Point Blank – May 31
The Warriors were built to last; OKC may never be…Understanding the Cole Slaw mix…It may be time to adjust quickly on Matt Harvey…The Yanks ain’t so tough away from their own turf…
It will be time to begin digging deeply into Cavaliers/Warriors tomorrow, so that there will be ample time to get out for some shopping on both the Series and Game 1, but there are some items worth sorting through from Game 7 in Oakland that will matter going forward, so we start there today.
What was expected was that the Warriors would be who they are, playing within themselves and never being taken out of rhythm, even when they were down big early. What was unexpected was that the Thunder would also bring a calm and collected focus, and have a plan. A bizarre aspect is that they might have actually played a better floor game (more on that in a moment) than the victors. But there was an ultimate difference in chemistry and depth, and as the Grateful Dead suite continues across these playoffs there may not be anything more appropriate than a trip to the Bay Area for “Built to Last”, not just a theme to wrap the Western Conference Finals, but in acknowledging that it is Iggy Time again, which is also important as prelude before LeBron & Company come to town. This one is live from Alpine Valley in 1989, and yes there is the sad lament that Jerry Garcia's health never allowed it to develop into a "jam" song, with so many of the key ingredients and themes just sitting there waiting for it…
You can walk on coals of fire
But sometimes you must freeze
The Warriors are capable of maintaining that level of composure, and because they have been rewarded so much for it the past two seasons, it has become a part of who they are.
Item: The OKC floor game was rather good
The Thunder came out and played good team basketball. They moved the ball, hit the boards, and played solid tactical defense. Through that ball movement, and the incorporation of the non-superstars into the mix, they got a lot of good looks on offense, but did not make them. Hence the downfall – Billy Donovan brought a game plan to get the others involved more in the mix, but those others just weren’t good enough – players other than Durant/Westbrook shot just 17-49. There were 20 assists and only seven turnovers, the latter count outstanding against the Warrior defense, but the former not what it could have been because they missed those shots.
Want to have some real fun with the sport of basketball? Go back and sort through the third quarter shot chart. OKC may well have played the better floor game in that period if you look at where the shots were taken from, and how open the shooters were, yet the Thunder were out-scored by a resounding 29-12. The Warriors had to take 12 of 23 shots from beyond the arc in the period, but they knocked down half of them. Meanwhile OKC was 0-7 from 3-point range, and the tide had turned for good.The quality of the shooters overcame the quality of the shots.
The Thunder supporting cast was simply not good enough. Now the question becomes whether we ever see this particular group together again, with Durant’s free agency perhaps the league’s biggest off-season story line.
Item: Appreciating Iggy
Steph Curry was terrific on Monday. Klay Thompson made some big-time shots. Draymond Green had few pretty moments in the series, but never stopped working. Those three key cogs scored all 25 of the Warrior fourth quarter points. But which player was on the court longer than any other in that crucial setting? Andre Iguodala. Steve Kerr changed things up by putting him in the starting lineup and he turned in a 43:04, including the entire final stanza. The only times Iguodala had reached 40 minutes all season were in a pair of overtime affairs, and he had only averaged 30:18 across the previous 16 playoff games.
It is the presence of Iguodala that brings much of that “built to last” element into play, and his fourth quarter stat line was almost sublime when you get to the heart of the matter – no shot attempts, 2 rebounds, one assist. Yet he matters so much, being out there to keep things calm under pressure, because this is still such a young group. He also only cares about winning, not stats, while also being able to guard just about anyone outside of the #5 position. Iggy’s ability to make LeBron James work so hard for everything he could get brought him an MVP in last year’s Finals, and you could just imagine LeBron seeing him out there for that extended tour of duty last night, and showing that he is ready for more – “not that damn sonofabitch again”.
Item: On Power Rating Gerrit Cole
There is the appearance of a major pitching showcase on the Tuesday board when Cole and Jose Fernandez go head-to-head, but will it live up to the billing from both ends?
