Point Blank – December 31
Bowling for Dollar$ - New Year’s Day Games...But not before the Pelicans help us close out 2015 in style...Trevone Boykin will Remember the Alamo for all the wrong reasons...
Now time to begin working on the first football of 2016, perhaps a bit of the luster taken off of New Year’s Day now that we are in a Playoff era, but still some nice matchups, and opportunities to make money. For Thursday night, the NBA hardwoods are also offering us a setting that I believe works.
Since there are multiple topics today, and many of you will be watching a lot of football the next few days and might need an occasional break from bad announcers, how about a little musical interlude. In the spirit of this night, one that tends to spark reflection more than any other, the wonderful “Auld Lang Syne” by Robert Burns has been adopted by many cultures as the proper backdrop. I agree with that, even though most folks rarely get beyond the opening stanza and chorus, losing much of the wonderful subtlety and sincerity of Burns’ timeless classic.
Many of you are going to be watching games around the clock through Vikings/Packers Sunday night, of course, which means little time for the kind of reflection that Burns is calling for anyway. So how about a compromise here, my appreciation for all of the great ideas that have been brought to these threads over the past year, a sincere wish for a Happy New Year to all of you, and a rendition that likely none of you have ever heard, yet one that seems appropriate for the timing of a sports wagering frenzy. I present a classic from Gary Glitter, live in Glasgow back in 1989 -
That “cup o’kindness” Burns referred to sure as hell wasn’t coffee or tea, making the sentiment all the more profound. May your imbibing this evening, should you choose to do that, be within the parameters of sweet dignity, hopefully just enough to celebrate the best of the past, with no need to literally drown something out. Then there is a lot of work to be done…
Item: The ACC defenses continue to struggle
I am updating this theme from yesterday because both Florida State and Clemson are in play from that league, and while they are much better than their lesser brethren, it is worth noting that through seven bowl games ACC teams have allowed 39.7 points and 567.3 yards per game. It may matter for Florida State early, with a young Seminole defense struggling vs. mobile QBs when faced with that challenge, and I already laid out what I expect to be problems for the Clemson defense in yesterday’s column.
After that it will be a wrap for the ACC, as we move on to Friday.,.
Item: Yes, Iowa did not belong in the Playoff talk, but was Stanford ever really anything special?
The Iowa Hawkeyes were a prime topic of discussion a few times here this season, most of it stemming from the fact that while the Playoff committee had them in the mix until the Big 10 title game, they never rose above #15 on my ratings. You can get a good recap of why I had them placed were I did here. So does that mean I see opportunity with Stanford? Actually, no – the Cardinal may have been every bit as over-rated as the Hawkeyes.
At issue for Stanford this season was a defense that was quite young, and in the complex schemes of David Shaw/Lance Anderson, experience matters. They were nowhere near the dominant units of the past, and did not necessarily improve as the season went on – they closed the regular season with three straight home games, and a chance to show growth, but instead Oregon, California and Notre Dame scored 96 points and gained 1,462 yards.
Stanford could have easily finished 8-4 and in a minor bowl. The Cardinal escaped at Washington State when the Cougars missed a FG on the final play, and they needed a face-mask penalty to get into late FG position to escape vs. Notre Dame. I would have liked to opposed either of these teams if they got matched up against someone else, but alas that did not happen.
Item: That SEC West cycle, but why I am not betting Ole Miss
The SEC West cycle of Tuesday and Wednesday, LSU, Auburn, Mississippi State and Texas A&M all ending up with an “In the Sights…” designation, paid well, and was just a play two away in Nashville from sweeping. So Ole Miss is next in line, right? Actually no.
The key to the concept was laid out specifically – the SEC West is not the nation’s best division because the teams at the top are so much better than their counterparts from other leagues, but rather those at the middle and bottom, because of the outstanding depth this branch has. That has been evident the last couple of days. But the Sugar Bowl model is different. I think that every bit of the talent advantages that Mississippi has are reflected in this price range, especially with Robert Nkemdiche out. For some reason a guy that has the talent to be taken in the upper half of the first round in the NFL draft, pending how teams sort through his recent off-field issues, has not caused the slightest trickle in the pricing, with the line even going up a slight amount since his suspension was announced.
So after dancing with the SEC West throughout so far it is time to sit this one out, although earlier in the day there is a way to get involved with a team from the other side of the conference, which I will get to in a moment.
Item: Following the Trevone Boykin saga
I will be delving into the Saturday bowl games in tomorrow’s Weekend Edition column, but the big story this morning is TCU QB Trevone Boykin being suspended after an altercation with police in San Antonio. The latest link with updated information can be found here.
