Point Blank – February 26
A Playoff Dress Rehearsal in Toronto (the Raptors are physically good enough, but what about the game inside the mind?)…Putting the Mavericks in perspective (and it isn’t a pretty one)…
The spotlight is shining brightly on both the Raptors and the Cavaliers as they head to tipoff tonight in Toronto, which is indeed supposed to happen when the #1 and #2 teams in the Eastern Conference meet, especially with only a three-game gap in the standings meaning that the race for the home court advantage remains undecided. That makes this the equivalent of a playoff game, which raises two key questions – first, should the Raptors be favored, based on what has happened in the 2015-16 regular season; second that the legacy aspects of the market perceptions that make them the home underdogs this evening may still be a genuine cloud hanging over the Toronto locker room.
Let’s examine this season first. The Jeff Sagarin ratings, a purely mathematical approach that is not impacted by expectation, tell us that the Raptors have played well enough to be the chalk tonight. It is not only being 38-18, but when they have had to step up they have – let’s look at the records of the teams by how they have fared against those currently in Sagarin’s Top 10:
Records vs. Top 10 Teams -
Golden State 15-0
Toronto 11-5
Cleveland 10-6
San Antonio 8-5
Chicago 12-10
Indiana 9-11
Miami 8-13
Boston 6-10
LA Clippers 5-10
Oklahoma City 4-8
How about narrowing it to an even higher tier? There are four teams other than Toronto playing at a .600 clip or better, and they have each been to the Air Canada Centre for a game already –
Toronto (+3) 103 Cleveland 99
Toronto (+7.5) 109 Golden State 112
Toronto (+6) 97 San Antonio 94
Toronto (-2.5) 112 LA Clippers 94
It makes the Raptors 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS across those games, beating the spread by a significant 36 points, much of that significance being public perception.
But should there be an * next to those games compared to tonight’s setting? If this is indeed a playoff prelude, does it add an uncomfortable pressure to the Raptors? And if they were not perceived as being a major challenge when those “A” level teams played here earlier, have they now gone from being the hunted to the hunter, the earlier Cleveland defeat, and the way the current standings lay out, having the visitors ready to throw a heavier punch?
This is one of those key arenas in handicapping, gauging when a “B” team may have the moxie to move their way up to being an “A”.
Here is a key – while those other elite teams have a legacy of playoff success that is a part of their mind-sets, the Raptors showing vs. Washington last April was simply abysmal, an 0-4 bow-out in which they fell to the market expectations by 54 points. They never really did get up off the canvas after losing the opener of that series in overtime at home, and did not even answer the bell after falling down 3-0, losing Game #4 125-94.
How much of that will be in their heads tonight? It makes for an intriguing case study, and in particular what I will be looking for is the play from the top down, putting Kyle Lowry under the prime microscope. Much as the Raptors as a team have been under-valued, based on how they have stepped up against the other elite teams, look at the place Lowry has placed himself at vs. the other elite players –
2015-16 Real +/-
1. Stephen Curry 10.6
2. Russell Westbrook 9.3
3. Draymond Green 9.2
4. Kawhi Leonard 8.8
5. LeBron James 8.3
6. Kyle Lowry 7.2
That is some pretty heady company, and when Lowryted had to step up in those four home games against the “A” teams here earlier he did – 108 points, 27 assists and 15 rebounds, while dueling with the likes of Stephen Curry and Chris Paul (Cleveland came to won without Kyrie Irving). The skills are obviously there to get it done, but for tonight how about the confidence and swagger? This is his 10th NBA season, and he has never been the starting point guard for a team that won a playoff series (he was a reserve for the Rockets when they beat Portland in the first round back in 2008-09).
How heavy is the psychological impact of tonight’s game? Perhaps so much that Dwane Casey and Lowry spent part of yesterday trying to downplay it. First, from Casey - “The game should be a challenge for us but it’s not going to determine our season. It’s one game. I’m just as concerned about the next game in Detroit as I am about the one (Friday) night.”
Then Lowry - “I don’t think it’s a measuring stick and the reason I say that is because it’s kind of annoying to hear it all the time. It’s not. It’s just another game for us to get better. Another game for us to go out and try and win. We can’t worry about measuring (up) to this or that because we still haven’t gotten out of the first round of the playoffs.”
Note a real key in the Lowry comment - “annoying to hear it all the time”. Athletes are extremely aware of the communications flow in this mass media age because it is so loud that they cannot control the volume. Instead they have to learn to live with it, and tonight will be an opportunity to see whether the Raptors really have made strides, to the point where they can be a force beyond April.