Early in this season I wanted to begin liking Cole in advance and used him as a feature topic – there was talk of a changeup being added to his arsenal, and in theory the potential of a good pitcher becoming great. Great is something that we like, of course, and Cole already appeared to have the stuff to only be one rung down from there on the ladder. But his season started a bit later because of injury, so we had to wait. Now for the problem – Cole actually has not been all that good, with few hints of being able to take that next step to greatness. So time to get out the microscope for tonight.
There is nothing in this next table to lead you to believe that anything is wrong with Cole’s stuff –
W/L ERA
2015 19-8 2.60
2016 5-3 2.53
But then…
K/9 BB/9 GB% SWS% FIP SIERA
2015 8.7 1.9 48.0 10.2 2.66 3.23
2016 7.4 2.7 40.9 8.1 3.15 4.18
Despite a bottom line that might appear to be where it should, Cole has taken a drop across those four key rate stats that are outside of Baseball’s geometry, and two of the advanced pitching metrics recognize that in what has been a genuine pitching decline. These aren’t bad numbers that Cole is putting up; they simply are not as good as the way he is being priced, and that means some deeper digging in the search for answers. Might missing so much Spring Training time still have him a bit behind schedule?
Item: Your 2016 Matt Harvey data-base may be useless as a predictive tool
There have likely been more words written about Harvey here so far this season than any other pitcher, and they helped lead to the cashing of several tickets at good value. As noted yesterday it was time to back off for at least one start, and now it may be time to shift gears completely.
Harvey threw in a simulated game on Friday, which helped establish one of the keys for any cure – one must first admit there is a problem. There may indeed have been something. Harvey was his old self yesterday, hitting 98 mph four times on the radar gun, a plateau he had not reached all season, and he detailed the correction afterwards – “A lot of it had to do with timing and staying over the rubber a little bit longer; so that would kind of free up everything, free up my arm basically to get to the arm slot that I needed to.”
There are two keys here – naturally the physical issue being resolved, but also what it means to his psyche, and the confidence level of any pitcher will remain a prime handicapping issue. If he is physically Matt Harvey, and mentally Matt Harvey, then what is the value of his 3-7/6.08 through the first 10 starts going forward? Just a lot of rubbish. It may not mean a damn thing going forward, and much as it was suggested with Steven Strasburg last year, significantly lowering the weighting effect of those early outcomes will be a necessity if you are to properly power rate Harvey going forward. Now let’s see how the markets handle it.
In the Sights…
One of the topics that came up in yesterday’s post-column thread dealt with the Yankee offense, and an early-season theory that now may be axiom – on the road they only have warning track power. Against a lefty on the road it gets even tougher, and that creates the path for #917 NYY Team Total Under (7:05 Eastern) this evening, with 4 at -120 available (consider it good up to -130).
The Yankee schedule has been an exact split so far, 25 games both home and away. Yet 33 of their 52 home runs have come in the Bronx, a fair amount of them only fly ball outs to right field at other venues. How bad have things been on the road? This is pretty f’ing bad -
AVG OBP SLG OPS
.225 (#29) .289 (#28) .339 (#30) .628 (#30)
As I was preparing this last evening there was genuine drama playing out – would Brian McCann’s home run in the 9th inning elevate them above Atlanta, and out of last place in slugging percentage? Not quite, they are still last by a small tick. And how about all games vs. Left-handers, both home and away -
AVG OBP SLG OPS
.239 (#19) .306 (#20) .361 (#25) .667 (#25)
The New York offense has only been able to scratch out a single run in each game vs. J.A. Happ so far this season (two runs over 13 IP total), and I am not sure the third look helps all that much. Happ has only allowed more than three runs once through 10 starts, six of them resulting in two or less, and continues to show a developing maturity, relying less on his stuff and more on thinking through the game. There may be some that would be alarmed by his K/9 falling from 7.9 to 5.9 but take that with a grain of salt – his SWS% is actually up from 8.1 to 8.8 percent. What he has done is take his GB% to a career high, an arc that would make this the third straight season he has done that, while his 2.8 BB/9 is the second best of his career. Happ can be trusted early, and the eight innings eaten up by Marco Estrada last night also has the Blue Jays bullpen well-set.
Chicago Cubs 200 Prop (through May 30): 15
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