Point Blank – September 8
It could be a Lions roar for Stafford this week…Win, Read, Eat and Brag; what could be better…We’ll be with the Force, on Saturday…
The NFL is going to begin in style tonight with one of the best opening matchups in memory, not just because of the Super Bowl rematch, but the ability to see Trevor Siemian front-and-center, which there just have not been many opportunities to do. I will not likely be coming out of pocket for anything before kickoff, but there can be some early “tells” for In-Running, and if nothing else the Panthers bring the ability to root for that Over 10.5 ticket that was put in play on this page back in July. I will copy and paste that near the end today, for those who were not following along during the daily MLB cycle.
Meanwhile it is Fantasy time, as will be the case each Thursday, looking at the best value on the QB board, which can also bring some key handicapping notions into play as well.
Item: Fantasy QB Week #1 – Matthew Stafford
The focus on the QBs this season will be searching for the best Value opportunity, and Stafford brings us a prime example to start – he is #10 on the DraftKings board and #15 at FanDuel, which makes him an extremely under-rated item.
There were questions coming into training camp about whether the late-season run by the Lions in 2015 was Jim Bob Cooter really tweaking the offense in such a positive way, or if they merely caught lightning in a bottle. I see a little of each, part of it being a team refusing to quit after a tough early cycle (remember how bitter those endings were vs. the Seahawks and Packers), and playing back to their level. There has been something to see in camp, however, the offense picking up the tempo and spreading the ball around, which is exactly what they should do in the post-Calvin Johnson era – there may no longer be a Hall of Famer to challenge opposing defenses, but a three-man WR tandem of Golden Tate, Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin can be a strong fit for the tempo they want to play at, and TE Eric Ebron still has that untapped potential.
Stafford had a 110.1 Passer Rating over the second half of 2016, with 19 TD passes vs. only two interceptions, and now gets to carry that over into a disheveled Colts secondary that is likely to start Antonio Cromartie and T. J. Green, neither who have ever played a down in an Indianapolis uniform. Cromartie was signed late, not appearing in the pre-season, and at the age of 32 his conditioning will be an issue, which is a major downgrade from Vontae Davis, while Green is a rookie that will have to fill in for Clayton Geathers.
The Colts face issues of depth, talent and chemistry in the back-end, and the fact that this group has not had much chance to work together can be exacerbated by a team that will play fast and force them into nickel packages. In what should be an uptempo affair throughout, Stafford brings a Quality/Quantity pairing (he might throw it 35-40 times) here that works, at a more than fair price point.
Item: Now let’s get our Fantasy Challenge rolling
OK guys, time to get started with the entries today for our Point Blank Fantasy Challenge. There was a good response for the Cubs -200 prop, and when they return to Wrigley I will list those that are still in contention. The format will be simple, yet challenging enough. You will select three players –
- QB Rushing and Passing Yards and TD Passes/TDs Scored2
- RB Rushing and Receiving Yards and all TDs Scored3
- WR/TE Rushing and Receiving Yards and all TDs Scored
Players get one point for yards, and six for TDs. Note that special teams TDs count for the RBs and WR/TE category.
There are three prizes – a signed copy of Arne Lang’s engrossing new tome “Sports Betting and Bookmaking: An American History”; a $100 gift card from Omaha Steaks; and of course the bragging rights over your peers, which one cannot even put a price on.
Entries will be open until kickoff on Sunday, since I do not expect tonight’s Panthers/Broncos opener to give away all that much, and to get in the game you can go here.
In the Sights - Carolina Team Total Over 10.5.
(Reprinting from late July)
It is almost as though it has become “handicapping chic” to not like the Panthers, and believe that they were over-achievers. But this build started to happen late in the 2014 campaign, when they closed the regular season on a 4-0 run and beat the Cardinals in the first round of the playoffs, before being eliminated at Seattle. There have been good personnel decisions made across the board, and you could see more of that philosophy at play in this year’s draft, when they took DT Vernon Butler in the first round despite the fact that they are already well-stocked at the position. The “best player available” philosophy has played out well for them, especially when the luck of the draw put them in position to grab Newton a few years ago.
For this ticket to fail the Panthers will have to lose five more games than in 2015, despite the fact that as I look through the schedule they could easily be favored 15 times, the only likely underdog role being at Seattle in Game #12. The fact that 11-5 is a “win” brings value, and I will take advantage of it.
In the Sights, NCAA Saturday…
Troy Calhoun’s Air Force Falcons could be interesting as hell this season. They have a run/pass QB in Nate Romine, who is healthy again and brings senior smarts; in Jacobi Owens there is a RB that should have his third-straight 1,000 yard season; and the offense gets balanced out by the best group of receivers ever at the Academy, with 6-4 Jalen Robinette having a chance to make NFL draft boards, and WR Ronald Cleveland and TE Ryan Reffit each catching 62-yard TD passes last week (Tyler Williams also caught a pass for 41 yards, but did not score on the play). Meanwhile the defense is as experienced as they come, with 10 senior starters, and a junior at the other position that is backed up by a senior. The schedule is such that there is an honest chance to be 11-0 when they host Boise State the day after Thanksgiving (how much fun would that be). Hence why I want to buy in early, and with Georgia State ripe to wilt in the second half, it is #348 Air Force (2:00 Eastern) in play this week, with -18 available in the Thursday morning trading, and value extending up to -21.
Georgia State got worn down in the second half last week, which can happen to a program of that level. The problem is that it happened vs. Ball State. The Cardinals are not a physical team, yet they pounded their way for 325 rushing yards, more than double the 153 they averaged last year, and likely double what they will average the rest of this season. The issue was two-fold, without program-turner Nick Arbuckle at QB (The Sun Belt Player of the Year in 2015, when he threw for over 4,000 yards) the Panther offense could not stay on the field, and a defense that was bending even when fresh finally broke.
HC Trent Miles was blunt about it - “Now you are seeing what it’s like, life without Nick Arbuckle. We didn’t do anything on offense to help move the ball and protect our defense. … They ran the ball down our throat. Our defense was out on the field for a long period of time.”
And again, that was at home vs. Ball State. Now it is the altitude of Colorado Springs and an offense that was difficult enough to defend when it was purely a run package, but now much more so because of the way the Falcons can spread the field and throw. Even with Romine injured for almost all of 2015 Air Force finished #15 in the nation in Pass Efficiency (you could win a lot of bar bets with that), and now that he is back the balance can be special, not just because of his physical abilities, but the way that his experience opens the tool box. This note, from the Colorado Springs Gazette, lays it out well - Offensive coordinator Mike Thiessen said Romine's presnap checks resulted in him putting the team in the correct play about 14 out of 15 times.
Georgia State will struggle to keep up with that offense early, but it is in the second half when this one should break open. Miles faces the awful task of having his team play this one, and then go to Wisconsin next Saturday for another physical pounding, and as such he has to spread the snaps out across his roster, likely not chasing all that hard from behind. Meanwhile Air Force is off next week, so after coasting in a sloppy opener vs. Abilene Christian, there is nothing preventing the Falcons from going hard for the full 60 minutes here.
Item: For your listening pleasure
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