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Dave's CBB Thursday

CBB
Thread Starter Dave's CBB Thursday
Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
Posts: 17162
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A nice free winner with Pittsburgh on Wednesday, a game even I had written off at one point. But, the 2H look-ahead-letdown-rest thing helped us out. Tulane helped us out. Butler is probably not going to help us out unless Creighton pulls a "L'ville" - we've got a 3* loaded for Thursday but unsure as to how or if to market it. We'll see what happens.

Notre Dame/Miami: The 'Canes might be in regression. Their only good win was over NC State, and how good was that after watching what UNC did to the Pack. If this were Notre Dame's first road game, I'd be hesitant, but they beat Pittsburgh on the road, and the impressive thing was that it was in overtime. That's experience and composure, which is tough to bet against. Add that to the fact that Miami beat them twice last season, and I do like Notre Dame here.

UCLA/Colorado: I almost always try to find ways to back the Buffs at home in the altitude, especially against running teams which will exacerbate that.  Great value here since they've lost three straight, albeit all road games and two of the three against elite teams, Arizona and Utah. They beat Xavier here at home so there's no reason to think they can't hang withthe Bruins. Rather than go into what strengths and weaknesses there are - I'll say that the Bruins have a very thin bench, so if nothing else this is potentially a great 2H bet if the Bruins are up or it's close at the half.

SMU/Cincinnati: It seems rather odd to be looking at SMU +6 and not taking it - clearly there's a reason(s) for that. It's more than Larry Brown. If there's a reason for it, I don't know what it is. What I do know is that I simply can't take Cincinnati and their 64% FT shooting and worry about covering in the last minute, barring a blowout. SMU is quite capable of making three's - although it's not their typical MO - so I'm taking the under and the Mustangs, which is a split at worst. Two very slow paced teams that both play great defense. 

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Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind. 

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Scottydog
Joined: 11/12/2011
Posts: 7617
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Good luck Dave. I'm on UCLA so I guess great minds don't always agree. I think the loss to Oregon put an urgency in this Bruin squad. Should be an interesting game.

Special K
Joined: 06/21/2014
Posts: 3241
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Liking the Irish as well and love your angle on the SMU game. Always enjoy reading your insights!

SportWinsLossesTiesWin %$ Won
CBB153144451.52-470.00
CFB2318256.10315.00
MLB409323755.875442.00
NBA1214046.15-327.00
Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
Posts: 17162
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Top 50 Contributor

Scottydog

Good luck Dave. I'm on UCLA so I guess great minds don't always agree. I think the loss to Oregon put an urgency in this Bruin squad. Should be an interesting game.

I can understand the case for UCLA clearly. I can never miss a chance to take a decent team at home with a couple of possessions. 

Dave's Home Page w/Marble Count and Daily Message

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From Deadspin:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind. 

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
Posts: 17162
All Pro
Top 50 Contributor

Special K

Liking the Irish as well and love your angle on the SMU game. Always enjoy reading your insights!

Too many omissions for me on Wednesday. SMU is one of those teams that I rarely get right, so......

Dave's Home Page w/Marble Count and Daily Message

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From Deadspin:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind. 

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

Scanaz
Joined: 12/26/2007
Posts: 215
Jr. College
Not Ranked

Dave,

Cincinnati giving this many points is very odd, couldn't believe it when I saw it. Really looking hard at them considering the line seems way too high may have to take them. Want your feedback on a hand I circled right away. Portland catching double digit points @ home vs the gaels, they are unbeaten, second road game and they have Gonzaga on deck. Portland coming off a blow out loss. Do you have any thought?

Chrisgraz33
Joined: 10/14/2014
Posts: 205
Jr. College
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Best of luck Dave, you know I'll be on board somehow. Best insight in the business.

Dave Essler
Joined: 11/01/2009
Posts: 17162
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Scanaz

Dave,

Cincinnati giving this many points is very odd, couldn't believe it when I saw it. Really looking hard at them considering the line seems way too high may have to take them. Want your feedback on a hand I circled right away. Portland catching double digit points @ home vs the gaels, they are unbeaten, second road game and they have Gonzaga on deck. Portland coming off a blow out loss. Do you have any thought?

Portland or nothing IMO. They played them tough (two point game) here last year. Once could make the argument that BECAUSE of that St. Mary's doesn't take them lightly. I actually see this game as tow halves, not unlike Pitt/L'ville last night. I might take Portland 1H, and clearly 2H if they're down a fair bit, and you're spot on IMO - Gonzaga next, so perhaps a letdown. I like the over a bit since neither team turns the ball over, nor tends to create them, and they're both good from the stripe. The caveat there though is that that's ScotyDog's area of expertise more than mine (that Conference).

Dave's Home Page w/Marble Count and Daily Message

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From Deadspin:

Some forum posters have broken into the industry and have achieved moderate success while carrying themselves with professionalism and integrity. Dave Essler, of the pick-selling site Pregame, immediately comes to mind. 

"I am a Pregame.com Director of the Boards!"

russemar
Joined: 01/30/2011
Posts: 8244
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Good luck tonight Dave!!!!

2013 CFB  21-17-1   ( +9.70 units)

2012  CFB  37-38 (+3.10 units)

2013  NFL   15-11  (+ 8.70 units)

2013-2014  CBB  151-125-7 (+23.40 units)

2014 CFB  38-20-2 (+50.30 units) 

2014 NFL  3-2  ( +2.60 units)

2014-2015  CBB  83-86-7 (+ 4.80 units)

2014-2015  NBA  3-1 (+1.70 units)

2015 CFB  13-20-2  (-16.20 units)

2015-2016 CBB  26-32-1 (- 10.80 units)

2016-2017 CFB  15-12 (+6.9 units )

2017 CBB   112-94-4  (+13.80 units)

sleepyj
Joined: 11/01/2012
Posts: 32522
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BOL tonight Dave

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