Point Blank – August 31
How to ‘Measure’ the Chargers home field advantage…Seeing Red, with the Cincinnati offense…Kyle Hendriks has been good; the Cubs defense has been great…You can believe in Ian Kennedy’s surge
It is the final installment of the tour across the NFL camps today, the fitting timing with NCAA games hitting the board tomorrow, and today a little plot twist – instead of players and coaches the focus shifts to the home field advantage, or lack of one, in San Diego this season. Then time to focus in on the MLB diamonds, dealing with one of those “tells” you can find for a team that is playing more for individual stats than the scoreboard, and also a chance to get in play in Kansas City tonight.
Item: Will the Chargers have much (any) of a home field advantage?
This starts with the general notion that the San Diego home field has been of only minimal benefit through the years, for some logical reasons. There are a lot of transplants in southern California from other regions, which can mean fans buying tickets to root for the teams from their original home,;while the weather is almost always good, not bringing any peculiarities to aid the home side; and the fact that teams traveling from other time zones get the benefit of added time on the clock for east/west travel also comes into play (the Chargers lose time when they play at Kansas City and Denver each season; the Chiefs and Broncos get to add some when they head to S.D.).
How minimal has it been? Let’s trace it back five seasons –
SU ATS Net ATS
2015 3-5 2-6 -45
2014 5-3 3-5 +22.5
2013 5-3 5-3 +24.5
2012 3-5 2-6 -47
2011 5-3 3-5 +7
Total 21-19 15-25 -38
Note that the Net ATS of roughly -1 point per game does not equate to a 15-25 distribution, but in that sample a couple of blowouts did have a major impact on the numbers.
This time around there is an added pressure, the cloud of Measure C and Measure D, which will be up for voter referendum on November 8, and will determine whether the team is to remain in San Diego, or move up the coast to Los Angeles. Much like a political contest, there is open campaigning going on to try to sway the voters, and so far the projections are not promising, with a recent SurveyUSA poll showing 39 percent support for “C”, and 29 percent for “D”.
The Chargers themselves are pushing it, which makes for a most unusual, and most awkward, handicapping evaluation. With half of the home games coming after the vote takes place, what will the energy level be like from the players on the field, and the fans in the stands, should the outcome be a “no”? It particularly matters because I don’t expect the Chargers to be fighting for a playoff spot, with a dearth of talent on a roaster that lacks upside. And while San Diego is indeed a great place to live, since the alternative is merely moving a couple of hours up the coast, it is not like the players are battling to avoid Siberia.
I will be measuring the mood carefully as things progress (did you get that one?), and the best place to start is with 14-year veteran Antonio Gates, who has played his entire NFL career with the Chargers, although being such an elder statesmen leads him to the expected high level of diplomacy -
“That can be a distraction for some guys, especially the young guys. Myself and Philip [Rivers], guys who have been around, say, look, I know you hear a lot of stuff about whether we might be here or not. Screw all of that. Let’s go out and play football and win some games, and I am quite sure it will take care of itself. Winning football games, we like to think it helps. We are not sure. But we like to think that. That’s kind of our [mindset]. Obviously we don’t want to focus too much on the stadium situation, because we want to win football games. But at the same time we feel like we can kind of play a part in it. That’s where we are at with it.
But perhaps slipping into a little more honesty is back-up QB Kellen Clemens, who is in his third year with the team - “That’s an interesting side note. That will—let me see how I want to say this. We will have to maintain our focus through the entire season, no matter which way it goes. Obviously it would be a big sigh of relief if on Nov. 8 we get the necessary votes to do it. But it was emotional last year thinking we might be leaving. If it’s a sure thing … you hate to even think about that possibility at the end of the year.”
At the best of times the Chargers do not bring the usual NFL home field advantage. Over the final half of this season there may be a question as to whether they have any at all.
Item: The Reds lost their way on the road (and in particular why that matters)
I lost a couple of tickets trying to back the Cincinnati offense on Sunday/Monday, and in doing so the Post-Mortem was not pretty. There was a logic that came into play, however, and while I did not expect it at the time it is something that should be a part of your MLB late-season processes.
