shackfu99 said:
Both plays would be -EV. I wouldn't play the game with either scenario's in the thread
This is very true, neither would I.
Florida -115 or -105 or +105 to win the title is no gift. I was simply trying to put things in perspective on what this bet could be equated to. I don't think many people find value in Florida -300 vs UConn (including me).
If Florida -300 vs Uconn = no value
then
Florida -115 to win title = no value
I have noticed people betting high juice ML parlays all around and that has also frustrated me. I don't have a problem with high juice if you find value in the bet. If a -300 favorite wins 78% of the time, then go ahead and bet it. I don't have a problem with parlays either. As long as the plays within the parlay have value, then the parlay has value. I see people throwing -500 favorites into parlays and even -900 favorites into parlays to bring the juice down and bring "value" to another bet. If you wouldn't risk 100 to win 20 then you shouldn't be bringing it into a $100 parlay, because that is exactly what you did (risk 100 to win 20). If a -900 favorite isn't going to win 90% or more of the time, then leave it out. You are increasing the juice and reducing the value. Not the other way around. It probably won't bite you in the ass this time around, but it will over time.
But that's a little off topic and doesn't deal specifically with this thread.