Tough night for me - several could have gone the other way for various reasons but they did not, so there's no reason to look in the rear view mirror. The fine line between winning and losing reared it's head factoring in a late scratch, a few missed FT's, and of course a late scratch in Stanford, however:
Dayton/URI: Always hard to fade the Flyers at home, but you're always going to pay a premium as well. Both teams come in playing well, and it's been my experience that if I do fad Dayton it's usually a 1H bet. URI beat the Flyers in Dayton last year, something they surely remember. I do give a fair amount of weight to the previous years' games. If URI has an edge anywhere it's on the glass. Early money backing Dayton and the under. At +4 I'd take a URI chance, but do like the 1H better. If this IS a close game, I worry about the fouling down the stretch if I were to take the under. Dayton should push the pace.
Valpo/Oakland: These teams are nearly mirror images of each other, on paper. If they were to play "as expected" then one would have to conclude it's the motivational edge and the execution that'll matter. Neither team has a bad loss and both teams have a "gimme" game on Sunday. Oakland has been a little better at protecting the ball, Valpo has the length and most experience, but not enough of it to tip the scale. Early money took Oakland at +4 and I can't say I disagree, but what's interesting is that total opening and still sitting at 147. I expected higher.
Iona/Monmouth: Monmouth was a lot of peoples' cash cow until they lost at home to Rider and then at St. Peters last weekend. I suspect they'll still be the public side here, given that Iona has lost three of four. They key there is that perhaps they suffered from playing a weak non-conference schedule, something that can be exploited this time of year. Iona beat Monmouth twice last season, once here in Monmouth and once in the MAAC Finals, so motivation edge to the home team. I'd have to take Monmouth at home with more experience and a deeper bench.
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Thanks as always for the write ups Dave. Was leaning toward Monmouth and the over in Oakland/Valpo game and now going with both. BOL