Kentucky/ND Preview & Pick
Notre Dame will be the hardest opponent Kentucky has faced all season. Don't forget this ND team beat UNC 2 times and Duke 2 out of 3 times. Kentucky beat UNC at home by 14 and beat LVille @ LVille by 8. ND beat LVille @ LVille by 12, beat UNC @ UNC by 1, and beat UNC on neutral by 8. I do not go by this as a predictor but am just trying to show that ND is very capable when they are making shots, which is much more often than not. Kentucky's defense is the best in the nation and ND is one of the top shooting teams in the nation. We all know Kentucky is capable of winning this game by 15-20 at their best, but, 11 is way too much points for a team that could even beat them if Kentucky is not shooting well. N Dame will spread them out and make Kentucky guard the perimeter, leading to a better chance for points than most any other teams would have vs Kentucky. I am not saying N Dame is going to win, just that they have an actual chance in my mind. Since the beginning, here are Kentucky's wins vs teams that are any-what close to being good:
11/18 - WIN - Kansas Neutral by 32 (Kansas 53 Tempo)
11/30 - WIN - Providence home by 20 (Prov 123 Tempo)
12/5 - WIN - Texas w/o Thomas home by 12 (Texas 301 Tempo)
12/13 - WIN - UNC home by 14 (UNC 17 Tempo)
12/20 - WIN - UCLA Neutral by 39 (UCLA 113 Tempo)
12/27 - WIN - @ LVille by 8 (LVille 164 Tempo)
1/6 - WIN - Miss home by 3 in OT (Miss 84 Tempo)
1/10 - WIN - @ Texas A&M in OT by 6 (A&M 205 Tempo)
1/20 - WIN - Vanderbilt home by 8 (Vandy 215 Tempo)
2/3, 3/3 - WIN - UGA home by 11, @ UGA by 8 (UGA 190 Tempo)
2/7, 3/7, 3/13 - WIN - @ Florida by 7, UF home by 17, UF Neutral by 15 (UF 277 Tempo)
2/10 - WIN - @ LSU by 2 (LSU 13 Tempo)
2/28, 3/15 - WIN - Arkansas home by 17, Arkansas Neutral by 15 (Hogs 14 Tempo)
3/21 - WIN - Cincinnati Neutral by 13 (Cincy 340 Tempo)
3/26 - WIN - West Virginia Neutral by 39 (WVU 31 Tempo)
Now, what you will notice is that wins vs Kansas/UCLA/WVU, while absurd, are not "as" ridiculous as they may seem considering all three were teams that have shown the ability to get spanked randomly. UTAH also beat UCLA badly by 32 points. UNC beat UCLA by 22. TEMPLE beat KANSAS by 25. TEXAS beat WVU by 27. OKLAHOMA beat WVU by 19 in one game. IOWA ST beat WVU by 20.
WVU relies on their press and if you can beat them there or just not let them score, they can get killed. UK did both.
Also, look at Kentucky vs fast tempo teams. This is clearly where they excel and with the exception of LSU (13 Tempo) and MISS (84 Tempo), their games with slower tempo teams were when they won by less.
TEXAS - 301 Tempo - W by 12
CINCY - 340 Tempo - W by 13
FLORIDA - 277 Tempo - W by 7, 17, & 15
UGA - 190 Tempo - W by 11 & 8
VANDY - 215 Tempo - W by 8
TEXAS A&M - 205 Tempo - W in OT by 6
LVILLE - 164 Tempo - W by 8
NOTRE DAME - 208 Tempo - ???
In the games vs LSU/MISS, MISS was able to shoot 49%, hit 9 3-PT & LSU has a lot of size that helped them + limited KENTUCKY to only 11 Free Throw attempts.
Notre Dame is #6 in the Nation in Opponent FT Attempted Per Game at only 13.9 and #6 in the Nation in Fouls per game with only 14.2 Personal Fouls Per Game. Also, 208th in Tempo.
Notre Dame +11