Point Blank – May 29, 2017
Will the Price be Right for the Red Sox…And so many other questions about starting pitchers on a great day for Baseball (like where in the hell have these Peacock feathers come from)…
Memorial Day annually brings some of the most fun for the MLB fan of just about anything else on the calendar, the spreading of the games throughout the day allowing for so many look-ins (yes “Kelly’s Heroes” will again be recorded on the DVR, for viewing backdrop when the board lightens this evening), but for the handicapper it is also one of the most challenging. The holiday brings something that is ever so rare the rest of the season, teams having to travel into afternoon games, and the logistical issues that can entail.
In schedule order for today the Dodgers, Cardinals, Nationals, Diamondbacks, Brewers, Mets, Cubs, Padres, Athletics, Red Sox, Yankees, Orioles, Astros and Mariners all have daylight trips to the ballpark after being on a plane ride from their weekend series. Adding to it are a variety of pitching issues that also make this board a unique challenge.
The passing of Gregg Allman over the weekend will call for an extended tribute cycle from now until the end of the NBA playoffs, and there is something appropriate for the hectic Monday morning ahead – with so many decisions to make, and not all that much time to get on top of the various issues floating out there “Ain’t Wastin’ Time No More” becomes appropriate, this version from just a couple of years ago -
Now let’s put our Monday time to good use.
Item: Will the Price be right for the Red Sox
With as high as -183 out there in the early trading the markets are pricing David Price as though he is at the top of his game, Boston as a team just 10-12 on the road this season. Yes, there are some questions about David Holmberg built into that, as he gets called on to stretch out into a starter’s role, but it appears as though the oddsmakers and early bettors have projected Price as being ready to go. Is he?
This read is rather tricky, because we are dealing with a veteran that has come back from injury before (Price opened 2013 on the DL), and it means the focus across two rehab appearances was on how he was throwing his pitches and his various comfort zones, rather than how many batters he was getting out.
But, and it may be a significant but, in those two outings he only worked 5.2 frames, allowing nine runs (six earned), with a 2.47 WHIP that is not easy to digest. That is the bad. The good is that in the second outing Price was hitting 96 mph on the radar guns, after his average fastball was only recorded at 92.9 in 2016.
Here is his take: "I wasn't very good when I made my rehab starts in 2013 and I came back and threw the ball very well. So there's no replacing the feeling of the adrenaline that you're going to have at this level. To me, this is home. This is my comfort zone. This is where I want to be. It doesn't matter what level I make rehab starts at, it's not going to feel the same."
I will certainly respect the professionalism of Price in that regard, yet there remains a temptation to get involved because the markets have priced the game so high. But I will wait for another upwards tick before stepping in because the Boston bullpen is well set, including the superb current form of Craig Kimbrel. Only one of the last 24 batters Kimbrel has faced reached base, and that came when Nomar Mazzara got to first via a wild pitch on a third strike. Of those 24 batters, 14 struck out.
Item: And then there is Erasmo Ramirez
Ramirez may be an even more challenging read, and I would not be surprised if sometime during the day he becomes a scratch, but for now he is listed as the Rays starter (in truth they just may not have another option).
The policy for most teams when changing cities is to send the starting pitcher for the first game of the new series ahead a day earlier, so that he can be settled in and guaranteed of a good night’s sleep. Because Tampa was going from an afternoon game on Sunday into a night game at Texas the Rays did not do that with Ramirez, expecting to be comfortably in a DFW Metroplex hotel room by early Sunday evening. But yesterday’s game with the Twins turned into a 15-inning affair that lasted 6:26, and the last 12 pitches of the game were thrown by Ramirez in relief, after the Rays had run through their bullpen, six different relievers working, four going multiple innings, and three throwing more than 30 pitches.
Manager Kevin Cash offers optimism – “He should be fine, Erasmo, we always talk about how resilient his is.” And Ramirez offered a positive spin – “My arm feels good. I’m glad the inning was quick. I executed every pitch, and that gave me the chance to not just feel it that much. I told Cash my arms feels good just in case you want to continue with the plans. I want to start for sure.”
