Analysis: This is the best line now. It could and may well go up later once the public gets involved. I know I've been burned by "unders" and was really burned by UCF/Colorado last week, although with the late FT's it looked worse than it was. That's (losing a few unders) not a reason to reinvent the wheel, or flip things because that's exactly what losing bettors do. I will go with the handicapping which says UNDER. First things first in that UCF still has a great defense and plays REALLY slow. The get to the line some, but they are a 65% FT shooting team. They just don't have a great offense, and still turn the ball over way too much for me to take an over, simply because if they DO turn it over, Illinois isn't a team that's going to run. Illinois has been playing great defense, all season, but much more so lately. They held two running and shooting teams (Valpo and Boise State) to 57 and 56 points, respectfully. UCF plays at about half the speed of those two and has about a third of the offensive potential. Illinois' defense is ranked 36th in efficiency in the nation, and that's a Big Ten schedule. Illinois plays several teams in the Big Ten that play slow and are bigger (like UCF) such as Wisconsin, Michigan State, Northwestern, and even Michigan. So, they ought to have to make very few adjustments to keep UCF off the board. Illinois is kind of a poor mans' Uconn, who UCF held to 66 points or less in both meetings. In fact, since February 1st they've played exactly 12 games, only 3 of which have gone over this number. The KenPom projection here is 123 points, so the "rule change" adjustments have already been factored in - and honestly, I don't think it'll matter. They should start slow, too, with the feeling out process, since the winner advances to Madison Square Garden. If we were winning everything in sight every day like we were, I'd bet this even bigger. More on the other games later, probably. I don't like Bakersfield and I'm sure many of you do at the +6.5 maybe, but that's yet another case like this 'Under" in that we want to be hopping on and off the trains at the right time(s) - so that one requires more thought. I may use UTA in a ML parlay - the haven't lost a home game all season, and only lost two last season. Maybe a 1* on them on the ML and 2* on Bakersfield wouldn't be the dumbest thing, either. We'll see.
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