Hey everyone, trying hard to get some quality analysis out to you all while at the same time maintain a high-standard of winning. That's have it at here. There is another game going Wednesday that I may post as well, time permitting. All the best.
Utah State +5.5 at Wyoming
Pick: Utah State +5.5
Utah State has come a long way since a so-so nonconference season, thanks mostly to an offense that has evolved from inconsistent to nearly unstoppable. League-leading Boise State and Utah State are the only teams in the 11-member Mountain West that rank among the top four in scoring, field-goal percentage and three-point shooting.
In their past five games, Utah State is averaging 78.6 points. They have made 44 of 96 3-pointers, or 45.8 percent. Overall, they haven't shot less than 47.2 percent from the field since Jan. 31. In the past 22 games, all five Utah State starters have scored 20 points or more at least once. Another, sixth-man Jojo McGlaston, scored 14 in only 27 minutes against Idaho State on Dec. 19.
Asked about Utah State’s improvement on offense, Utah State oach Stew Morrill said:
"Good players have gotten comfortable. We've got good offensive players and they've gotten comfortable in the system. They've freed up as we've went along… We don't always take the perfect shot, but … we've got a lot of guys who can shoot the basketball and a lot of guys who can pass the basketball. That helps you.”
With two games left in the regular season, Utah State is 18-10 overall and 11-5 in conference play, including 5-3 on the road and still mathematically alive in league championship race.
It's been a shockingly successful run for Utah State, a team picked to finish 10th in the conference's preseason poll and began the year with only one part-time starter returning.
"This season has turned out better than anything we expected, just because we had such a young team coming in — not just a young team, but a new team. Everybody was new to each other. No one knew what to expect because we hadn't played together. More than anything, it's exciting to see what happened,” said Utah State Senior Sean Harris.
Harris called the Aggies' late-season surge "… a lot of fun. It's been even more fun because of the kind of character these guys have. We go out and play hard every night. We play to win and we play to get better. Everybody plays for everyone else on the team."
“What makes them a little special in terms of coverage is, like Fresno [State] and Boise [State], they have four and many times five guys that can score the ball and go for 18 to 20 [points]…It’s hard to pick your poison when teams are that balanced and dangerous,” Wyoming Head Coach Larry Shyatt said.
This will be bad match-up for Wyoming in many ways. Utah State leads the Mountain West and is No. 14 in the nation in assist to turnover ratio with a ratio of 1.42. That works out quite well especially against the Wyoming, who ranks 236th in the country in defensive turnover % (18.2%).
Secondly, Utah State's starting guards have averaged 50 percent or better from behind the 3-point line over the last five games - Darius Perkins (.542), Chris Smith (.526), Julion Pearre (.500), not too bad, going against the nation’s 217th ranked 3PT% defense (35.0%).
Thirdly, Utah State’s zone defense; in Wyoming's loss at Utah State on Jan. 27 its worst offensive effort of the season, Wyoming scored just 44 points, shot 36 percent from the field and committed 14 turnovers, unable to find answers for the Aggies' smothering zone defense.
Wyoming, which has allowed more than 60 points in each of its last two losses, including 11 3-pointers at UNLV on Saturday, is going to have to do better job in order to keep up with Utah State.
“We’re going to have a couple hard-nosed practices between now and then, and just focus back on our identity," senior forward Larry Nance Jr. said. "That’s defense.”
While defense is their calling card (supposedly), Wyoming must find ways to score, in order to keep up with Utah State. In Wyoming’s last three games, they have averaged just 19.7 points in the first half, taking deficits into halftime each game.
In the six games since Nance first went down with mononucleosis, Wyoming has had to juggle lineups, strategies and styles of play. The result, even since Nance's return, has been a disjointed product.
Wyoming Head Coach Larry Shyatt went as far as to say:
“I don’t think we’re playing quite the same way, with quite the same bounce, since the virus hit…. I think that’s obvious…..I don’t want to nor will I talk about it or use it as an excuse. However, I think some of that is obvious.”
These teams are simply heading in opposite directions, and perhaps the market is not paying much attention to this.
In Utah State’s last 6 games, USU is 6-0 SU and 6-0 ATS, beating market expectations by 55.5 points, that’s 9.2 points per game.
