Game – Wisky vs Duke at Banker’s Life Fieldhouse in Indy, game starts approx. 9:15 eastern
Current consensus lines – Game - Wisky -1 and 140 FH - Wisky -1/2 or pick, 65 or 65.5 Team totals – Game - Wisky 70.5, Duke 69.5, FH - Wisky 33, Duke 32.5
Game prop odds - largest lead of game for EITHER TEAM - Over/Under 12.5 POINTS – my two lines are 12.5/-125 Under and 12.5/-145 Under
Picks
Duke/FH – officially 2.5 units at +1/2 point but OK for 2 units at pick ‘em
FH Under – officially 2.5 units (1.5 units Wisc team total Under 33, and one unit FH Under 65.5), but if you don’t have FH team totals, play FH Under 65> 2 units
2H - may play Wisky and/or Over, if FH plays out as I expect, with 60-65 total FH points and Duke with a small (2 or 3 point) HT lead, and we are getting good adjusted line value on one or both 2H picks, based on HT score and 2H lines, and no game ending injury in FH to any key performer for one or both picks. Note that I will be out, watching game with a group of friends, so I will NOT be posting any 2H picks on the game
No game picks except for below 3 teasers
One game prop totals play – largest lead of game for EITHER TEAM - 12.5 POINTS – play UNDER for 2-4 units, depending on odds (e.g., 4 units at -125, 2 units at -145)
3 teasers for 6 total units – 2 side/total teasers, one ultimate hedge teaser (all 5 points at -110 odds & assume a teaser push does NOT result in a teaser loss)
Duke to +6 with Over 135 for 2 units (risk 2.2 units at -110 odds to win 2 units)
Wisc to +4 with Over 135 for 2 units (risk 2.2 units at -110 odds to win 2 units)
Duke teased to +6 with Wisc teased to +4 for 2 units (risk 2.2 units at -110 odds to win 2 units)
Brief discussion of game – Betting this game is a tough call, and I see it as a better viewing game than betting game, with both teams having numerous positives (not the least of which are their Hall of Fame coaches) and few negatives. I expect a well-coached, close, hard fought game, which is one reason why I like my game prop totals play on Under 12.5 (that largest lead of game for EITHER TEAM will NOT be > 12.5 points), as awell as including an “ultimate hedge” teaser on both teams as one of my plays. Since I don’t plan to release any full game plays (except for the 3 above teasers), I’m not going to waste a lot of time writing an interesting, detailed WU about the game, just because it’s for “all the marbles.”
But below is my Quick Summary of the “positives” for each team.
Positives for Wisconsin
Badgers are cool and they know how to close out games. The Badgers dealt with deficits against North Carolina, Arizona and Kentucky. But they always found a way to finish on top. Their second-half efforts have been breathtaking. With two good teams competing for the national championship, the game could get tight early. One run in the second half could change the game and seal the victory. And in that situation, Wisconsin will shine. That Badgers continue to prove that they know how to deliver in difficult moments. They've done it all season against elite teams. Whatever situation the Badgers face on Monday night, they won't panic. They'll just play their way out of it.
They faced a late deficit against Kentucky Sat nite, the result of a prolonged ‘dry spell” on offense” and two brutal judgment calls by the refs which went against them and cost them at least 5 points. But they weren't antsy or hesitant, and certainly did not panic. Dekker hit big shots, Gasser was clutch. Kaminsky and Koenig collected key free throws. Gasser, Kaminsky and Dekker are all veterans who've kept Wisconsin together in difficult moments. Duke will be led by three true freshmen – Jones and Winslow in addition to Okafor. The leadership of senior Quinn Cook has been a boost all season, but Duke's youngsters will be asked to make huge plays down the stretch of a national championship game. The "Unibrow" (Anthony Davis) and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist of Kentucky’s 2012 national championship team are the only true freshmen who've led a team to a national championship in the one-and-done era. It's not easy to do. That's a lot of pressure for that dangerous but young group of Dukies. And Wisconsin's vets won't be rattled by the moment. Their experience will be a factor.
Positives for Duke
But speaking of experience, Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski has been sporting one of his four national championship rings as a reminder to his players of what their ultimate goal has been all season. Being the winningest coach in Division I men’s college basketball goes a long way to having players believe in what you’re saying. If it’s a close game late and Duke is trailing, the Blue Devils won’t have a doubt in their mind that they can win because of Coach K and his experience in national championship games. He’s been there several times and won four, compared to ZERO title games for Wisky’s Bo Ryan.
For all the talk of what Duke center Jahlil Okafor needs to do to defend Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky, understand, Kaminsky has to figure out how to handle Okafor, too. And Badgers haven’t faced another center TY with Okafor’s skill (as talented as Kentucky Wildcats big man and semi-final foe Karl-Anthony Towns is, he is behind Okafor from an offensive standpoint.
ACC head to head vs Big Ten
During the ACC-Big Ten challenge in December, the Blue Devils handed the Badgers their first loss of the season, a wire to wire 80-70 upset win in in Madison, and Wisky’s only home loss TY in 16 games. Both teams have improved since then, but I find it hard to believe that Duke will duplicate their 65% shooting effot of that nite, including 7-12 treys, and one of their DD scorers that nite (Rasheed Sulaimon, who had 15 points on 5-8/2-3 shooting) is no longer with the team.
More significantly, the past five national championship match-ups between the ACC and Big Ten have ended with the ACC team cutting down the nets, including 3 since year 2000 - in 2009 North Carolina Tar Heels over Michigan State Spartans, in 2005 Tar Heels over Illinois, and in 2002 Maryland Terrapins over Indy.
Pick specific support for FH picks – will send later, well in advance of tip-off