But here’s the thing – we aren’t talking about an elite performer that can reach back for something extra, Ramirez may reach his 500th MLB inning tonight (497.2 going in), and sits at 28-29/4.05, with a 4.30 FIP. And over the past two seasons only four of his 79 appearances have come in a starting role. Ramirez may end up back in the bullpen as the season progresses, but the Rays are playing their 11th game in as many days, and it is 31 in 32, May 18 having been the only off day. Cash just doesn’t have anywhere else to turn.
Note that while Ramirez opened the season in the bullpen he has only worked back-to-back days one time. He may be OK on the first pass through the lineup but stamina is a genuine concern (his first three starts only averaged 5.1 innings), and with so many tired arms behind him the Tampa pitching looks vulnerable throughout.
The flip side here is that Martin Perez has been sneaky good for Texas of late. His 2-5/3.77 brings no sex appeal, the W/L inside out of the way that he has pitched, and note a 3.73 FIP that backs up the ERA. Over his last four starts it has been 20 strikeouts vs. only four walks allowed, and he could have easily gone 4-0 across that span. Perez got tagged for a loss at Seattle in a game that was 1-1 into the bottom of the 7th; got a no-decision vs. the Padres when he left down 2-0 in the 7th; picked up an easy win from this mound vs. the Phillies; and then had a frustrating no-decision in Fenway on Wednesday, leaving with a 3-1 lead in the bottom of the 7th, and a couple of runners on base, before Sam Dyson failed to get any of the seven batters he faced out and the game turned around.
I’ll trust what I have seen from Perez enough to put #970 Texas (8:05 Eastern) into play, good to -135 (this one may get popular today, for the obvious reasons) with the strong Sunday outing from Andrew Cashner bringing in the Rangers bullpen well-set for the latter stages. Also nothing wrong with some Run Line at +145 or better, in what Cash may have to turn into a "take one for the team" setting with his bullpen if the Rays fall behind early. Outside of Colby Rasmus being replaced mid-game in left field every one of the Tampa position starters went the distance yesterday, and to be extended that long before the plane trip, and getting to bed later than expected, may have a residual effect this evening (though the time change to a later start does mitigate that a bit).
Item: Speaking of Rays/Twins, what do we do with Hector Santiago’s Sunday stats
Ramirez wasn’t the only unplanned pitcher at Target Field yesterday, the “L” for the game goes to Hector Santiago, who was brought in for the 15th inning despite having started and thrown 101 pitches against the Rays on Friday night. Santiago had nothing, allowing home runs to Evan Longoria and Logan Morrison on consecutive pitches, which of course gets mixed into his season statistics the same way as games in which he was fresh and on form.
I know that 95 percent of you don’t keep your own pitching files, but for those that do, I believe it is best to put yesterday’s outcomes for Santiago off to the side. But they go off to the side, and are not thrown out completely, because their presence in a stat files helps to be the * before his next start, to show that he may be out of his usual routine a bit.
And being out of routine may matter for a few other settings today…
Item: Will Brad Peacock and Randall Delgado need some Relief?
Both Peacock and Delgado were put into starting roles last week because that is what was needed by their teams, and when relievers get that opportunity they often bring an extra focus to the mound, in particular knowing that they have to think the game through and pace themselves. Both were successful, in particular Peacock, to the point at which his start at Minnesota today should be considered an audition (this isn’t just because Charlie Morton has gone to the DL, but that Mike Fiers has been so ineffective he was going to be skipped for a rotation pass or two, before Morton's injury called for a re-shuffle).
The question with both Peacock and Delgado today is how they respond when placed back in the starter’s role again, hence going under the microscope as the video monitors stay on baseball throughout the day. In particular Peacock brings one of the more fascinating reads on this board. Although it seems like he has been around a long time, having been drafted in 2006, he has not turned 30 yet, and there has been an unexpected surge this season to what has been a journeyman (4.30 ERA/4.27 FIP) career.
Through 20.2 IP Peacock has 30 strikeouts, and has only allowed eight hits. Let that sink in for a moment. Want some unique perspective? How about his SWS% since joining the Astros in 2013 –
2013 7.6
2014 8.4
2015 5.9
2016 7.9
2017 15.2
I don’t know what to do with that, because it is early and the sample size is small, but the ball is exploding out of Peacock's arm. The pitches aren’t necessarily going where he wants them to (5.2 BB/9), but the chance to watch him work will be one of the highlighted “things to do” tasks on this board.
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