About Last Night (sort of)…
This is the spot that I was saving to do a prelude to Golden State/Oklahoma City on Saturday, and detail just how bad the Thunder have been since the All Star break, losing three times outright as a favorite already, and allowing an average of 110.5 points per game in the process. Last night at New Orleans four different Pelicans scored more than 20, the offense shooting 52.2 percent, and having 29 assists vs. only 12 turnovers. Billy Donovan’s team just can’t guard. But I think a different take is emerging that may be useful through the cycle ahead – just how much trouble is Dallas in right now?
Amidst this ugly week of basketball by the Thunder was a 116-103 win over the Mavericks in Dallas on Wednesday, a game in which OKC led by as many as 22 points in the fourth quarter. It begs for some perspective on the fading fortunes of Rick Carlisle’s team.
Dallas has played 13 home games in calendar 2016. The Mavericks had the lead at the end of regulation in only three of them. As awful as that sounds, the reality is even worse – those three games were vs. the 76ers (8-49), Suns (14-44, but currently trending even worse), and Nets (16-42). What has kept them treading water in the standings, and prevented the markets from taking proper notice, was the ability to gut out overtime wins here vs. the unimposing likes of the Timberwolves and Kings.
Where has it gone wrong? There is simply a little too much age across the board, without young energy being added to blend in. While experience does bring some savvy to win close games, and hold up on the road, the limited physical skill set of this team was summed up succinctly by Rick Carlisle earlier this week - "We've got to manage the details of the game extremely well to win."
There is much to be learned from that short, but precise, statement. The Mavericks are about to close out their longest home stand of the season with four games against losing teams – Denver, Minnesota, Orlando and Sacramento. While they may be able to do just enough to win a few of those, perhaps even all, it could set up a misleading impression in the marketplace that can be taken advantage of.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA…
Some of the wheels for Oklahoma State are off, Phil Forte, Jawun Evans, and likely Jeffrey Carroll again (the school's official send-out has him out of the lineup). What is making things even more difficult for Travis Ford is that a few of the remaining tires are also flat – Tyree Griffin is playing through a sprained ankle and Leyton Hammonds has a stress reaction in his right foot, with neither of those two likely playing at Oklahoma on Wednesday, or today, if there were other options available. Those options are not there, and it helps to get #621 West Virginia (6:00 Eastern) into play. There literally may not be a worse team to face if you are short-handed than the depth and tenacious presses that Bob Huggins’ Mountaineers are going to bring
For all of those Oklahoma State issues, this line has not been adjusted enough – West Virginia was -14.5 in Morgantown earlier, rolling 77-60, and that was with Evans and Carroll playing 72 minutes, scoring 23 points, with Carroll leading the team with 10 rebounds and Evans leading in assists with five. Now it is a major matchup headache for Ford in so many aspects. There is almost no depth at PG, where 5-9/165 sophomore Griffin would struggle vs. the relentless Mountaineer presses even at full health, and the battle on the boards is awful at both ends – in particular trying to clear the defensive boards, where the Cowboys are dead last in the Big 12 (WVU is #2 in the conference in offensive rebounding). Ford seems somberly resigned to a lost season (12-16 overall, 3-12 in conference) that offers little remaining reason for optimism – “It’s a challenge, like nothing I’ve ever been through. Or like nothing I’ve seen.”
West Virginia has been off since Monday, and with a home game vs. Texas Tech on Wednesday not a major look-ahead, there is no distraction here – the Mountaineers can do what they do, and by pressing and hitting the boards it would not be a surprise for this margin to get into double figures. With Pinnacle and CRIS holding the fort down at -6.5 this morning, that is more than fair value for this matchup.
In the Sights, Sunday NCAA…
Many times there are complex handicapping approaches discussed here, using subtle factors that the markets often do not price properly into the equations to find edges. Today is different – I will have a ticket on #825 Duke (2:00 Eastern) at Pittsburgh because the Blue Devils are simply better.
Jamie Dixon’s Panthers have been written about earlier here this season, in particular how the program has lost its footing. Once upon a time recruiting players from the New York metro area was a cornerstone, leading to a physical style of basketball that competed well in the Big East. But those players are seemingly not as interested in playing in the ACC, and the recruiting pattern has changed drastically – only junior Michael Young is from that area, each of the last two recruiting classes coming up empty. It is showing on the court, where the Panthers are 0-6 vs. ranked teams this season, and they have not competed well against the upper echelon of the ACC – it has been an 0-4 SU and ATS slide vs. Louisville (twice), North Carolina and Virginia, coming up 39.5 points short of the market projections in those games.
The Blue Devils indeed have a depth problem, but it is not a huge factor today, as they play for only the second time in eight days. A shorter rotation has helped them to develop a tighter chemistry, especially at the defensive end, and with plenty of +1 available this morning there is solid value for a setting in which we only have to ask the better players to win the game, courtesy of the favorable market pricing.
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