I pumped up the volume starting Wednesday night and I got some concerned responses from some posters I respect. I guess my thinking is that I possibly have an edge on any game I study and that I should bet as many as possible in order to reduce variance. Honestly I couldn't tell you which one of Thursday's plays I like the best. I could be completely wrong though, maybe staying selective is the better way. I guess we will see how it goes.
THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 13th (May add more games)
RUTGERS +8.5 vs SMU
I think Rutgers is better than what we have seen from this season. They got beat by SMU less than a month ago but that was a bad spot for them. SMU is a good team but this line seems a little inflated. There's a lot of familiarity here between the head coaches who have also faced each other in the pros which makes me think this one will be closer than expected.
MISSOURI -5 vs Arkansas
I like Missouri who are back home and looking to break a 3 game losing streak. They won at Arkansas on January 28th so I don't think it's a bad match-up for them. I think we are getting a little value because they have lost 3 in a row, but those have been games against Kentucky at home and then Florida and Mississippi on the road.
GREEN BAY -1 at Youngstown St.
If this is a trap then I might as well be Wile E. Coyote. Green Bay is the better team and when these two played in January GB won 85-69 despite the fact they were 0-9 from three . Plus I'm not sure if Ryan Weber will play for Youngstown.
LOUISVILLE -14 at Temple
I can't believe I'm laying 14 on the road but I just don't like Temple. Their leading scorer, Dalton Pepper, is a West Virginia castoff that wasn't good enough to earn playing time while in Morgantown. Plus Louisville has had a lot of time off since their last game. I heard Alan Boston say on a podcast he has Louisville as his top power ranked team so that's probably influencing me as well.
BUTLER +8 vs Creighton
I was all set to take Creighton and write about how Butler just isn't the same without Brad Stevens but then I saw the price. This is too many points considering how close these teams are in terms of talent.
USC +3.5 vs Utah
It's taking time for USC to adjust to Enfield. It will click eventually. We are getting some value because of USC's 1-9 conference record. They have lost 4 in a row but 2 of those were in OT. They are desperate for a win and likely see Utah as a beatable opponent so we will see a monster effort from them.
39-38 Season to date, all picks entered into Pregame's tracking system.