It will be interesting to see how the markets react. I grade Boykin as the single most important player to his team in college football this season, and the oddsmakers could potentially miss their mark here – although TCU nearly upset Oklahoma in Norman in the one game he did not play at all, the passing game connected on only 13-29 attempts, with three interceptions.
About Last Night…
Dallas 114 Golden State 91 is certainly a power ratings shifter for those that do pure math models, and many will paint bold strokes about the game showing how much Stephen Curry means to the Warriors. Here is what you really need to do with the game – throw it out. Or if you assign weight to games like I do, on a scale of 1-10 it rates a “1”. It was not just Curry being out, but also Harrison Barnes, Leandro Barbosa and Festus Ezili. There just is not much of statistical integrity to be found from that game – when Brandon Rush plays 35:26, you know what it basically means.
It does throw a major curve ball at the oddsmakers in terms of pricing Warriors/Rockets tonight, and no one was in a hurry to deal that one this morning. It looks like Houston -1.5 and 210.5 is the educated guess, and it will make for some intriguing market watching throughout the day, especially since the Warriors will not have a shoot-around to give any clues as to who can suit up tonight. But while watching the line shift around, there is another that you can lock into...
In the Sights, NBA…
Excited about being in New Orleans for New Year’s Eve? I know many that would jump at the opportunity, and I even have some close friends that are Ole Miss boosters, and are looking forward to not only a nice evening out, plus the long sleep that Friday affords before the Rebels kick off in the Sugar Bowl. I do not consider the L.A. Clippers to be among those that are happy to be here, however, and it helps to put #510 New Orleans (-2.5 is easy to find) into play.
This one works from two directions, both playing against the Clippers, and the Pelicans bringing the proper play-on focus. The L.A. schedule was written about here a couple of weeks ago, a bizarre layout that has had the Clippers dealing with a court change 12 times in 14 games (some logs will make it look like 13, but while they were considered the road team against the Lakers on Christmas Day, it was on their usual home floor at the Staples Center). Now that long slog comes to an end, this being their fourth road game on this last leg, across three time zones in six nights, with a stretch of nearly three full weeks back in the Pacific Time Zone to follow, five of the next six games at home. Having won last night in Charlotte to make it 3-0 on the trip it is even easier to consider it “mission accomplished”, and bring something less than their best game here.
It is a much different story for the Pelicans, who have the rarity of a home game with two full days to prepare, days that also help Anthony Davis to heal after he dinged a knee at Orlando on Monday. It has been a disjointed season so in which injuries have prevented the pieces from coming together smoothly, but New Orleans has been able to beat the Cavaliers and Spurs on this floor, and should bring far more energy and focus to this setting than the visitors.
In the Sights, January 1 Bowls…
Is there a better hangover cure on New Year’s Day than waking up to a winner? I believe there is part of a theme that we can continue with, and while #263 Tennessee (still plenty of -8 out there) was not a member of the SEC West, but rather that weaker East grouping, the gap between the Vols and Northwestern is wider than the markets are calling. With the biggest edge of all coming in explosiveness, I see a chance for this one to break open, and if indeed it does the Wildcats are a most unlikely back-door candidate.
There has been no question of the Tennessee talent, Butch Jones doing an excellent job of recruiting, to the point at which the Volunteers could stand toe-to-toe with Playoff opponents like Oklahoma and Alabama, leading each in the fourth quarter. They were not quite ready to close the deal yet, which was also the case vs. Florida and Arkansas, but intense games vs. that class helps a team to grow up. Tennessee did, closing out with a 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS run in which one of the non-covers was hardly a blemish, a 24-0 win over North Texas in which Jones was content to play conservatively in the second half, giving ample playing time to many reserves. There is tremendous upside here, and the momentum of that late-season run turns this game into a building block for a run that could have them on the verge of Playoff contention next season.
Northwestern will not be part of those Tuesday committee discussions anytime soon. The Wildcats played with a lot of grit, and when games were close that grit was enough – they were 8-0 in scoreboards decided by 10 points or less, including one late-season stretch in which they won four straight by a combined 17 points. But when they lost contact, they really lost contact, getting dominated by 38 vs. Michigan and 30 vs. Iowa. The playmakers are not there to accelerate and attack from behind, and I believe speed on defense is also an issue in this matchup, with the Wildcats not being stretched across the field all that much in the Big 10 this season (they did not face Ohio State or Michigan State).
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