There's an adage about mid-season football, "Good teams get better, average teams get worse." Obviously with football teams the players get physically beat up and who can really blame a hobbled lineman on an 8th place team from easing off. His team's going nowhere, he's not going to the NFL, all he's got is what's left of his knees and hopefully a future college degree. It makes perfect sense to me. College hoops follows this same dynamic although there's a lot less injury issues in CBB, however it only takes losing one star or key element to screw up the machinery.
It appears, and I will likely be proved wrong by the basketball gods this week, that teams and conferences are rounding into some semblance of order. It doesn't mean that the 5th, 6th, 7th, and 8th place teams won't have a Roman Candle Revival*** and light up a late second-half backdoor cover, but for the most part, the cream is rising and the wannabe's are sinking to the bottom.
The only game I've bet on is Long Beach State -6.5 at Cal State Fullerton at 7:30pm PST. The Titans are 0-5 in conference play and they just don't have the coaching, the athletes and the motivation to make a concerted run towards mediocrity. However, they will give a big effort tonight as the in town rivalry is always heated. Fullerton has owned LB in baseball and LB has owned CSF in hoops. In most situations I might back off this game, but because it's Long Beach 4-1 at Fullerton 0-5, I know that Coach Monson of Long Beach will have his guys ready to go. The Titans are a bit crippled and this is a huge opportunity for the '9ers to lay a major beatdown.
Other games and opinions:
I expect Utah to cover at UCLA. BYU should wear down SF in the second half and cover. UCSB is not particularly good on the road and I believe this is UC Davis' year to win the Big West. They're laying 2.5 and I'm rooting for the Aggies. Hawaii at Northridge is a pass. St. Mary's -13.5 vs Loyola will likely be a blowout, and Sac St. -11.5 is hosting 1-6 Montana State and although I think Sac St is the right side, Montana State has put up some good road numbers so it's a pass for me.
That's it folks. Hope you win all your bets.
A
A
***Roman Candle Rivival, from the New England Journal of Men's Health. As a man ages, the amount of ejaculate decreases. Much like the firework called a Roman Candle, sparks shoot high in the sky for most of it's active life, but nearing the end the sparks diminish and eventually peter out. Fortunately, there's usually a few unexpected last minute blasts before the candle becomes a worthless toy. At this point it's best to throw it into the ocean.