1,000 if Kansas wins outright and $4,500 if Kentucky wins by 1-6.
I still think Kansas +7 for $1000 might be better, as the only way the first scenario pays out more is if Kansas wins outright, which I think is unlikely. However, at least you are guaranteed $1800 in the first scenario.
I think I like taking advantage of the possible middle better, but am by no means sure that this is the appropriate way to go, which is why I'm asking.
I'm in the same boat I win between $10,500 and $53,300 if I pick the right team vs. spread today. Trying to figure out who to take and how to hedge. arggggh!!!!!
depends what your average wager is. only hedge if the money is worth hedging. but if you can get +6 or better and considering it is a pool, hedge on Kansas.
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Rather than hedging with Kansas +6 or more, why not play Kansas on the money line as at least part of your hedge. It will be a lot easier to compute the comfort level of where you want to be in terms of staying long for the game. Not that + the points is a bad hedge, this is simply something else to consider.
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Don't forget, you also have the opportunity to bet on Kansas in the live in-game wagering and 2nd half. Something to consider.
The options being considered now are:
Kansas +6.5 for 1000 or Kansas ML for 800. The first obviously guarantees you win at least 1000. The second guarantees 2080. The first has the added bonus of the juicy middle which would yield 4500.
If all KY has to do is win, I wouldn't hedge at all. Don't give away the equity. Imo.
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