#751 Siena at #752 Fresno State -8, 139 OU at 7pm PST
This will likely be my last or next to last posted pick until CBB starts next November since I don't post Big Dance, baseball, or football picks. I bet those sports and have actually been successful at them, but it's just not my thing to do write-ups for them. So I'll have some fun here tonight.
So, the Saints vs the Lions: Battle for the CBI Title (actually they're the Bulldogs)
It's not quite that symbolic, but for the sake of this post, I'll play off that angle. Given that Siena has an enrollment of 3,200 students and Fresno State has over 23,000, this is actually more of a David vs Goliath story. One thing I find interesting is Siena is a very small catholic college founded by the Franciscans in New York, and California, although not exactly founded by the Father Junipero Serra, the man who was responsible for building of 21 missions, we still have strong Franciscan ties. In fact, San Francisco takes its name from Mission San Francisco de Asís. What's this got to do with Fresno State? Nothing really other than Fresno is at the heart of the central valley where they grow and ferment more grapes that any other part of the country and there's rumors that some hearty early Franciscan monks loved their wine. Or maybe I'm thinking of the Benedictines. Either way, that leads to….
As I sip/slurp and eventually slug down a nice dry Bombay martini with a flotilla of my favorite green, pimento-filled, toothpick-speared condiments, I should have titled this post, "My Five Jigger Game of the Olive Gods."
I'm sure olives are grown in other parts of these sometimes United States, but I know for fact, some of the best olives are grown in the Central Valley of California. In fact, central California grows some pretty remarkable crops. And Fresno, an often overlooked community, is right in the hub of some of the best vegetables, fruits, and wine. In fact, Fresno is the fifth largest city in California covering more than 112,000 square miles which is bigger than some of the smaller states.
I've only been to Fresno a few times as it's on the way to Sequoia, Kings Canyon, and Yosemite National Parks. I don't have any particular affinity to the city, but being California born and raised you learn to appreciate certain cities for their contribution. I think that's one of the reasons I pay attention to some of the more obscure California basketball teams like CSU Bakersfield, Fresno State, UC Davis, Sacramento State, and even Cal Poly. These schools are out in the cultural sticks - it's not like everyone wears overalls, but these are California cities where agriculture is still king. Oddly enough, Silicon Valley has yet to produce an NCAA champion. So what if they got more billionaires per square mile? They still don't have game - at least not on the hardwood.
I'm sure there are hundreds, maybe thousands of areas in these United States, where unique occupational and cultural identities exists in a particular city or college. Personally, I love these cites and colleges that are the underdogs, constantly striving to bring down or at least match the big boys. But not so fast...
So what about the game?
I like Fresno State in game one and my reasons are pretty simple and straightforward. Both teams are heavy with sophomore and junior guards. The stats are fairly equal although FSU averages 73 ppg vs 69ppg, has a slightly better fg% and 3's%, they've hit 271 three's vs only 156 for Siena, and Siena turns the ball over 14+ per game vs only 10 for Fresno. Both teams finished 5th in their respective conferences but FSU has had a much tougher SOS at +4.35 which ranks 94th, and the Siena SOS is -0.5 which ranks 160th.
I really don't know anything about Siena. I only cap teams in the Big West, Mountain West, Pac 12, and West Coast Conferences so you know why I don't cap the Big Dance. But what I do know is the Mountain West and this is why I really like Fresno in this contest. Not much was expected from FSU this year. Some of their best players from last year transferred so this was a rebuilding year and it showed in Nov., Dec., and most of January. Then in late January they had a breakout game against UNLV and although they lost the game in OT, it set them on fire and brought the team together with a unified mission. They went 9-3 to finish conference play and have easily taken care of UTEP, Princeton, and Old Dominion in the CBI tournament. This team not only has the character to play together, they have the will to win and I see no reason they won't win Monday night. Princeton and ODU might have suffered from the late start time, 10pm EST, and the hurried travel, but Siena flew in Saturday and should be ready to go. But one note, Siena hasn't played a road game since March 8th and they are 4-6 in last 10 away games.
And for what it's worth, Siena has gone under in their last 8 games and FSU is 3-5 to the under in their last 8, so you may want to take a look at the under in this one too.
So there you have it. It's been a good year for me in college hoops hitting 55% of my picks and I hope to end with a winner.
And by the way, this is a best of 3 series and games 2 and 3 will be played at Siena, so it's not over quite yet.
BOL to all….
Sorry you had to read through my ramblings.
Gotta go, my jigger is calling.