Point Blank – November 1 2016
Cubs/Indians Game #6, Correlated Parlay Time
The Cubs and Indians are back to Cleveland for Game #6, with the potential for some very high drama over the next 12 hours, or perhaps the next 36. Eric Strasser, author of Betting Baseball for Profit and better known as “Palmtree” around these parts, and I both see value for this setting, in this case a combination of both Marketology and Baseball. So let’s get to work – as always at playoff time I will have Eric’s comment in Italics.
Ok, the Game #6 line is too high, even with some trickling back down this morning the Cubs are anywhere from -142 to -147. That reflects some natural market bias towards Chicago in play, and also something that may seem to be tangible, but perhaps not to the degree of the perceptions – Jake Arrieta on full rest being far better than Josh Tomlin having to work on three days.
Here is the gist. Yes Arrieta carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning in Game #2, and The Tribe have struggled against quality pitchers – since the start of the LCS it has only been 29 runs in 10 games. Arrieta may indeed perform well again. But Tomlin only threw 58 pitches in Game #3, much of it looking like pitch-and-catch with Roberto Perez, which negates much of the turnaround issue, and I believe Terry Francona is likely to only project him for two passes through the order tonight, not allowing any of the Cubs to get a third look.
From Palmtree - My biggest problem with the betting line is that it presupposes Arrieta vs. Tomlin as a regular season game we're both guys might pitch 6 - 7 innings. Francona showed in Game #3 that he's looking for about four innings from Tomlin and then turn the game over to his magnificent bullpen. What happens to a Cubs bettor if the game is 1-1 in the bottom of the fifth and Tomlin is out of the game?
Can Tomlin be effective again? Perhaps, given that a young Cubs team has indeed been precocious at the plate in this series. There has been a noticeable lack of patience from the Chicago offense, and for a striking example, literally, here is a nice table put together by Mark Simon (@msimonespn) on Javier Baez extending his strike zone –
Hence it may not take Tomlin all that many pitches to reach his goal, and it would be no shock to see three innings from Andrew Miller tonight. Because of that the handicap read pushing this line high may well be misplaced, and the same can be said of the Total, with 7 Over -130 common, and the first 7.5 Under -120 now appearing at a key precinct. This is where the opportunity comes in.
First, some more from Palmtree on the overall game value - If I didn't have a series play I would be on the Indians at what I think is a ridiculous number. However having a series play that I've not only carried but added to over the series makes my decision a lot tougher. Anyone without a Series bet should be on the Indians Tuesday night at the best available number. What have the Indians done in October to make anyone think they're going to lose 3 games in a row?
I concur with most of that but see the Total as the stronger path, especially with the prospect of a 7.5, because the one thing Cleveland has struggled to do in October is manufacture runs against the better opposing pitchers.
So where do we go? To something that gets discussed often in Football and Basketball, the land of the Correlated Parlay. What is this beast? It is a setting in which one leg of a two-event parlay coming in naturally means that the second outcome has had its prospect of cashing increased as well. This is most thought of in terms of Underdog/Under or Favorite/Over in the point spread sports, and the best of the settings are the former.
The logic is simple – if a game has played Under it means there were few points scored. If there were few points scored, then an underdog would have had an increased chance of having covered the spread. The phenomenon is such that many Sports Books block games with rather obvious correlations, like football Totals in the low 40’s when there is also an underdog in double figures.
Since there is both value to Cleveland, and to the Under, here is how I will work it – a #952 Cleveland Run Line & Under Parlay (8:05 Eastern). At -135 and 7 Under +110 there is a $265.56 return for a $100 ticket, and at 7.5 Under -120 you can get a 219.94 payout. You can see how the logic fits – if the game has played Under, then the room for the Cubs to have won by two runs or more is quite limited.
Both Run Lines and Unders are triggered by a lack of big innings, and that is the key. Tomlin may get hit, but he is going to throw strikes, and that means a lot of quality contact is needed to produce a crooked inning. Arrieta struggled with his control early in Game #2, but once he settled in he rolled along rather smoothly. Meanwhile the bullpens all had Monday off and there are not likely to be major rallies in the latter stages, with so many platoon options available from the relief casts. Also anticipate Joe Maddon and Terry Francona aiding to our cause by playing for one-run when the option is there, giving away outs to advance base-runners. The Cubs can get to four runs, which I do not expect, and we can still come away with a payout on a 4-3 Chicago win.
Should that happen, we’ll be back tomorrow to cover Game #7 in this same spot, adding fresh commentary both here, and in the appropriate spot in the thread – I believe keeping the remainder of the 2016 MLB season in one spot will make for the best flow.
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