Point Blank – April 4, 2017
It’s not bad to be Least in the NBA East…Gonzaga and North Carolina were ready, but the officials weren’t (and I have an idea why)…Will Lance McCullers shine like a Diamond, or will there be Rust (it’s Joan Baez day)…
Rites of passage across the sports betting landscape in these high-tech days do not bring much ceremony, merely a shifting of the bookmarks, so the fans in us hope that the events themselves at least bring us some elevated transitional moments. Cubs/Indians did that, as did Clemson/Alabama and Patriots/Falcons. The NCAA basketball climax not so much.
There is not much need to devote space here to what was a fingernails-on-chalkboard second half in Glendale, no post-mortems required to adjust power ratings on teams that won’t return to the court until November, and even then with major roster alterations. But there is a key point to be made about why it may have happened, which I will get to in a moment, on a day that also has the NBA’s closing stretch and the MLB in focus.
Multi topics means that some background is needed, and as Rock and Roll Hall of Fame week continues, and a tribute to the 2017 inductees, some of you might have thought that connecting a Joan Baez song was going to be a challenge, but not with her body of work. A significant MLB question that I will sort through today, is how to deal with a 2016 season from Lance McCullers that showed a lot of promise, though also had him work through two different injuries, and indeed it raises the questions of “Diamonds and Rust”. Here is a late-career version in which the original lyrics are updated a bit, to the appreciation of a good audience -
Well I'll be damned
Here comes your ghost again
But that's not unusual
It's just that the moon is full
A HOF opening, to a lyrical masterpiece. Now let’s get Monday night out of the way, which lacked such elegance, and left us with the historical footnote of the Final Four MOP being Joel Berry, who was 9-33 from the field in those two Tar Heel wins…
Item: What if the officiating crew genuinely wasn’t ready for Gonzaga/North Carolina
Let me propose something that may well be real, but difficult to quantify. That was a veteran crew working the NCAA title game last night, and instead of being bitter, Mark Few went out of his way to note that point in his post-game comments. Yet that crew literally lost control of the proceedings to begin the second half, blowing their whistles for fouls 11 times in the first 4:25, creating a muddled flow in which several key players for both sides had to sit for extended periods.
How much impact did it have on the outcome? That is never easy to gauge, but in truth the most effective player on the court last night was Gonzaga’s Zach Collins, who had nine points, seven rebounds and three blocked shots in just 14 minutes. In a battle of bruisers up front Collins was the most athletic big man, and it showed. But the minute limitations came first from him not starting, and then being charged with five fouls in the short stint he did get to play. Unfortunately for Collins, his team, and the sport itself, two were flat-out bad calls.
So now the reasoning behind the disjointed rhyme of a game. Both college basketball and the NBA have evolved to more perimeter flows, and the increases are becoming dramatic. Let’s use 3-point attempts as ratio of total shots taken in the college ranks as one of the key indicators:
2012 32.3%
2013 32.6%
2014 33.3%
2015 34.2%
2016 35.2%
2017 36.2%
Want an NBA progression through that same time frame? In 2012 the number of 3-point shots taken per game was 18.4. That went to 20.0, 21.5, 22.4, 24.1 and now 26.9 so far this season.
Smaller and quicker players dot the rosters, and that is why one of the key factors in breaking the game down here in yesterday’s edition was noting the impact that two big teams going head-to-head would have on the flow. Now looking back, could a case be made that because there is less physical play around the basket in this era, even a good officiating crew simply wasn’t ready to handle such a matchup?
I didn’t see much dirty play around the basket last night, but it was physical play. So how about a theory being proposed that in this era officials just don’t see that kind of basketball all that often, and may not be genuinely prepared to call that kind of game correctly. Not much more time for that now, because there is plenty to do on other fronts, like the NBA closing stretch...
Item: On Reading the Seedings in the NBA East
Something that was discussed in the weekend thread, and also alluded to in breaking down the Bulls yesterday, needs to come front-and-center – while the battles for the final playoff seeds are often lackluster affairs in which teams can offer bring the appearance of not wanting to qualify for the post-season, the East may be much different right now. The reason? Often being the #8 seed, or even the #7, means a first-round matchup that can turn into a blowout, and at the end of the long regular-season grind some players would prefer to begin their vacations rather than suffer an embarrassment.
