Point Blank – October 5
Polls matter for Clinton/Trump, not Saban/Meyer…A lap around the pool with Belichick and Brady…Palmtree and I will both be in play in New York this evening…
The opening of the 2016 MLB Playoffs provided a lot of drama in Toronto last night, including the rather curious handling of the end-game pitching by Buck Showalter, and if anything that can help to get the proper frame of mind for baseball bettors going forward – so many of the outcomes the next few weeks will have major swings based on a single decision, or a single pitch. But if we get the proper value there is the opportunity to win through the cycle, and that value appears to be there in Giants/Mets tonight. I’ll get to that in a moment (yes, I know many of you will just scroll straight to the bottom), but first time to touch on a key football issue that may have some misperceptions out there.
Item: On the end-games in the Playoff era for the Big Five powers
This will probably become an annual take; since the notion came up in the discussion thread last weekend there is need for it. While there will be a continuing narrative across the Sports Mediaverse that the likes of Urban Meyer and Nick Saban are out there looking to impress the pollsters on these autumn Saturday’s, in truth that part of the NCAA landscape has changed drastically. In fact last weekend’s results offered a mini-seminar in just how the mindsets have been altered, and it opens the door for the shrewd handicapper to take advantage.
Here is the gist –
- An unbeaten team from the SEC or the Big 10 makes the playoffs, while an unbeaten from the ACC, Pac 10 or Big 12 is almost assured of that; and…
- Winning a National Championship is going to require 15 games, unless a team is from the Big 12.
Put those elements together and what does it mean? The old notion of style points is of little relevance. Alabama can go 12-0, each win by a single point, then win the SEC title game by a single point, and the Crimson Tide are in the Playoffs. Saban knows this, and he also knows how difficult of a grind it is to have to play 15 games, especially with the last three against top-flight competition. As such the goal is to try to manage the players as well as possible throughout the regular season, and instead of going out of the way to crush an out-manned opponent, those settings actually provide a chance to back off the throttle.
Let’s use last Saturday to help build the model. For Saban it was absolutely nothing new, while for Meyer it may be representing a paradigm change.
Alabama led Kentucky 31-3 after three quarters, and the Crimson Tide could have easily extended that margin had there been a need. There wasn’t, so the final stanza only had 25 offensive snaps combined. While Saban did allow back-up QB Cooper Bateman to throw the ball on the final Bama drive, they had the ball for 5:09 and only got off eight plays.
That has been the pure Saban prototype for many years now – the previous week it was 48-0 at the end of the third quarter vs. Kent State, and that part of the scoreboard did not change in the fourth. The Alabama offense had the ball for 7:23 of the final period, and only snapped it 11 times.
While Meyer has not been of the Saban manner in these settings in the past, consider the final Buckeye possession of the win over Rutgers, a thing of beauty in terms of season management – no starters on the field, and 10:24 of game clock used up with only 15 offensive plays. The last of those plays came on a fourth-and-goal from the 11-yard line, when Meyer could have chosen to throw a pass into the end zone, or even kick a field goal. He opted instead to run the ball, the most difficult way to score from that setting, and the play only went for two yards.
This is the reality of the playoff era for teams at the top. Both Saban and Meyer left points off the scoreboard that could have easily been there, but those points are of no real consequence to them in the Playoff hunt. That is something for the shrewd handicapper to factor in to their analysis, both in terms of projecting the games ahead, and also in the way they grade those that have been played.
And of course there is the usual caveat in terms of understanding the Alabama defense. While Saban indeed produces one of the best units in the nation each season, the numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt – his defense has only been on the field for an average of 60.8 plays per game this season. Might that actually have been a hindrance when Ohio State and Clemson spread the field and pushed the tempo in the last two Playoff cycles? Plenty of food for thought there, and perhaps a lead topic somewhere down the line.
Survivor Pool Week #5
I am going to be a little dull this week and join in with the crowd, but a call to NEW ENGLAND is not necessarily being overly conservative – the Patriots will need to be used at some point, and the schedule gets challenging from here (they’ve already played their two easiest home division games). So with the proper frame of mind both off of a loss, and with Tom Brady’s return, and the Browns bringing energy but lacking the polish to pull such an upset, the call is an easy one.
Week #1 – Kansas City
Week #2 – Carolina
Week #3 – Miami
Week #4 – Washington
Week #5 – NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Item: To help you with your MLB digging, both 2016 Playoffs and beyond…
The MLB Playoffs are going to bring an added opportunity for PB readers – the chance to dig in to the numbers a little more deeply courtesy of our friends at MatchupCenter, and also an opportunity to help them best design the models for 2017. You can go in and kick the tires for free through the post-season, and they will be most appreciative of whatever feedback you can bring - the goal is to not only package the best numbers together, but also to get them into the easiest formats to use. Make sure that you to the "Download the source analytics data" section, so that you can view everything that is available, and make suggestions for what isn’t there that you would like to see.
In the Sights, Wednesday MLB…
As was the case last season Eric Strasser, author of Betting Baseball for Profit, and better known as Palmtree around these parts, will be joining in until the final out of the World Series. The collaborations worked rather well last October, and the dynamics of the teams involved this year will bring ample opportunity, with some tough decisions for the odds makers and markets to make. I will be mixing Eric’s ideas into the flow here, using italics to designate what has come directly from him, and we are now in full agreement for tonight at the current trading. That was not quite the case at the get-go, but now that the Mets are available at an underdog rate of return it will be #934 New York (8:05 Eastern) in play, my own ratings making it work at even money or better.
Now time for Mr. Strasser - I made the number Mets -123 here so immediately bet a little Mets -108 when it opened. I made the bet expecting Giants money as Bumgarner will almost always get bet in a standalone primetime game just based on reputation, but also knowing the numbers point the other way. I’ll complete my unit at best available price before game time.
There’s nothing here pointing to Bumgarner other than reputation. Syndergaard has been the better pitcher all year. 10.7 K/9 vs. 10.0 BB/9 very close but 2.1 vs 2.2. 51% GB rate vs 39.6%. Better hard hit ball rate, xFIP 2.67 vs. 3.54. Thor sweeps the metrics, and to make an analogy everyone will understand, that difference in xFIP is comparable to a -7 spread in an NFL game. It’s a big deal.
The Mets bullpen is deeper and more consistent with Salas, Reed and Familia all throwing well down the stretch, while the Giants problems have been well documented. The Mets struggled early in the year against LHP but Reyes (1.200 OPS) and Rene Rivera (.935 OPS) have changed that. Giants will try and run on Syndergaard but their best base stealer (Nunez) is probably not going to play.
I’ve heard people point to the Giants “experience” as a reason to bet them, but the Mets were in the World Series last year so I can’t see the edge there. Can Bumgarner summon his post-season magic one more time and win the game himself? Sure he can, although his fastball has lost four MPH since he’s thrown a playoff game. That’s not the way to bet it.
Let me add to that notion of Bumgarner’s current stuff vs. those memories of October’s past – since the All Star break he has worked to a 5-5/3.80 tune over 15 starts and 97 innings. That was all. He was solid and dependable, but he was not special, and the market surge on this game is trying to put him into the category of being special. Meanwhile the team behind Bumgarner has only gone 30-42 since the All Star break, which has this game now being mislabeled, a price sticker that we can take advantage of.
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