Belmont +1.5 vs. Eastern Kentucky
Pick: Eastern Kentucky -1.5
This should be a fun game to watch tonight in Nashville as the Ohio Valley Conference continues on. The story line for investment here is simple: Eastern Kentucky’s (EKU) ability to generate turnovers and the return of EKU G Corey Walden (he missed the second game vs. Belmont this season a 66-61 loss).
For three straight seasons the EKU defense has thrived on their opponents' turnovers. EKU leads the country in turnover margin (+7.6), recently moving past West Virginia (+7.5).
In 2012-13, Eastern Kentucky out-scored its opponents by 268 points off turnovers. Last season that margin grew to 287 points. This year EKU has out-scored is opponents off turnovers by 288 points. The team's turnover margin has gone from 199 two years ago to 219 fewer turnovers this season.
Belmont has been a turnover machine in the two games vs. EKU this season. In game 1, an 81-69 win for EKU, EKU was +10 in turnover margin (18 vs. 8), in game 2 a 66-61 win for Belmont, EKU was +8 (19 vs. 11).
As mentioned earlier, Corey Walden did not play in game two, he will be available this evening. Walden is the center-piece of what EKU does offensively and defensively so much so that he put up numbers worthy of OVC Player of the Year consideration.
He is the only player in the conference ranked in the top-10 in scoring (2nd), field goal percentage (7th), assists (7th) and steals (1st). He averaged 19 points, four rebounds, four assists and three steals per game while shooting 54 percent from the field and 82 percent from the free throw line. The Dayton Beach native ranks second in the nation in steals per game and 34th in scoring. Walden has tied the EKU career record with 221 steals, which is also tied for the eighth most in the history of the OVC. His 84 steals this season are the ninth most single season total in OVC history.
Coming back to the turnover margin, we must note that Belmont is 10th in the conference in offensive turnover % (20.2%) while EKU is 1st in the conference in defensive turnover (25.7%). EKU is also 3rd in the OVC in defensively efficiency.
Not only can this team play defense they can do some things offensively. Ranking 4th in the conference in offensive efficiency EKU has four players averaging at least 8.4 points, and they’re shooting 77.7 percent from the line and 35 percent from deep. The EKU will be going up against the conference 9th ranked defensive efficiency.
In both games this season, EKU has shot the ball better than Belmont in both games. In game 1 EKU shot 57% from the field and in game 2 (without Walden) EKU shot a respectable 44%. The reason for that, EKU offense has dominated Belmont in the paint. The reason: EKU ranks 2nd in the conference in offensively in 2PT% (58.2%), Belmont are 11h in conference in defensive 2PT% (52.8%).
Belmont played just last night vs. Eastern Illinois now despite the blowout score, 97-64, a number of Belmont’s starters played over 28 minutes.
|
REBOUNDS
|
|
PLAYER
|
MIN
|
FGM-A
|
3GM-A
|
FTM-A
|
OFF
|
DEF
|
TOT
|
A
|
PF
|
STL
|
TO
|
BLK
|
PTS
|
Reece Chamberlain
|
29:00
|
3-6
|
2-3
|
1-2
|
3
|
5
|
8
|
8
|
1
|
0
|
3
|
1
|
9
|
Craig Bradshaw
|
32:00
|
9-14
|
5-8
|
0-0
|
0
|
5
|
5
|
6
|
1
|
4
|
4
|
0
|
23
|
Taylor Barnette
|
28:00
|
2-5
|
1-3
|
0-0
|
2
|
4
|
6
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
5
|
Evan Bradds
|
22:00
|
7-10
|
0-0
|
0-0
|
2
|
2
|
4
|
1
|
3
|
0
|
2
|
0
|
14
|
Amanze Egekeze
|
28:00
|
4-7
|
2-4
|
2-2
|
4
|
2
|
6
|
2
|
1
|
3
|
0
|
1
|
12
|
TOTAL
|
200
|
36-59
|
16-27
|
9-12
|
11
|
26
|
37
|
20
|
14
|
7
|
11
|
2
|
97
|
That may not sound like a lot, but when you are playing up against EKU’s pressing defense, that can take a toll.
Turnovers margin, better offense, better defense, well-rested. Give me EKU -1.5.