The East is different this time. There is no intimidation in facing either the Cavaliers or Celtics right now, and in particular note what was written about Chicago on Monday – having gone 6-2 against those two teams, the Bulls are showing an energy to get a crack at either of them, which has buoyed them as a time when the injury to Dwyane Wade could have taken the wind from their sails.
Let me set the stage by isolating the races first, because every seed remains open. Here are three areas of focus.
Top Seed:
Boston 50-27
Cleveland 49-27
And what do we have coming up on Wednesday? These two clash in Boston in a game that will carry a lot of weight.
#3/#4
Toronto 47-30
Washington 46-31
This one is awkward, in that the difference between #3 and #4 may not necessarily be a benefit – in terms of matchups, there might be a preference by one of these teams to be the #4. I do like Toronto as a value concept, which has been written about here a few times, and while I once liked the chemistry of the Wizards there are signs of the minutes played having taken a toll, which I will come back to in a moment.
5-6-7-8
Milwaukee 40-37
Atlanta 39-38
Chicago 38-39
Indiana 37-40
Miami 37-40
Charlotte 36-41
Here is where the fun is. Four of these six teams will make the post-season, and as part of seeing them play with added energy, note what was written about Chicago vs. Cavs/Celtics earlier, and then check the results from the past week – Milwaukee went to Boston and won, and Indiana took Cleveland to double overtime on the road before falling. Hence why there needs to be more focus on teams that are not necessarily also-rans these days – claiming the #7 or #8 seed brings some opportunity this time around.
Now let’s set a different perspective on this so that you can better relate to what the players feel is happening on the court, as always using PP100 as the measure -
NBA Defense, Post All-Star Break
3. Toronto 102.4
4. Atlanta 102.6
5. Boston 102.9
7. Miami 103.6
13. Chicago 105.8
15. Milwaukee 106.4
17. Indiana 106.9
19. Charlotte 108.2
27. Washington 111.2
29. Cleveland 112.3
There is a lot to see here. You can note a big part of why I like the Raptors, the addition of Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker paying off exactly the way the team was hoping for. Meanwhile at the bottom the issues of the Cavaliers have already been a lead topic here, and the Wizards are now sending up smoke signals.
Here is the problem with Washington – John Wall is #4 in minutes played, Otto Porter #16, Bradley Beal #17 and Marcin Gortat #30. The significance of that? They are the only team in the NBA with three players in the top 20, and the only with four in the top 30, on those charts. That is showing in their defensive decline, after they were #9 at 105.0 heading to the break. Can they get their legs back, or has the toll already been taken? For now, the Wiz are yet another of the higher seeds that the teams at the bottom of the playoff ladder wouldn’t mind facing.
Item: On defining Lance McCullers from 2016, and trying to anticipate 2017
(NOTE: I wrote this on Monday afternoon while watching Opening Day across the MLB landscape, and was curious as to what the market perspectives on McCullers were going to be. There has already been a rather loud statement, Pinnacle going from -129 to -163 on the Astros, which means a bandwagon has already formed. But I did not change a word of the analysis, because the talking point is still significant.)
McCullers is one of the most intriguing pitching prospects in the sport this season, and also one of the most difficult to rate, hence the microscope is out right from the opening pitch. That may not be the case with others, who view him as a model of consistency already -
W/L ERA
2015 6-5 3.22
2016 5-6 3.22
But there may be much more to it than that. There was a true hint of greatness last season, courtesy of that brilliant curveball –
K/9 GB%
11.8 57.3
That combination jumps off the page. One of the things that will get written here often, so you should get ready for the 2017 versions of the phrasing, is that for a pitcher to be successful he needs to either be getting strikeouts or ground-balls at a high rate. Those that can get both will be special, and that is what made the 2016 McCullers rates intriguing, in a season that was limited by injury. To be over 10.0 K/9 and 50.0 in GB% is rare, and he was way over each count. For perspective only three pitchers have managed to do that over the last 10 seasons, and McCullers finished ahead of that terrific trio in each category. Let’s take a look, and also glance at ERA and FIP to see what the run prevention of this kind of pitching correlates to -
K/9 GB% ERA FIP
2016 – Syndergaard 10.7 51.2 2.60 2.29
2015 – Carrasco 10.6 51.2 3.63 2.84
2014 - Kershaw 10.9 51.8 1.77 1.81
Before getting too excited note a major difference – all three of those guys throw strikes. McCullers did not do that in 2016, the 3.1 BB/9 of his rookie season elevating to 5.0. Was that his shoulder injury reducing his effectiveness? Or was it the league catching up to his curveball after getting more looks? Or a combination of both?
