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PB: Tourney Thursday - The Game Inside the Game

PB: Tourney Thursday - The Game Inside the Game
David Malinsky
Joined: 08/11/2014
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RD Neil

Looking ahead to Saturday, 2 games jumped out at me this morning...both continuing on the topic of potentially fading the Big 10:

Villanova/Wisconsin - this line seems to be a full basket short?  Do you think this is being driven down by the bookmakers due to Villanova's slow start yesterday, the slower pace of both teams, and Wisconsin's defense?  There was nothing impressive about Wisconsin yesterday in my opinion, they ran into a team that was just shooting as poorly as them and even then V Tech was a basket or stop away from that game having a totally different outcome... Wisconsin won't get away with that against this Villanova offense in my opinion.    

Iowa State/Purdue - line seems about right with Iowa St +1 but when we bring the handicapping factors in and what has been discussed here a lot about Iowa State, I've been ready to take this at post.  Before pulling the trigger I wanted to see if you agreed on my overall takeaway from watching Purdue yesterday that I didn't see anything that special.  It was nice to squeak out that cover but it seemed like Vermont was lurking the entire game.  Against Iowa State, again I just don't think that will fly given their pace and ability to score so quickly.  I was a little concerned with Iowa State letting Nevada get within striking distance in the mid part of the 2nd half yesterday though.

Any other factors we should consider on either game?

I may bring both of these games front-and-center tomorrow because the talking points are interesting. Wisconsin survived on some really great shooting by Bronson Koenig, with several of those 8 made triples really tough looks late in the shot clock, and the end-game breaking open was largely a result of two offensive rebounds bouncing favorably for the Badgers, and not necessarily great positioning by the rebounders. Sometimes basketball just happens that way. Villanova's veterans were largely awful last night, getting bailed out by Donte DiVencenzo and Eric Paschall combining for 31 points and 14 rebounds off the bench (DiVencenzo ended up laying 37 minutes, not leaving the game once he got out there). As you will read in the Friday edition with Gonzaga, I do like some of the sloppy elite teams after a first round "mulligan", but am only interested in -5 or less right now.

I thought Vermont played awfully well against Purdue last night, executing at an extremely high level on offense, and that made it a genuine sweat (and of course that 5-point play down the stretch made it dicey). This one will definitely make the "Game Inside the Game" list for Saturday because of the contrasts. The Boilermakers have been a step slow all season, which creates a real headache against ISU - if Vermont can have 21 assists vs. 6 turnovers, imagine what Monte Morris can create. But the flip side is that the Cyclones just don't have much side inside, and the rebound matchup is one they will likely lose substantially (note that for as tough as the Big 12 was overall this season, there were not a lot of talented low-post offensive players that State had to guard).

Paypurr Tiger
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Dave,

What do you think of Spurs / Grizzlies tonight?  The Spurs are a good bet off a loss with vengeance too.  The Grizz could be overrated off of a 3-game winning streak against mediocre East teams, mostly in good situations for Memphis that upped their chances of winning.  The last victory a road upset over the Hawks, who had 2 days rest while Memphis had zero rest on a back-to-back.

Do you think the Grizz are ripe to be brought back down to earth, or have they found a groove?  Are they still toying with their lineup, or are they happy with the results of their lineup experiments over the past week or two?

David Malinsky
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Posts: 12814
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Paypurr Tiger

What do you think of Spurs / Grizzlies tonight?  The Spurs are a good bet off a loss with vengeance too.  The Grizz could be overrated off of a 3-game winning streak against mediocre East teams, mostly in good situations for Memphis that upped their chances of winning.  The last victory a road upset over the Hawks, who had 2 days rest while Memphis had zero rest on a back-to-back.

Do you think the Grizz are ripe to be brought back down to earth, or have they found a groove?  Are they still toying with their lineup, or are they happy with the results of their lineup experiments over the past week or two?

I was hoping that the markets would have bought into the Memphis run a bit more, and bring this one in lower. There was a "feel good" form Vince Carter starting that the team badly needed, but they may have already run its course - in Thursday's win at Atlanta he only scored 3 points in 29 minutes, and somehow managed to not grab a single rebound (it is hard to be out there that long in an NBA game and not have the ball bounce to you at least once). The Spurs have had 2 prep days for this one, which should matter, but the bottom line is that the markets continue to overprice them - they are 2-7 ATS in March, one of them the meaningless rout of Golden State last Saturday, and the other cover coming by a single point vs. Atlanta on Monday. There are handicapping notions that fit, but just not enough value to get me to reach towards the pocket unless -3 shows (and I really wanted -2).

Paypurr Tiger
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My other play is Jazz -7 visiting the Bulls.  That's a lot of points to lay on the road.  Sagarin's ratings would only justify a -2 spread

But the Bulls are on zero rest and the Jazz have vengeance from a previous home loss.  Mostly this is a fade of the Bulls, I don't think they play hard and I don't see them being well-motivated compared to the Jazz.

jigza2121
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Hey Dave,

I am looking at the under 148 in the ND game....like you have said repeatedly, if WV doesn't get turnovers for easy baskets, their half court offense can be very bad.....since ND doesn't turn the ball over much, has really solid guard play, and seemingly prefers a slower pace game, would under 148 be a fit for you?  Thanks.

David Malinsky
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Posts: 12814
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jigza2121

I am looking at the under 148 in the ND game....like you have said repeatedly, if WV doesn't get turnovers for easy baskets, their half court offense can be very bad.....since ND doesn't turn the ball over much, has really solid guard play, and seemingly prefers a slower pace game, would under 148 be a fit for you?  Thanks.

That game is one of the leads in the Weekend Edition, and it does have a chance to be a fit, now that 145 has become 148. I believe Notre Dame will only look to beat the press by getting the ball to mid-court and then run sets, instead of attacking to score, and that helps to set a moderate tempo as well.
Paypurr Tiger
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Anybody have a theory on why the Jazz-Bulls game is so far off the Sagarin ratings (Utah 94, Chicago 88.6?)  The game is at Chicago, so the Sagarin line would be Jazz -2.5 if not adjusted for situational factors.

David Malinsky
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Posts: 12814
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Paypurr Tiger

Anybody have a theory on why the Jazz-Bulls game is so far off the Sagarin ratings (Utah 94, Chicago 88.6?)  The game is at Chicago, so the Sagarin line would be Jazz -2.5 if not adjusted for situational factors.

The loss of Dwyane Wade would not be factored into the Sagarin ratings.

Paypurr Tiger
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The Clippers seem to be a team that gets up for interesting game, doesn't play well against elite teams like the Rockets and Warriors, and plays down to the competition in other games.  Their games seem to be mostly about what's inside their heads, which is mushy material.  

In home revenge games this year, they've beaten rivals such as the Grizzlies, Lakers, Celtics and Thunder SUATS.  But they've failed to cover versus the Rockets, Warriors, Pacers, 76ers and Bucks.

Dave, do you think the Cavaliers match up tough against the Clips?  Kyle Korver is out, Kyrie Irving is questionable.

I bit off a piece of Clips-2 and am thinking about adding some at -3 after the pro-Clips line move.

Paypurr Tiger
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Also worth mentioning: The Cavs are 2-6 as dogs this year.  Players enjoy stepping on the throats of defending champions when they see they have a good chance to win.

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