Figure 1: Utah St. Last 6 Games
Utah St.: Last 6 Games | Season
|
Date
|
vs.
|
Score
|
Line
|
O/U
|
FG
|
Opp FG
|
Reb
|
02/28/15
|
@AFA
|
W 74-60
|
W 1.5
|
O 128.5
|
24/50
|
25/62
|
35-29
|
02/24/15
|
UNLV
|
W 83-65
|
W -4
|
O 132
|
31/57
|
26/64
|
33-33
|
02/21/15
|
FRES
|
W 85-79
|
W -5
|
O 127.5
|
29/54
|
28/57
|
27-25
|
02/18/15
|
@SJSU
|
W 76-54
|
W -13
|
O 122.5
|
27/50
|
19/56
|
32-28
|
02/10/15
|
NEV
|
W 75-62
|
W -8.5
|
O 124.5
|
25/42
|
23/56
|
17-29
|
02/07/15
|
@UNM
|
W 63-60
|
W 7.5
|
O 119.5
|
25/53
|
23/53
|
24-36
|
In contrast Wyoming is 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in their last six contests, falling to meet market expectations ironically by 55.5 points, 9.2 points per game.
Wyoming: Last 10 Games | Season
|
Date
|
vs.
|
Score
|
Line
|
O/U
|
FG
|
Opp FG
|
Reb
|
02/28/15
|
@UNLV
|
L 57-69
|
L 2
|
O 119
|
20/52
|
23/48
|
24-29
|
02/25/15
|
FRES
|
L 59-64
|
L -6.5
|
O 121.5
|
20/43
|
23/57
|
27-27
|
02/17/15
|
@NEV
|
W 64-58
|
W -1
|
O 120.5
|
22/49
|
20/57
|
24-39
|
02/14/15
|
SJSU
|
W 77-60
|
L -18.5
|
O 123.5
|
28/50
|
16/49
|
25-28
|
02/11/15
|
@SDSU
|
L 41-67
|
L 11.5
|
O 106.5
|
17/48
|
24/55
|
26-33
|
02/07/15
|
@AFA
|
L 50-73
|
L 1
|
O 115.5
|
17/49
|
28/49
|
24-31
|
Looking at the split stats over the last 5 games for each team, there is such as vast divergence between the two teams both on offense and defense. At +5 we are getting the better FT shooting team +14.1% margin; the better FG% team +9.6% and the better 3PT shooting team 15.5%. Defensively, we are quite even, but what sticks out is the 3PT defense, and right now Utah State is red hot on outside. At +5 we are see a number of 3/2 possessions add that to the better FT shooting and +5 is certainly within reach.
*Last 5 | In-Depth
|
Off
|
For
|
FG%
|
3P%
|
FT%
|
Reb
|
USU WYO
|
78.6 59.6
|
53.8 44.2
|
45.8 30.3
|
74.8 60.7
|
28.8 25.2
|
Def
|
Aga
|
FG%
|
3P%
|
FT%
|
Reb
|
USU WYO
|
64.0 63.6
|
41.0 39.8
|
32.4 45.1
|
62.0 75.6
|
28.8 31.2
|
When we delve into recent market trends, we see added support for Utah St. In addition to the aforementioned trends, Utah State is also 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 vs. Mountain West. Meanwhile, Wyoming is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. If you insert the long-term trends here we see an even more compelling reason to side with Utah State. Utah State is 17-9 ATS this season overall, including 8-4 ATS on the road. Meanwhile Wyoming is 7-16 ATS this overall, including 4-9 ATS at home.
Talk about an overvalued team. The marketplace is clearly enamored with this Wyoming squad.
Wednesday night is senior night in Laramie.
“It’s Senior Night next…..We’ve got five seniors. It’s going to be an emotional night. Hopefully attendance is good. If there’s any game to turn it around, that would be it.” Nance said.
Hopefully attendance is good??? Wow!!! The star of the team has doubts about Senior Night attendance. Nance probably should have doubts.
Many fans from around the state can't travel on a Wednesday to support the Wyoming. It is quite possible that Laramie, Cheyenne, and the students won't fill the Arena Auditorium tonight.
The market is clearly discounting Utah State’s performance on the court, team chemistry and coaching and quite simply overvaluing Wyoming’s home court, defense and the presence of Larry Nance Jr.
Give me Utah State +5.5