Here is something to file away. O-Swing% is not a fool-proof stat because it relies on human judgment, but after following the charts for a few seasons it gets a passing grade, if not necessarily an “A”. For McCullers, the ability to get folks to swing at pitches outside the zone actually increased over his rookie campaign –
O-Swing%
2015 - 29.3
2016 - 33.4
For perspective, had McCullers thrown enough pitches to qualify in 2016, his rate would have been #10 in the Majors.
So with all of the positives, even with the high walk counts, what brought that uninspiring 6-5/3.22 for 2016? McCullers was victimized by a .383 BABIP. Of the 165 pitchers that worked at least 80 innings he was #165, and by a wide count – next on the list was Blake Snell at .356. That certainly clouded his 2016 bottom line, as did an 81.4 LOB% that also had some unfavorable baseball dice involved.
Was McCullers healthy in the spring? He looked it. Was he effective? You call it. In 16 IP he had the dynamic count of 24 strikeouts vs. only four walks, but it also translated to a 7.31 ERA despite only 20 hits allowed, once again LOB% playing a key role. There may be a lot of see with him this season, so I will put the added focus in early – will he be a sparkling Diamond when he takes the hill tonight, or was the lack of work in 2016, through both shoulder and elbow injuries, enough to have fears of Rust?
About Last Night, MLB…
You might as well get into the practice of doing good post-mortems from the get-go on the MLB diamonds, and as such you don’t want to quickly gloss over Stephen Strasburg’s showing vs. Miami. Yes, beating the Marlins and allowing two runs over seven IP might look like business as usual, but it wasn’t.
Strasburg’s command low in the strike zone was outstanding – he did not walk a batter, and had 63 of 85 pitches in the strike zone. That helped lead to a dozen ground-ball outs, and a nifty PPI of 12.1, after he did not go lower than 13.0 in 47 starts across the 2015-16 campaigns. Keep in mind that while his physical tools were always special, one of the keys to Strasburg's make-up from the early stages was that he also knew how to think through the game, a pitcher, and not just a thrower. On Monday, he was quite a pitcher.
In the Sights, Tuesday MLB…
I am never in a hurry to go high volume in the early MLB season, as noted here often I prefer the starters to have a couple of games under their belts, which coincides with teams having at least two series both home and away. But there are times in which I like to get ahead of the value curve, and that will have me in play with #910 Tampa First Half (7:10 Eastern), with this one now down into the pick’em range courtesy of some Yankee money in the early Tuesday marketplace.
Jake Odorizzi’s 10-6/3.69 of 2016 may not have generated a lot of sex appeal, but as the season went on he incorporated a cut fastball much more into his repertoire, and there was a big performance jump over the second half of the campaign –
ERA AVG OBP SLG
Pre-Break 4.47 .246 .307 .438
Post-Break 2.71 .227 .282 .395
I believe Odorizzi is under-valued, as is the team behind him. I also believe there is nothing special about C. C. Sabathia, who showed little Spring Training oomph, a 2.00 WHIP over 12 uninspiring innings, and while ordinarily I would attach little weight to the numbers of a veteran working his way into shape, in this instance I believe it may be a precursor for a guy that may not have all that much in the tank. Sabathia does have the savvy to adapt to pitching to contact, with his GB% topping 50.0 for only the second time in his career in 2016, but the Yankee infield defense is a question mark right now, and playing on a fast surface won’t help on that front.
I am not interested in the latter stages of this one because of the gap between the bullpens, but this price point is more than fair for where these starters, and these teams, are at this stage, and it doesn’t hurt that Evan Longoria in particular will relish seeing Sabathia again (a rather staggering career 1.319 OPS over 86 plate appearances, including seven home runs).
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