Before leaving for a non-division road trip the Reds were 22-15 since the All Star break, and put together a 6-4 homestand against contenders Miami, Los Angeles and Texass. The surge was not enough to create anything more than a battle for last place with Milwaukee in the N.L. Central, but the energy seemed high enough to maintain, and when they scored 16 runs in splitting the first two games at Arizona I believed that energy was still there. But one of the danger zones for MLB teams are late-season road games outside of the division that have no impact on the standings. While I do maintain that hitters go hard to the final pitch of the season, every at-bat worth $$$ as statistics are compiled for contracts, there can be a “team” element lacking – the hitters are out there more to make something happen for themselves by swinging the bat, rather than taking a walk to aid the scoreboard cause. That has come front and center with the Cincinnati lineup.
Over the last three games there have been 103 trips to the batter’s box by the Reds, and they only drew two walks. One came from pinch-hitter Tyler Holt in the 9th inning vs. Jose Valdez on Monday, and the other from Billy Hamilton in the 9th against Fernando Salas last night. That is a rather dubious ratio, the MLB average calling for 8.3 free passes over a routine sample. In this instance one must also factor into the equation that on Sunday they faced the struggling Archie Bradley, and of the 111 pitchers that have worked at least 110 innings this season, he rates #109 in BB/9. Bradley did not walk a batter for the first time in his career (I do not register a start at Colorado in which he only faced six batters).
I usually downplay the notion of players going flat late because of the financial issues noted above – there are few letdowns in the batter’s box. But there is a team aspect that can come into play – when players are more focused on their own numbers than the scoreboard it can mean taking fewer walks, and also not hitting behind runners when the situation calls for it, two items that do impact team production. If you are fighting for a playoff spot, and there is a runner on second with no outs, you are willing to lose some batting average on a ground-out that moves the runner to third, the rewards of the playoffs making it worthwhile. But when a team is 20 games under .500, a batter becomes less likely to sacrifice his personal statistics for the good of the team. That is a handicapping notion to be aware of down the stretch.
About Last Night…
Want a direct comparison between team hustle and doing the little things, and a team playing for individual accomplishments? Off of the sparkler from Kyle Hendricks and the Chicago defense last night, the Cubs are now allowing a .248 BABIP since the All Star break. That is an astonishing number, with MLB at .295 in that span, and the second-place team being Detroit, at a solid .273 that is still quite a distance away.
This defense was a lead topic here two months ago but as the season goes on the Cubs are actually getting better, instead of having the numbers flatten out. What is particularly intriguing behind that is Joe Maddon using shifts less often than he did at Tampa, but while the alignments have not been overly pronounced, the scouting reports and the positioning of the defenders has been a major factor in that 84-47 record being compiled.
This is putting a unique pressure on the Cy Young voters – Hendricks now sports the best ERA in MLB at 2.09, with only Madison Bumgarner (2.49) and Noah Syndergaard (2.55) within a half run of him. Will voters have the savvy to grasp the difference between a pitcher’s own merits, and that of the defense behind him? No fault to Hendricks, but those legs, gloves and hands in the field have played such a major role.
In the Sights…
The Royals may have had their momentum side-tracked for a moment last night but in defeat they were competitive to the final pitch, and their run is still at 18-5, with three of the five defeats coming when they were up against Chris Sale, David Price and Jose Fernandez. They do not see anywhere near that level from Luis Cessa tonight, and with Ian Kennedy showing something when placed under the microscope there is solid value to #928 Kansas City (8:15 Eastern), with this one good up to -135.
Cessa has won his first two starts since being moved into the rotation to push his season line to 4-0/4.11, but there is nothing to get carried away with – it has been a .207 BABIP for 30.2 innings playing to his favor, and in both starts that category checked in at .200. He has not built the stamina up to offer more than six innings here even if he brings his best stuff, and there are real bullpen issues for Joe Girardi, with Dellin Betances off of two full innings last night and Tyler Clippard needing 34 pitches to get through 1.2.
Meanwhile I was prepared to not like Kennedy in his recent outings , perceiving his positive run to be a case of Kaufman being a good fit for him, and fearing his fly-ball counts getting him into trouble against some tough customers on the road. But Kennedy showed command and confidence in recording 13 strikeouts over 12 innings of road wins against the Red Sox and Tigers, and when you add a solid showing at Texas in a no-decision a month ago it tells us that he really has stepped his game up. In his only two home starts in August he allowed just one run over 14.1 innings, so that form can continue here, and note that while the Yankee bullpen keys suffered some wear on Tuesday, Kelvin Herrera got the night off for the Royals and will be all set to close this one out.
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