NEVADA AT MOREHEAD ST.
The finals of the CBI tournament is a best out of three series with the first game being played at Morehead and the final two being played at Nevada. Both teams have won 3 games in this tournament but there is a big difference in those wins. Nevada won all three games at home while two of Morehead's wins were on the road. Only one other team in this whole tournament has won a road game and that was Vermont at Seattle (who is ranked #297 by KenPom). MSU won at #125 Siena who had a home record of 13-3 going into their game and at #140 Ohio who had a home record of 16-2 going into their game.
Morehead's home record going into this game is 13-2 while Nevada's away record is 5-9. Morehead is a physical team that likes to pressure all over the court. Morehead is the better offensive team while Nevada is the better defensive team. MSU has the edge in steals, t/o margin, and is the better rebounding team. I think the only way Nevada wins this game is if there is a huge disparity in free throw attempts. One thing Nevada is good at is getting to the line. Nevada shoots 73.6% from the line while Morehead shoots 70.6%. That's not a big difference but Morehead tends to commit a lot of fouls with their pressure defense. So far in this tournament Morehead has done a good job of drawing fouls as they have committed 68 fouls to their opponents 64. If the Eagles can keep the free throw attempts close I think they win this one going away. Nevada hasn't played a true away game since March 2 and I don't believe they'll enjoy this trip to Kentucky. I love this spot for the Eagles and I'm making this one of my highest limit plays.
7* #752 MOREHEAD ST. -3 -110